What are the chances and possible consequences of democratisation in China?None, because the strongest forces outside the ruling clique are a cult, nationalists, and Maoists. If they do make a democracy, it will be a democracy in name only with 1-2 parties that are made up of ex CCP officials.
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What would a democratic China look like?The most potent forces in the public consciousness today are Maoism and Nationalism. The "mainstream" CCP today is a compromise between these two lines of thought, which has produced a capitalist middle ground that people "consent" to because it's working so far.
A Chinese democracy would be the same thing, just polarized. There would be a Maoist Party, appealing to people who feel left behind in the New China, and a Nationalist Party, appealing to the elite, who would trade majorities with each other.
They would broadly agree on a much more aggressive foreign policy than what the CCP, motivated mainly by economic interests, is pursuing now.
Because everyone with any kind of government experience is or was a CCP member, the parties would be led by largely the same people who are running the CCP today. Just, instead of using the "collective decision making process" I described in the section about CCP plasticity, they'd form 2 distinct factions - leftist and rightist - and fight their battles in public.
Q: What do you think the biggest policy differences would be between Maoists and Nationalists? And how do they differ from the current regime?
Good question - Maoists want to adhere to China's constitution, which is Communist. They would increase state control over the economy, invest in the underdeveloped provinces, and restore Mao's "iron bowl" of guaranteed employment and welfare. They would make a better social security net and ban public display of extravagance.
Nationalists wouldn't be averse to officially becoming capitalist and democratic - becoming a democracy would make Taiwan rejoin China the next time the Kuomintang wins an election there. Nationalists would in other regards do exactly what the regime is doing vis a vis militarization and ethnic policy, but they would get rid of affirmative action, which is more aggressive in China than anywhere else in the world.
The current government is a compromise between the two. It's cracking down on minorities while preserving affirmative action, it's officially Communist while de facto capitalist, but still maintains state industries. It's following the nationalist recommendations for militarization, while maintaining Communist indoctrination of the rank and file of the army. It's investing in underdeveloped provinces while not offering welfare benefits. It's cracking down on public displays of extravagance through the "anti-corruption" campaign while allowing extravagance behind closed doors.
Q: Is the nationalist party comparable to American racists? Are the the ones strongly supporting repression of minorities in china?
Yes, but more closely with Japanese fascists.
Q: Is there any green or environmental consciousness in China or any organisation s that advocate such policies?
Yes! There are lots of environmental associations and they are probably the single biggest “opposition” movement. Every year in China there are several hundred “mass incidents” (protests) and many of them are about the environment.
