Non-Whites as a whole are probably trending R simply because the Black share of the non-white vote is decreasing as the Hispanic and Asian population increases.
Back in 1988, Black voters were 65% of non-white voters, and there has been a steady decline in that share.
1992: 65%
1996: 60%
2000: 59%
2004: 54%
2008: 53%
2012: 51%
2016: 47%
2020: 43% (source: Catalist)
The recent 538 Politics article on how white liberals and white conservatives are affected by the changing racial dynamics of the US was also really interesting. I think the idea of "performative wokeness" being more strongly associated with the Dems explains much of why white liberals and white moderates swung D rather than towards the incumbent- even after controlling for educational attainment, occupation, religiosity, and other demographic variables.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-politics-of-white-liberals-and-white-conservatives-are-shaped-by-whiteness/On the other hand, white liberals often feel motivated to act in racially egalitarian ways to distance themselves from these same negative stereotypes of whiteness. The thinking may go something along the lines of, “Those white people are ‘bad,’ but I want to see myself as a good person.” However, committing to antiracist action is not a straightforward solution, as it is not always effective at staving off the negative emotions that come with acknowledging a legacy of racism. Moreover, this strategy can fall short in actually addressing racial inequality, as it does not alway prioritize the practical needs of people of color over the emotional and psychological needs of white antiracists.
