Climate change obviously will have some kind of impact on southern migration, but it's hard to say what exactly, in part because a lot depends on what we do about it. I feel a less confident than most of you all in saying anything decisive.
I also think people think of this in regional terms when that might not be the right unit of analysis. Within the south, there are areas at much greater risk of various climate impacts and areas with lower risk, and there are important cities in each category. The same is true of the Midwest too; Chicago is often touted as a potential climate change metropolis but has worse prospects for heat and flooding than a place like Atlanta.
True,
a heat index of 125 F is nothing to scoff at.
It does seem like Florida, and South Florida in particular is starting to approach carrying capacity and experience this. However, I don't think this generalizes. Given the surplus flat land and general lack of zoning regulations, you could probably fit the entire current US population into the Texas Triangle cities +/- a 2 hour commute and still have lower housing prices there than California or most of the NE.
Just because we theoretically
could replicate Uttar Pradesh or Jiangsu population density by fitting 300+ million people within the state of Texas doesn't mean we should. Especially given how vulnerable Texas's electrical grid has proven to be in recent years.
