2020 Oregon Redistricting

[Kamala's side hoe]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7ef4d47b-a4f6-4627-a0f9-71cb5aebbd82, so is this better? This is 5-0-1 with just one split, I think

Wow, that's one helluva gerrymander. All 6 congressional districts reach into Portland proper.

[Kamala's side hoe]

On that note, I'm going to float this 5-1 map.


Link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/0c03f33d-33fc-4f36-8089-55830e9ac0b9

Partisanship
1st: Clinton +20.9, D+8 (1 point right of current iteration)
2nd: Trump +26.4, R+15 (6 points right of current iteration)
3rd: Clinton +24.2, D+13 (22 points right of current iteration)
4th: Clinton +14, D+7 (14 points left of current iteration)
5th: Clinton +21.2, D+9 (17 points left of current iteration)
6th: Clinton +12, D+6 (1 point left of state)

This is a very secure 5-1 map that utilizes the coastal district concept - personally, I've found that without a coastal district that's shored up with Portland, a 5-1 is basically impossible (as DeFazio's 4th is forced to pick up much of conservative Southern Oregon, capping it out at Clinton +2-3 max). DeFazio's district, which picks up swingy Polk County and Salem while losing most of its Southern Oregon part, moves significantly to the left, and is likely safe for the decade. Likewise, Schrader's district moves into Portland and becomes Titanium D. The new seat includes the Oregon Coast, the Medford-Grants Pass-Ashland triad, and West Portland (plus St. Johns), and has a partisan makeup roughly equal to that of the state. The new seat is also the most vulnerable, but is extremely unlikely to flip. Meanwhile, Blumenauer's district gets expanded significantly but remains Safe, while Bonamici's district sheds its part of Portland and the Columbia River region, while Rep. Elect Bentz's seat is pushed into uber-red Douglas County.

The map is road-contiguous, and is reasonably compact (even accounting for the coast district). The only bad splits are the three-way cuts of Douglas County, Marion County, and Portland - though all are done pretty neatly with city lines mostly intact, and in Portland's case, along logical lines.

Edit: It's of note that the Douglas County split can be eliminated by 1) having the 2nd bite into Josephine instead or 2) giving the 2nd the 4th's share of Douglas while moving the 6th further into Jackson. Both have the side affect of making the 6th more vulnerable (option 2 far more than option 1), however.

Freedom gerrymander. Your Portland proper split looks much cleaner than the maps on page 5 trying to lump all of us Washington County OR avatars in with Downtown Portland.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Who said Wenatchee had to go with suburban Seattle?

It shouldn't! But I just use it as an example of how cross-mountain connections can be made without causing a ruckus. I have never heard anyone actually complain about the shape of the 8th district the past ten years, so I don't see why Democrats in Oregon can't go ahead and do cross-mountain districts if they wanted to.

I think it's more justifiable for Washington because Washington has a more balanced population distribution on both sides of the Cascades.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Here is a good way to draw OR-02 if you are looking for what is best for the Dems. Rest of state is Clinton + 20.7.

Is there a road connection between Bend and the rest of the state? (that doesn't pass through your OR-02)

Nope. There are no highway connections between Eugene and Bend that stay entirely within Lane and Deschutes Counties.

[Kamala's side hoe]

On a related note, I think OR-242 connects Lane directly to Deschutes via road, though as it's a seasonal road IDK the legality of that under OR law.

I thought so too, but Google Maps says it passes through Linn County for half a mile in between those two counties.

I wonder what the district(s) containing Bend and Pendleton in Blairite's map would look like. 

[Kamala's side hoe]

Thoughts on this map?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d88243e2-a758-4030-8e26-27e40d1144f6

No complaints on my end... won't happen though.

It balances out because my map of Georgia is an unintentional light D mander.

Interesting concept (and obviously bad for Democrats lol). The primary issue with this map, partisan concerns aside, are the county splits - Washington County should be kept near-whole, and the Salem area is a little scuffed. The Willamette split in Portland is pretty justifiable, but you should probably be consistent about it. Also not a fan of putting Hillsboro in with the western district - it's a better fit with the remainder of the West Portland burbs. 

Agreed, this is a blatant R gerrymander. There's no good reason to cut off Downtown Hillsboro from the rest of urbanized Washington County and lump it in with Corvallis. Same goes for lumping Eugene and most of the Clackamas County PDX suburbs into a Likely R district west of the Cascades.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Just Made a Oregon map with the new district
https://davesredistricting.org/join/bf9fb9b7-15b7-4fc7-8af0-a29a55a6a899
I was focusing on lowering the amount of county splits in the end I only had 3 though it's actually a pretty competitive map 1 Safe R 1 Likely R 2 Safe D 1 Likely D and 1 Tossup District.

1) The Portland split does not follow obvious COI boundaries

2) Idk which bothers me more- Linn County being lumped in with east of the Cascades, or the way Eugene + Eastern Lane County is connected to the Mid-Willamette Valley through a narrow strip

[Kamala's side hoe]

Just Made a Oregon map with the new district
https://davesredistricting.org/join/bf9fb9b7-15b7-4fc7-8af0-a29a55a6a899
I was focusing on lowering the amount of county splits in the end I only had 3 though it's actually a pretty competitive map 1 Safe R 1 Likely R 2 Safe D 1 Likely D and 1 Tossup District.

1) The Portland split does not follow obvious COI boundaries

2) Idk which bothers me more- Linn County being lumped in with east of the Cascades, or the way Eugene + Eastern Lane County is connected to the Mid-Willamette Valley through a narrow strip

Whats COI boundaries?
I mean I admit it's not that pretty of a map lol I was just trying to make one with as few counties splits as possible lol

Not sure- I think it means community of interest?

I don’t blame you for trying- county splits are going to be inevitable. But there should be a better way to lump Eugene together with Corvallis without that gerrymandered look.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Does anyone know if the new map's available to view in DRA anywhere?

Here. I wish DRA had 2020 data for Oregon.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/6aac3f95-4660-4fbf-b7e0-3dee7aa517d5

I would've preferred keeping all of urbanized Washington County within District #1, and all of Portland proper east of the Willamette River within District #3. But gerrymandering concerns aside, idk if that would work given population shifts within Metro PDX. I didn't notice this at first, but the southernmost parts of Portland proper next to Lake Oswego and Milwaukie are part of District #5.

[Kamala's side hoe]

DRA has added 2020 Presidential data so here is how all the districts voted on the new map.



OR-01: Biden 67.8, Trump 28.9 (D+38.9) (+10 more D from 2016)
OR-02: Trump 60.7, Biden 36.4 (R+24.3) (+10.8 more R from 2016)
OR-03: Biden 72.0, Trump 25.0 (D+47.0) (+3.6 more R from 2016)
OR-04: Biden 54.7, Trump 42.0 (D+12.7) (+8.8 more D from 2016)
OR-05: Biden 52.8, Trump 44.0 (D+8.8) (+0.8 more R from 2016)
OR-06: Biden 54.8, Trump 41.7 (D+13.1)

It’d be nice to see what the 2016 results looked like on the upcoming 2022 district map. I highly doubt either the current or the upcoming OR-1 swung that much from HRC to Biden.