Post-Realignment Electoral Map?

[Technocracy Timmy]

The younger half of generation x is somewhat Democratic. Not the same as Millennials, but is definitely worth keeping a note of. I'd say voters between people ages 35 - 44 account for the more Dem-leaning portion of gen x.

Also it would help to know how you envision groups by educational attainment voting.

I think the next Democratic realignment will pursue policies that disproportionately benefit millennials and Gen Zers so I could definitely see the younger half of Gen X trending Republican.

Note: the first minority coalition President always does better among older voters. Eisenhower did great with the older Lost generation and Clinton did great with the older GI generation. The first GOP president in this alignment (which I think will be a Democratic one) will make inroads with the older Xers circa 2036-2044.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I think history suggests that the next alignment will look something like this:

GOP: "White" Hispanics, upscale minorities (winning about 51-59% of the Asian vote), wealthier voters, Gen Xers and whoever is left of the boomer generation.

Democrats: Hispanics who don't identify as white, millennials, Gen Zers, African Americans, and a slight majority of poor whites.

Two questions marks I constantly contemplate about this alignment: to what extent the Dixie south shifts, and whether the first GOP president wins New York or Texas in their victory. These two questions will determine the geographic underpinning to where the GOP will set up shop moving forward.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I think history suggests that the next alignment will look something like this:

GOP: "White" Hispanics, upscale minorities (winning about 51-59% of the Asian vote), wealthier voters, Gen Xers and whoever is left of the boomer generation.

Democrats: Hispanics who don't identify as white, millennials, Gen Zers, African Americans, and a slight majority of poor whites.

Two questions marks I constantly contemplate about this alignment: to what extent the Dixie south shifts, and whether the first GOP president wins New York or Texas in their victory. These two questions will determine the geographic underpinning to where the GOP will set up shop moving forward.

I would say Texas is definitely more likely as even on economic issues it's clearly more conservative. New York as been a solid dem state on the national level since 1932(except in major landslides , and when a popular New York governor was on top of the GOP ticket ) and i don't think it will change for another 50 years at least .

Good chance the first GOP President is from NYC, Philly, or NJ. Romney and Trump are both urban northeasterners and the Northeast has been trending GOP on the whole from 2000-2016 (excluding MA and possibly VT).

Texas comes down to if younger Hispanics continue voting Democrat, if Hispanics in the state reach economic parity with whites, and if Hispanics start self identifying as white in greater numbers. So far I think the trends in Texas indicate a clear shift leftwards moving forward.

Even if the next GOP president loses VT, MA, and NY, they'll make strong enough inroads in the northeastern United States to where they'll likely not need Texas to win the EC.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Give the Republican NJ, CT, DE, and SC. Give the Democrats MS. I'd say that's about right. We'll have to see how FL, TX, and NY trend from now till 2032 to really say. Florida I think will stay a swing state simply because of older boomer and Xer retirees. California stays Dem nomatter what.

I really want to see what happens with New York, Texas, and Illinois moving forward. Those three states interest me the most.

The white vote in Texas is truly maxed out for the GOP and as I've already stated, going into the 2030's and 2040's, the three variables to watch for are:

1. Do younger Hispanics start trending Republican (whereas they've trended Democrat so far)?
2. Do Hispanics start self identifying more and more as "White"?
3. Do Hispanics reach economic parity with Whites?

If the answer to all or most those questions is no, then Texas will drift further and further Democrat.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I think the GOP would be idiotic to not change its path. The ethnic/generational divides that the OP mentioned are pretty close to now.

But yes a realignment like this would happen if the GOP continues like this, but I'm not entirely convinced that asians will be a Republican-aligned group.

Also, I have talked about this before, but what are the chances of a Bernie-dominated Democratic Party making current Republican strongholds in the West (MT, ID, etc.) more competitive and more moderate Republicans gaining in the North with fewer losses in the growing minority states due to the leftward move of the Democrats?

Asians broke for the GOP 50-48 in the 2014 midterms. Now while that was a midterm year and very low turnout, it does show that the GOP have a pretty high base with Asian voters even with their current southern evangelical strategy. George W. Bush won 44% of Asian voters in 2004.

If they shift away from the southern strategy and fully embrace the stance that climate change is real and needs to be curbed then they could easily start winning 50%+ of Asian voters in Presidential years circa 2036-2044.

[Technocracy Timmy]

^ Recent minorities group tend to follow that pattern. They'll continue to suburbanize from now till the 2030's and onward.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Montana is probably the only Interior Plains state that has a populist tradition; the rest of the region (Dakotas, Idaho, Kansas, Utah, etc.) haven't had this tradition unless you're talking WJB going back over 100 years. Since 1964, they've all voted for the GOP consistently (minus MT). And Hispanic growth isn't concentrated in any of those states.

A Bernie style economically populist Democratic Party vs a more moderate technocratic GOP would see most of the Interior Plains (with the possible exception of MT) remain reliably Republican in such a scenario.

The biggest swings from the current map that this new alignment would create would be seen in the Northeast and Appalachia.