I completely agree with the concept that many of these voters went for George W. in '00/04.
How does this work when Kerry and Gore both won WI/MI/PA? Trump outperformed Bush by several points across the Midwest.
Bush came within a percentage point of flipping Wisconsin both times, came within 4 points of flipping Michigan in 2004 (5.2 points in 2000), and came within 2.5 points of flipping Pennsylvania in 2004 (4.2 points in 2000).
Now compare Obama's margins in these states in 08' and 12' and it's clear that there's a sizeable contingency of Bush-Obama-Trump voters in them.
Trump's path in PA/MI/WI was different than Bush's in 04 no?
Bush did well in the Milwuakee and Philly suburbs while Trump ran up the score in the rural areas/Erie/Scranton/etc. etc.
Not really that different. And that's assuming people stayed exactly in one location in the state from 2000-2016.
