NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Kamala's side hoe]

Two biggest issues imo were Democratic complacency (anecdotal, but I know a lot of people who didn’t vote because they thought Hochul was going to win) and crime. Not really sure what you do about the latter. I suppose NY Dems can be more like Eric Adams and make it your entire thing, but then you run into the problem where you’ve created a monster that’s impossible to slay. I find it really amusing as a hater, but murders and shootings are down in the city since his election and he’s reaped no political benefit from it.

Always a good thing to hear, but what about other types of crime? My hot take is Cuomogate was the biggest factor

[Kamala's side hoe]

They already have the few Staten Island and South Brooklyn seats, their next targets should be Asian areas such as Flushing where Zeldin came in striking distance.

In addition to their current seats, some of their best targets imo are:

District 30, Biden + 14, based around Middle Village which is basically like "white flight" within the city itself. It's a realtively transit desert, pretty white, and notably less dense than the surrounding areas. Zeldin def won this district.

District 43, Biden + 12, heavily Asian district, usually very low turnout, and def voted for Zeldin in 2022. These are some of the more culturally conservative Asian communities in Bensonhurst.

District 44, Trump + 64, basically represented by a conservaDem rn with ties to the Orthodox Jewish community.

Honestly though, outside of these, any other possibilities require some huge re-alignment. I think the Asian seats out in Queens could be possible down the road if they put in the work to actually appeal to these communities.

Yeah Zeldin probably won the Brooklyn Chinese clusters- I'm guessing the bluest parts of the Brooklyn sea of pink (west of the presumably Orthodox Jewish/ex-Soviet/white ethnic tongue of crimson?) correspond to Sunset Park and Bensonhurst? Not nearly familiar enough with Queens to make any comments on the Chinese or South Asian clusters there.

Map link

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1600245507212730369

[Kamala's side hoe]

Another thing that always confuses me is my own personal experience; I go to a high performing public NYC high school that has a large number of immigrants from South Brooklyn communities and Asians from Queens and South Brooklyn that you actually have quite a notable conservative population within the student body, even if liberals tend to dominate. My school is exactly the type of "feeder" school for these top colleges, and a lot of the top students are students from these conservative leaning immigrant families. Idk but the lopsidedness of college campuses always surprises me.

I can't speak for your birth cohort or the public K-12 students of NYC proper, but the shifting politlcal coalitions in the US and in other mature liberal democracies reflect a realignment away from the "liberal" vs "conservative" alignment of yesteryear.  The issues the families of K-12 kids are more conservative on aren't always correlated with which ones are most important to how they vote.

This tweet describes what I've seen with Asians online and in real life, but I'd say it goes beyond socialization into the college+ population. (It's also true for African immigrant communities but I don't think people care as much since people generally don't think of African adult immigrants as a comparatively R group)

https://twitter.com/HamrickPaul/status/1468715815587438594
Also I wouldn't say precinct results on college campuses are totally representative of the general student body given how many college kids register as absentee voters.