2023 Chicago Mayoral/Aldermanic Elections

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Do we have data or estimates of the racial composition of the electorate? Seems Vallas will win whites by a solid but not landslide margin, win Asians in a landslide, and Johnson will win blacks pretty heavily and Hispanics seem to be split but maybe leaning Johnson of Chuys endorsement matters as much as people think. I wonder what percentage of the electorate will fall into those four groups though given a normal level of turnout. Does anybody have any thoughts on this?

Wouldn't be surprised if Vallas does better with Asians than any other racial group (I have no on-the-ground knowledge of Chicago proper), but the Chuy endorsement makes me think it won't be a landslide. Would be curious to see how turnout and percentage margins differ in subordinate-class enclaves versus areas with more upscale and highly educated Asians.

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https://twitter.com/jimdaleywrites/status/1638914308779409409?s=20
Here are the full cross tabs. Victory doesn’t have the best track record, but if those Latino #s are correct, that is really impressive. Remember that Vallas was a clear second in Latino wards in the first round with Johnson far behind.

Also impressive in a historical context. The last time there was a Black/Latino coalition vs a white candidate was… Harold Washington?

The further-right candidate only winning a plurality of Latino voters is impressive in a historical context? What would be more typical cleavage for a early 21st century Chicago mayoral election?

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https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1643259629302870017
Early vote looks very favorable to Vallas. The three wards singled out had the below results in the first round (per Weigel):

41st ward: Vallas 72%, Johnson 7%
11th ward: Vallas 58%, Johnson 14%
19th ward: Vallas 62%, Johnson 9%

Not surprised that the ward containing Chicago's Chinatown was the least pro-Vallas and the most pro-Johnson of the three, although I have no idea if this is because the ward is more Asian or because it's the least White.

538 preview: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/chicago-wisconsin-elections/

Someone got paid to write this. My God. Worst political writing about the city I've ever seen.

The worst political writing about the city, so far.

Was it bad because it tried to paint Chicago's residential polarization based on NYC's patterns, or because of the Frango reference?

Chicago’s political geography is not all that different from the political geography of many other American cities. Like in New York City, the city center is full of Democratic elites, while the quarters farthest from downtown are anti-establishment and even conservative. As in Los Angeles, the most progressive parts of town are gentrifying neighborhoods that are relatively white but are still racially diverse. And like in Boston, Minneapolis, Detroit and St. Louis, identity is just as, if not more, important to voters of color than a candidate’s political persuasion.

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https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1643259629302870017
Early vote looks very favorable to Vallas. The three wards singled out had the below results in the first round (per Weigel):

41st ward: Vallas 72%, Johnson 7%
11th ward: Vallas 58%, Johnson 14%
19th ward: Vallas 62%, Johnson 9%

Not surprised that the ward containing Chicago's Chinatown was the least pro-Vallas and the most pro-Johnson of the three, although I have no idea if this is because the ward is more Asian or because it's the least White.

Asians were Vallas’s best racial group in the first round IIRC.

I suspect the Asian voters of Chicago proper were less supportive of Vallas in aggregate during the primary than the non-gentrifier White voters were, and would certainly expect them to be less one-sidedly pro-Vallas in the runoff.

In any case, it will be interesting to see how the Latino areas break.

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https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1643259629302870017
Early vote looks very favorable to Vallas. The three wards singled out had the below results in the first round (per Weigel):

41st ward: Vallas 72%, Johnson 7%
11th ward: Vallas 58%, Johnson 14%
19th ward: Vallas 62%, Johnson 9%

Not surprised that the ward containing Chicago's Chinatown was the least pro-Vallas and the most pro-Johnson of the three, although I have no idea if this is because the ward is more Asian or because it's the least White.

Asians were Vallas’s best racial group in the first round IIRC.

I suspect the Asian voters of Chicago proper were less supportive of Vallas in aggregate during the primary than the non-gentrifier White voters were, and would certainly expect them to be less one-sidedly pro-Vallas in the runoff.

In any case, it will be interesting to see how the Latino areas break.

Obligatory meme avatar aside, I will reserve judgment on presumptive Mayor-elect Johnson's performance until after his term starts. Looking forward to precinct-level turnout and margin data in the meantime.

Let's Go Brandon! But also... let's go, Brandon.

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https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1643259629302870017
Early vote looks very favorable to Vallas. The three wards singled out had the below results in the first round (per Weigel):

41st ward: Vallas 72%, Johnson 7%
11th ward: Vallas 58%, Johnson 14%
19th ward: Vallas 62%, Johnson 9%

Not surprised that the ward containing Chicago's Chinatown was the least pro-Vallas and the most pro-Johnson of the three, although I have no idea if this is because the ward is more Asian or because it's the least White.

Asians were Vallas’s best racial group in the first round IIRC.

I suspect the Asian voters of Chicago proper were less supportive of Vallas in aggregate during the primary than the non-gentrifier White voters were, and would certainly expect them to be less one-sidedly pro-Vallas in the runoff.

In any case, it will be interesting to see how the Latino areas break.

Current NYT results for the aforementioned wards

41st ward: Vallas 87%, Johnson 13% (3rd in turnout)- airport
11th ward: Vallas 75%, Johnson 25% (20th in turnout)- contains Chinatown
19th ward: Vallas 74%, Johnson 26% (1st in turnout)- SW corner

April 9 edit: they all ended up around Vallas 73% Johnson 26%

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Here's an interactive map of Round 2 (this one is better than others because the person running it is updating as mail votes come in):

https://election-night-map.web.app/Illinois/2023-Chicago-Mayoral/

The contrast between the IL Medical District + Univ. of Illinois Chicago precincts and the Chinatown precincts is striking. Johnson won 70-80% in the former, Vallas won 70-85% in the latter.

The blob of strong Vallas precincts near the pier seems to correspond to the touristy part of the city with all the skyscrapers and Instagram tags. While Little India near the suburb of Lincolnwood goes from Tilt Johnson-light blue in the east to Titanium Vallas-dark red in the west.

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Good post. Here's what that looks like on a map (source), for those wondering. The colors reflecting the intensity of voter support in both the Black neighborhoods and the Vallas White ones are much less intense than decades ago, and that's ignoring how the Hispanic (formerly White) areas split down the middle. Vallas had black support thanks to the Wilson and Alderman endorsements, as well as Conservative/Safety motived voters. The cities white vote today is a lot more Liberal Democratic than it was in the late 20th century, so Johnson has support even outside of the Progressive parts of the North Side.

I know not all of the votes have been counted yet, but just look at that >50% decline in raw turnout over 40 years. Chicago’s population only decreased by ~10% between the 1980 and 2020 censuses.