What factors cause an area to trend Democratic

[cvparty]

most of the change is due to existing highly educated populations swinging dem. many fast-growing places are destinations for people with high educational attainment bc those people have more mobility than the uneducated, but not all highly educated places are fast-growing

so there are 4 general types of areas
1) slow-growth, uneducated - trend R
- ex: rurals, basically
2) slow-growth, educated - trend D, but could trend R in the future due to brain drain/decline
- ex: suburbs in NJ (morris, somerset, hunterdon), suburbs in IL (lake, dupage)
3) fast-growing, educated - trend D
- ex: urban centers/suburbs like travis co (TX), forsyth co (GA), wake co (NC), williamson co (TN)
4) fast-growing, uneducated - may trend R short-term due to the existing population, but may trend D in the long run due to educated in-migrants
- ex: exurban areas like johnston co (NC), lancaster co (SC), hall co (GA), ellis co (TX)

[cvparty]

For some reason, "transplants" are now associated with trending Democratic (in the 70s and 80s they were associated with a shift to the GOP). Though I think "transplants = inevitable shift toward liberalism" talk occurred around 2008 or so.

it’s bc people with high educational attainment (who tend to be/are trending dem) have more freedom to migrate