TalkElections is my publicly visible safe space for being an amateur pundit, so I think I deserve some credit for my 2021 predictions without knowing Dobbs or student loan forgiveness would happen. (Or that national Dems would stupidly try to rig certain R primaries in favor of Trumptard extremists, not that I think this had much impact). Still quite happy about Congressional Dems getting their S019 together to pass the Inflation Reduction Act.
Time for some mild D bloomerism *knocks on wood*
1) GOP gains less than 20 seats in the House
2) Senate remains tied.
3) Fetterman beats Dr. Oz in PA.
4) In SoCal, at least one of Michelle Steel and/or Mike Garcia lose reelection.
Glad I called Fetterman and Öz winning their primaries months in advance 
Not very confident in my original House and Senate predictions beyond R House D Senate, but I stand with at least one of Steele and/or Garcia losing.
I was correct on 1 and 3 (maybe 2 too with the qualification that the GA runoff won't decide Senate control) but 4 was clearly a bunch of hopium in a year with 8% inflation.
Re 4: while I'd have preferred both Mike Garcia and Michelle Steel lost reelection, I feel vindicated on some level that CA-45 is closer than CA-27. Steel's unabashed red-baiting and general density polarization aside, CA-45 was more of an open seat since very little of Steel's old district is in the new one, which meant Chen had more opportunity to gain ground with new voters than Smith would've as a third-time challenger to the incumbent.
Would not have expected 1 to happen (like at all), given the extent to which downballot Dems collapsed in NY and FL despite the FL gerrymander limiting the number of competitive House races there. Definitely did not think it was possible for Governor "don't say gay and also muh CRT" to win FL Latinos outright until Hurricane Ian and the early vote started coming in.
I was more bullish on NV-SEN for Dems than most of Atlas, because of Nevada's large Asian population and the state's rapid growth in recent years. I've noticed that states and metros that have trended D in recent years generally have larger Asian populations, while the reverse is true for R trending places like Florida. I also feel like there is stronger White-Asian polarization in the West (and possibly Midwest based on exit polls) than elsewhere in the country, and that diversification from transplants and international immigrants is keeping the D floor relatively high.
My premature R House majority predictions based on the Election Night early returns in SoCal turned out to be correct. I figured there was zero possibility of either Steel or Garcia losing if both were up by double digits with 40-50% of the vote in on Election Night. To me this meant the GOP would win all of the tossup seats in the West that hadn't already been called, which would guarantee a R House majority that I never thought would be in question.
