To you and all the others who think Maine is less likely to vote R than IL/NM/etc.: Is there an obvious Democratic frontrunner who will make the race Likely D? Because if not, I don't see how Maine will be more difficult to hold than IL, NM, etc.
A few things to note:
Maine hasn't elected back to back governors from the same party since the 50s. I don't see that changing now given Trump & Lepage's subpar approval ratings and Maine's desire to not be in the news every month for something stupid our governor says.
The strongest Democratic candidate would be Troy Jackson, a 48 year old Bernie superdelegate in a state that loves Bernie. He's a logger who can speak to blue collar workers and represents a portion of more conservative northern Maine in the state senate. I don't see Maine Democrats making the same mistake they have been making in Senate/Gubernatorial races in having establishment, uninspiring candidates in the general. And even if the Dem candidate isn't great, there will most likely be an independent waiting in the wings.
Another question to ponder is who the Republicans could nominate. Mayhew is too easily tied to Lepage. Poliquin has lost statewide races twice and his vote for the AHCA will make him DOA. If a respected moderate like Collins or Snowe isn't running, I can't see a Republican who can separate themselves from Trump & Lepage.
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