Will Asians (as well as half-asians) stay in the Democratic Party?

[Kamala's side hoe]

I alluded to this question in a NationStates forum discussion once.

I think Asians and urban/liberal mixed-Asians will remain Democratic-leaning overall but think there will be sharper divides along class lines and between foreign-born vs native-born. I can see more recently immigrated, relatively affluent Chinese and Indians swinging GOP on affirmative action like in 2016 but don't know what effect that will have on the overall Asian-American vote or if that can become a long-term trend.

[Kamala's side hoe]

An obvious statement, but one that hasn't been discussed much here: Asian Americans are not monolithic. If anything, they're the most diverse racial group in the US. Besides cultural differences, there are salient economic differences too:





So in the event of a GOP realignment, richer Asian groups like Indians would trend GOP, but poorer ones like the Hmong will likely stay with the Dems.

This statistic hides educational attainment, socioeconomic, and resultant residential divides within the Chinese American community. No other Asian American subgroup has experienced so many distinct waves of immigration from multiple jurisdictions and class levels.

Drawing from my own anecdotal evidence from my family, many first-gen Asian immigrants don't emphasize social issues. They come here to get a better life, i.e. get rich, which is why many (like my own dad) like the GOP's economic policies and overlook (or even support) their social policies. After all, many have come from socially conservative backgrounds; many grew up as part of the ethnic majorities (or for Indians, privileged castes).

This is precisely why Trump did better among immigrants than among native-born Asian Americans.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I think the really crucial question is whether the Asian voters will go the way of the white ethnic blocs or whether they will remain distinct from whites.

From 2016 to 2020, Asians trended in the same direction as Blacks and Latinos, but the opposite direction as college-educated Whites and White Catholics. This and the CA-GOV recall results should answer your question.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I would be interested in seeing more granular data about Asian voter preferences across ethnic lines - as well as by class and location. Judging by precinct data, it seems like inner-city, working class Chinese and Indian neighborhoods had marked shifts toward the GOP in 2020. It's harder to say if the same held true in suburban areas, since Asians tend to be less concentrated (living in neighborhoods that are majority white or in some cases with a larger non-white population like Latinos), so the swings in those areas could be attributed to these other racial groups. I would also assume that some ethnic groups, specifically Vietnamese-Americans, had large shifts regardless of where they lived.

Which neighborhoods/metro areas are you referring to? I noticed that Asian areas generally had smaller R swings in 2020 than Latino areas (San Francisco proper might be an exception). Per the NYT precinct map, there were some heavily Asian suburban areas (at least in the Portland area) where Trump's percentage went down from 2016, and the areas with a Vietnamese presence didn't really swing R even if Trump's percentage went up because Biden also gained from HRC. I also remember there wasn't much of a R swing anywhere in Oakland or Long Beach.

2016-2020 swings don't tell us very much about long-term trends. I certainly don't think Asians will ever be as one-sidedly D as blacks have been post-1980, but I can't see AAPI voting patterns converging with any segment of the white vote either. Half-Asians like Bagel23, Forumlurker161, and West_Midlander may be a different story.