Post-Realignment Electoral Map?

[Kamala's side hoe]

As I've alluded to a couple other places, such as here; and here; I think as of now, there are two outcomes that are more likely than the rest.  With the caveat, of course, that "more likely," does not, and should not be conflated with, "probable."  Not to go all chaos theory on everyone here, but small events in the present could have substantial, unforeseen consequences in the future that will not be fully appreciated until decades from now.  Not to speak of massive, catastrophic events, with presumably even larger consequences.  So accepting that this exercise is mostly baseless speculation, my two scenarios are as follows:

1.  TT's generational theory is correct and a realignment occurs with a catalyst being a major economic crisis that unravels the Reagan neo-liberal economic order and results in a system with low polarization and differences between the parties being mostly economic in nature.  Whites are mostly GOP, minorities D, but both parties make significant in-roads with all racial/ethnic demographics.  In this system, I think there would be a significant number of swing states, landslides would be relatively common and both parties would be competitive in nearly every state.  NY, TX, and FL are the hardest fought states.  PA and IL are close too, but are losing EVs with each passing census.  Toss-ups are indicated; and about 6-10 more states would be swing states.

2.  TT's generational theory may be correct, and an economic crisis may occur, but even so, all of this is overshadowed by increased and extremely intense polarization rooted in racial stratification of the parties, leading to a South Africa type system.  The GOP is essentially the White party, the Dems are the "others."  Neither party platform is significantly different on economic issues, and all debates eventually lead back to identity politics.  After a few decades the country is at serious risk of Balkanizing and racial/ethnic strife and violence are relatively common.  Elections are almost entirely just a turnout battle in the 4 toss-ups between whites and minorities.  There are no swing states except the lighter shaded ones in 50-50 years.

PV percentages are not literal... lighter shading just indicates closer states.

More or less the difference between Michael Lund's 2014 and 2016 realignment predictions

[Kamala's side hoe]

If the Democrats continue to become the populist-left and the GOP is forced to move to the center as a result

This will probably come in the 2040s

Why would Tennessee not lean Democratic like its neighbors? Is it just to keep the electoral college evenly split?