NV Emerson: UTDH +7

[Arkansas Yankee]

Kavanaugh!  Kavanaugh!

Nevada is not as Democratic as you think.  Hillary only carried it by 2.42%.  Trump may have been the worst Republican for Nevada.  I have no doubt but Rubio was done really well there. Heller is in the Rubio mold.  Masto only carried it by 2.33%. 

In 2014 the Republicans swept the statewide offices and the legislature. 

In 2012 as Obama won by 6.6%, Heller was able to win by 1.16%

538 has Nevada pegged as 1.3% more Republican than the nation.  Even before this poll 538 gave Heller a 52% chance to carry the state.  It predicted the vote as Heller 48.8% Rosen 48.4%. 

The Democrats were living on the generic to carry Nevada this year.  Then you pulled the Kavanaugh sneak attack.  Boomerang!

538 has now  moved Heller to a 59.3 chance to win or 3 in 5 with a popular vote of 49.4% to 47.9%

[Arkansas Yankee]

I’m not surprised that Heller is able to keep this race relatively close since NV is obviously far more Republican than CO or VA (where Democrats can make up for underwhelming Hispanic turnout by winning over enough college-educated white voters and other reliable voters). So yeah, he could win, but if he does, it won’t be by 7% and Democrats will have far worse things to come to terms with than the outcome of this race. Considering moving this from Lean D to Tossup if an actual high-quality pollster shows Heller ahead, though.

Siena and Marist already show him with a lead.