Is Mississippi the Most Inelastic state and what direction is MS moving towards?

[Technocracy Timmy]

For MS not to trend Democratic, you are betting on the longevity of seniors in one of the most unhealthy states in the union (obesity, smoking etc) or Millennials being the just as Republican as their parents to the tune where they won't even drop 10% in Republican voting.

This is great analysis although it brings up the question of if the black vote can also become slightly depolarized in 10-20 years in Mississippi. This seems crazy today but so did the notion that Trump would match/slightly exceed Romney’s performance with Latinos in early-mid 2016. 

A slightly more friendlier face GOP that still has a staunch center-right position on immigration, pro fair trade, and pro manufacturing could end up doing 5-10 points better with the black vote in Mississippi down the line. This is a state with a lot of black manufacturing workers after all. We do know young black men are already less democratic than their elder counterparts.

[Technocracy Timmy]

For MS not to trend Democratic, you are betting on the longevity of seniors in one of the most unhealthy states in the union (obesity, smoking etc) or Millennials being the just as Republican as their parents to the tune where they won't even drop 10% in Republican voting.

This is great analysis although it brings up the question of if the black vote can also become slightly depolarized in 10-20 years in Mississippi. This seems crazy today but so did the notion that Trump would match/slightly exceed Romney’s performance with Latinos in early-mid 2016. 

A slightly more friendlier face GOP that still has a staunch center-right position on immigration, pro fair trade, and pro manufacturing could end up doing 5-10 points better with the black vote in Mississippi down the line. This is a state with a lot of black manufacturing workers after all. We do know young black men are already less democratic than their elder counterparts.

All that does is buy them another cycle or two. 5% would reduce the Dem % by 1.5% overall give or take. Could make the difference in a tight race, but it is not going to reverse a trend or replace the losses the GOP is experiencing among their most solid voters from attrition.

True but I’d combine that with the the state also having a notorious brain drain problem. Democrats can’t keep a lot of those left leaning younger voters in MS when they’re leaving the state.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Trending Democrat but only in the sense where I could see it being purple by, say, 2050, and blue by 2070 at this rate. I swear there has to be some kind of instructions Mississippi voters get that makes the state vote always Republican by similar margins. Even with what should be a better Democratic race in their special election it's looking pretty 57-43 for Republicans. They also almost always have the lowest third party % in Presidential races, which suggests that there just aren't many independents there.

Logically what NCYankee has laid out makes sense but it’s hard to reconcile the idea that MS will become a tossup given its brain drain problem and it being...Mississippi. I guess we’ll see how the senate race there plays out this year.