2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Washington

[Kamala's side hoe]

My attempt at a fair map



https://davesredistricting.org/join/821d43c3-221e-4e42-9920-03adb99c888c

WA-01: Clinton+36, D+15
WA-02: Clinton+6, D+3
WA-03: Trump+8, R+4
WA-04: Trump+21, R+12
WA-05: Trump+13, R+8
WA-06: Clinton+11, D+6
WA-07: Clinton+16, D+7
WA-08: Clinton+29, D+10
WA-09: Clinton+78, D+37!!!!
WA-10: Clinton+11, D+5

In theory this map should work as a fairly standard 7-3 map, with districts 2 and 3 being swingy but still clearly benefiting one side over the other. Districts 6 and 10 might flip if there is both a scandal and a big R wave but they are unlikely to do so.

Finally district 9 (coverin Seattle) is a Dem landslide that borders on comical

I've never seen an Eastern Washington quite like that. So novelty points there.
More generally, taken as a whole, overall this is a decent map.

Yeah the I-90 corridor east of the Cascades looks a bit gerrymandered considering how blue WA-08 and how red WA-04 are.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Yes, I am aware of the road contiguity issue with those two precincts in King County. I don't really care too much; it is just two precincts and that would result in an extra county split I don't want.
Big change is the Cascades crossing switching to the south. I tried to keep county splits to the near-minimum and compactness high, pairing urban with urban, unifying Seattle in one CD, and drawing two seats within the suburbs.
I also ended the majority-minority status of the 9th (if 2019 population estimates is anything to go by). It was an utterly useless idea anyway. That being said, the 9th still is likely majority-minority under eventual 2020 census figures and it boasts a very significant Asian minority.
The 8th remains competitive, and the 3rd becomes more winnable for Democrats.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/924c96ba-3681-4252-9b98-ad4c3db9eac8

3rd district = northern suburbs from Kirkland all the way to Everett proper in Snohomish
7th district = all of Seattle proper + Vashon Island
9th district = remaining Eastside suburbs + "inner" South King County (includes Des Moines, all of Renton, and part of Kent)

8th district = Federal Way, Auburn, the rest of Kent, Puyallup, and the remaining outlying parts of King and Pierce Counties

Tacoma proper looks like it's split between 6 (Olympic Peninsula) and 10 (Thurston + Lewis)

[Kamala's side hoe]

Here's a nice Washington map--not exactly sure about the Tacoma area but I think everything else works well.





The Tacoma area is a little tricky to justify, but IMO it's just as much of a boondoggle as putting Tacoma's eastern suburbs into the 9th.

Lumping in Tacoma proper with South King County is justifiable on socioeconomic grounds IMO

[Kamala's side hoe]

Is there a DRA map?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cc4e7f00-13c1-4bd7-ac7a-1019ad86d176

Yuck, the 8th voted for Loren Culp. Probably +1 for the GOP in 2022.

I still don’t understand why there were a lot of Asian Biden-Culpvoters (as pre-election poll crosstabs seemed to suggest), despite my sympathy to the idea of anti-establishment protest votes in Ultra Safe D states. Not that there would have been very many of them in the new 8th district, even if it includes more of Issaquah and Sammamish than I’m thinking.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Is there a DRA map?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cc4e7f00-13c1-4bd7-ac7a-1019ad86d176

Yuck, the 8th voted for Loren Culp. Probably +1 for the GOP in 2022.

I still don’t understand why there were a lot of Asian Biden-Culp voters (as pre-election poll crosstabs seemed to suggest), despite my sympathy to the idea of anti-establishment protest votes in Ultra Safe D states. Not that there would have been very many of them in the new 8th district, even if it includes more of Issaquah and Sammamish than I’m thinking.

I don't know about Asian voters specifically, but it's pretty clear that Culp was both a lot more popular in Washington than Trump has ever been and that Inslee was a lot more hated by Republicans than Biden has ever been. If they were already moderate Republicans, it's not hard to see why they would find Trump unacceptable but also hate Inslee enough to vote for Culp.

Personally, I'm not too worried about WA-8. Those suburbs are rocketing leftward and there's not a ton of room for Republican growth, even if depressed turnout among traditional Democratic groups is factored in. It's still close enough that Republicans might be able to pull off a win in 2022, but it'd very likely be the last time they manage it unless the national realignment either changes or reverses suddenly.

Yeah now that I've had a chance to check out the DRA link, I can clearly see that WA-8 will contain all of Sammamish and Issaquah, as well as parts of Kent and Auburn (and also all of Mt Rainier National Park in Pierce County, it looks like)

[Kamala's side hoe]

Is this better or worse than the map that WA got in 2022?
https://davesredistricting.org/join/5a380eb4-b852-4a73-9439-e08ae198a671

The WA-08 equivalent looks like it might be a little more D than in OTL. Pity Seattle can't have a CD all to itself.