the black vote in 2030

[Kamala's side hoe]

The GOP is tripling down on blatant racism.  Why would they improve with the black vote any time soon?  people don't have that short a memory.

1) Not all black voters are ADOS, and non-ADOS black folks were never as Titanium D as ADOS folks even though they're still very D. (This is partly why I'm skeptical of reagente's 2020 estimates for black voters).

2) The GOP's racism isn't solely directed at black people.


My guess is anywhere from 88-12 to 80-20. Depends on how much ADOS voters trend R by, and whether the increasing immigrant Black population changes things.

[Kamala's side hoe]

My guess is that the emerging Black middle class will trend GOP.  There is a growing cultural gap, and I get a large number of "You live where," comments from Black suburbanites.

"Urban" may mean, "relating to the city" in 25 years.

Black voters (and minorities in general), have helped the suburbs trend D though. The combination of white college+ trending D as well as minorities moving to to the suburbs and making them more diverse (i.e. Georgia) is what is causing the shift towards D, so not sure what evidence there is that the black middle class would trend GOP?

It’s entirely possible for nonwhites to trend R even as they help shift the suburbs D. They just have to keep voting more D than their white counterparts- even the college+ ones.

I’m somewhat bullish about R gains with black voters, because I’m relatively optimistic about our ability to solve issues of racial justice and equity with regard to the ADOS community, but pessimistic about increasing polarization along gender and educational attainment. You can’t have gentrifiers and gentrified on the same side forever.