How much time does the GOP have left (demographically)?

[Technocracy Timmy]

Economics is what will do the GOP in if they don't adapt; though demographic and generational change both play an auxiliary role in this situation.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Economics is what will do the GOP in if they don't adapt; though demographic and generational change both play an auxiliary role in this situation.

You don't think the GOP brand is already tarred as the party of "Rich and White"? Even if they turn to economics, I feel that stigma will (hopefully) kill them among younger people in years to come.

Well their white working class base in the Deep South, Appalachia, and the Midwest certainly don't see their own Party as that of a bunch of rich white people, and those who do see the Party that way don't care because they're Reaganites who genuinely believe in a lot of Reagan's economic agenda (minus entitlement reform and now free trade).

I don't suspect that shifting to the left on economics will be what saves them; they'll stay on course where they are. I was implying that economic conditions won't be cured by their supply side economic theory the same way New Deal full employment policies couldn't solve stagflation.

[Technocracy Timmy]

^ I believe that the assimilated members of the Asian community are usually millennials and they vote more Democratic than their parents and grandparents. I think Asians and Hispanics likely vote more Democratic in part because they're over represented among millennials compared to whites. Median age for each group in the United States: Asian (36), Hispanic (28), and White (42). Pew 2013 numbers.

[Technocracy Timmy]

hence why I think it is unlikely that either the GOP or Democratic party is going to cease to exist as a viable political force anytime soon.

I don't think it is so much as cease to be rather than taking a backseat for a couple decades (-/+), and then throw in another couple decades (-/+) where they slowly make a comeback, though still remain a distinct minority party. It's happened a number of times before. One party rises as the other falls, and the dominant party slowly stops being effective at solving the country's problems because they refuse to change with the times, and this creates an opening that slowly erodes their standing until a power switch occurs.

At least, that is a very abstract description of how I see American politics.

The recent ideological alignment might be an exception to this. The GOP in 1980 formed an ideological alliance with the southern Democrats to get most of Reagan's agenda through. It's also fitting that the man to finish the House Ronnie built in many respects was a southern Democrat (Clinton). In fact 1968-2008 has seen the White House occcupied solely by either Republicans or southern Democrats. That's what has made Obama such an aberration in this era and why I think he's a foreshadowing figure.

[Technocracy Timmy]

hence why I think it is unlikely that either the GOP or Democratic party is going to cease to exist as a viable political force anytime soon.

I don't think it is so much as cease to be rather than taking a backseat for a couple decades (-/+), and then throw in another couple decades (-/+) where they slowly make a comeback, though still remain a distinct minority party. It's happened a number of times before. One party rises as the other falls, and the dominant party slowly stops being effective at solving the country's problems because they refuse to change with the times, and this creates an opening that slowly erodes their standing until a power switch occurs.

At least, that is a very abstract description of how I see American politics.

We are due for a period of dominance by one party anway. It's weird that we've been closely divided for the past 30 years as it is.

That's because folks like Tip O'Neill and Bill Clinton were damn geniuses at triangulation, co-opting popular GOP ideas, and centering the Party in the 90's.

[Technocracy Timmy]

There's a lot of hooplah over the fact that the GOP have lost the popular vote in the last 6/7 presidential elections but this is overlooking something that I think is even more important.

In American history there have been only 3 (if you include Thomas Jefferson as a Democrat, then 4) Democratic presidents who have won consecutive popular vote majorities. Andrew Jackson in 1828 and 1832, Franklin Roosevelt in 1932 and 1936 (along with 40' and 44'), and Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. Bill Clinton did not win a popular vote majority either time. Carter was a one term President. LBJ was too unpopular to run for reelection in 68'. John Kennedy garnered 49.7% in 1960. Truman was a one termer and received 49.6% in 1948. Barack Obama achieved a majority twice (53% in 2008 and 51% in 2012). That's important to bear in mind.

The Obama coalition is largely growing when it comes to Hispanics, millennials, single women, etc. The coalition faltered in the Midwest since about 6.7-9.2 million Obama 2012 voters broke for Trump nationally but were concentrated in large part in this region of the country. They still only garnered Trump a paltry 46% of the electorate. This coalition didn't show up in 2010 and 2014 and we'll see where they're at in 2018, but rest assured that many will show up in 2020 if the Democratic nominee is inspiring and has a progressive agenda. The GOP has to make at least some inroads with minorities and younger voters to hold onto the White House in 2020. The other crucial component here is if anti-Trump educated Republicans come home in 2020 particularly if Pence is on the top of the ticket. All of these factors have the potential to make or break elections in crucial swing states.

This should be a warning sign (along with the popular vote tallies of the last 6/7 elections) that the GOP needs to take seriously moving forward. Maybe Obama was just aberration, maybe not. I don't think he was when you look at the candidacy of Bernie Sanders or you take into account how much of a populist campaign Trump ran in 2016; bucking GOP orthodoxy constantly and reaping the rewards of it in one of the most competitive Republican primaries in history.