Ahh yes. According to Rasmussen Ohio will vote 2 points to the left of the country
BUT I DO UNDERSTAND THAT RASMUSSEN’S NATIONAL POLL HAS NO RELATIONSHIP TO ITS OHIO POLL. You can only compare one of his national Polls to another of his National Polls and not to any of his state Polls. And visa versa.
Because his national poll is a rolling poll you can only compare polls on certain days. I am not sure of his rules on that.
Any poll is only a snapshot of the portion of the electorate polled. The There is no guarantee that the sample polled will be the sample that shows up to vote. There is no guarantee someone polled will not change their vote.
Conservatives don't understand the system of Early voting and VBM, Seniors by and large whom voting R will not be voting early and will go to the polls on Election day and people under 70 will vote early or vote by mail. Many Seniors will have difficulty understanding how to VBM, so they will chose not to vote early.
Trump has not lead in a single natl poll and RCP has him down 6 to 8 points and Rassy is an arm of Fox News, Rassy is not a reliable pollster, and OH will go Dem
There are so many misconstructions in the above, I do not know where to start.
In many states voter can vote early in person. I am 76 and have voted early in person since it was permitted where I voted.
The time a person votes will not have any effect on poll results, unless the voter dies before voting, or fails for some reason does not vote.
Hillary did lead in every traditional poll conducted in 2016. Hilary got 48.2% of the vote. Fox News predicted 48% in its poll conducted 11-3 to 5. Trump received 45.93%. UPI/CVoter predicted 46% in its polls November 1-6 and October 30-November 5. No other pollsters got that close.
Only the Los Angles Times had an on line poll conducted October 30-Nov 5 that had Trump winning 48% to to Hillary’s 43%. Obviously the numbers were off.
Due to the way this country is dived, this scenario could occur again.
In 2016 the Democrats ran a woman, who many believed had violated the Espionage Act and was going to drag a husband who had lied under oath while President in a legal proceeding back into the White House with her to fool around more women.
This year they are running a man, who is clearly descending into dementia. We will see how that works out.
Do not knock Rassy. He came closest in 2008 predicting a vote of 52% 46% in a poll conducted 10/31 - 11-2. The actual vote was 52.86% to 45.6%. It went to head in 2012. He did some bad polling in 2012.
