What types of voters flip in a Trump v Biden rematch?

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^ and Asian Americans, though they don’t get much attention (cause so many live in NYC and Cali), are also trending right. Here in NYC, there are some recognizable Chinese-American clusters in South Brooklyn that have been trending Republican for multiple election cycles. They were one of the many factors for Lee Zeldin’s solid performance last November

https://news.yahoo.com/more-asian-americans-voting-republican-230020012.html

Cope. The NYC Chinatowns were never not going to trend R in local elections barring a Steve Miller-type takeover of the GOP. This seemed rather obvious to me as far back as the Obama era.

Also the R trends the Nextshark article you linked speak of aren't necessarily "bad" or "preventable" for Dems so long as it's due to increased turnout from newer naturalized immigrants breaking close to 50-50. Blacks and Latinos also trended R in 2020 due to increased turnout.

Hispanics and Asians will trend Biden’s way.

This implies significant R trends among any or all other racial groups.

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Biden 2020 / Trump 2024:
1. People who fell down one of the anti-vaxx, CRT, or anti-trans conspiracy rabbit holes since the election.
2. People who think that we haven't gotten any less divided since Biden took office, credit the pre-pandemic economy to Trump, and figure "If we're going to be divided anyway, might as well have a good economy."

Trump 2020 / Biden 2024:
1. Conservatives for whom January 6th was the red line.
2. Pro-choice people who thought Roe was settled law.
3. Some moderates who tend to favor incumbents.

#2, for both groups, are going to be the largest factor IMO.

This is probably the best take so far. I don't want to attribute swings or trends to voter demographic groups because I feel like a lot of that will be determined by lower-propensity voters who weren't eligible to or didn't feel like voting in previous cycles.

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Bro every word of your response backed up my points. In what universe were the NYC Chinatown Chinese not going to shift hard R? A huge part of why POC don't vote GOP is white supremacy, but what "white supremacy" is there in the most racially diverse big city in the US that has the most even breakdown of racial groups and the most diverse array of immigrant nationalities? NYC Republicans were inevitably going to make gains with every nonwhite racial group once Dems became maxxed out.

CNN's exit polls are kind of sketch, but even if there was that big of a decline in percentage margin, the massive increase in eligible Asian American voter population over the last 20 years still translates to a net D gain in raw votes- ESPECIALLY in swing states where Dems have won the EC and Senate races.

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It helps them with all minorities, not just Asians.

But African Americans are the only ones not budging so far.

However gaining with Minorities doesn't help you win Presidencies or the Senate, unless you win 60%+ of them. At that point New York flips and California becomes a swing state.
 
So far it will help the GOP, but only in the House.

I do think there are reasons why the NYC Chinatowns specifically would be more susceptible to supporting local/state/federal R's than Chinese Americans elsewhere would be- or other Asian groups or immigrant groups in NYC for that matter. But that's irrelevant to this thread, and I won't comment on communities I have no real-life exposure to or interaction with.

In any case, I wouldn't be so bullish on where Dems stand with Black voters either. Sky-high margins of victory don't matter if turnout plummets.