Skew in state delegations

[cvparty]

A fair map in TN is 6R-3D.

in theory.

[cvparty]

A fair map in TN is 6R-3D.

Actually not. TN is R+14, or in a 50-50 national race the state should split 64% R to 36% D. Studies have shown that for every point that a state swings from 50% the delegation swings by 2%, so that in a 50-50 national race the TN delegation would be expected to be 78% to 22%. With 9 seats that corresponds almost exactly to a 7R - 2D delegation.

I've seen you say this a lot, can you link me to some of these studies

[cvparty]

A fair map in TN is 6R-3D.

Actually not. TN is R+14, or in a 50-50 national race the state should split 64% R to 36% D. Studies have shown that for every point that a state swings from 50% the delegation swings by 2%, so that in a 50-50 national race the TN delegation would be expected to be 78% to 22%. With 9 seats that corresponds almost exactly to a 7R - 2D delegation.

I generally use a more different calculation.
I would rather take the 64-34 calculation and don't take the step of adjusting for partisan lean like that. If one is making a fair map, it's better to hew to trying to match the partisan lean as much as is rationally possible. It's possible to do that in TN. Unpack TN-09 while keeping it wholely within Shelby County, make TN-08 a roughly 52% Obama district in the R+4 range (an Obama district in the South generally should be counted as a Democratic district regardless of PVI, especially if it's around 35% black), and then have a Nashville seat. And then boom, success.

TN-08's eastern border can be Weakley, Carroll, Madison, and Hardeman Counties. One can also construct a TN-04 that is -3522, solely out of whole counties.

The single-member district system results in an amplified partisan lean within an area (relative to the percent vote). Trying to match the delegation to the percentage vote often results in gross gerrymandering, so I wouldn't do that...besides, even if each state has an amplified partisan lean, they should cancel each other out in the end

[cvparty]

A fair map in TN is 6R-3D.

Actually not. TN is R+14, or in a 50-50 national race the state should split 64% R to 36% D. Studies have shown that for every point that a state swings from 50% the delegation swings by 2%, so that in a 50-50 national race the TN delegation would be expected to be 78% to 22%. With 9 seats that corresponds almost exactly to a 7R - 2D delegation.

I generally use a more different calculation.
I would rather take the 64-34 calculation and don't take the step of adjusting for partisan lean like that. If one is making a fair map, it's better to hew to trying to match the partisan lean as much as is rationally possible. It's possible to do that in TN. Unpack TN-09 while keeping it wholely within Shelby County, make TN-08 a roughly 52% Obama district in the R+4 range (an Obama district in the South generally should be counted as a Democratic district regardless of PVI, especially if it's around 35% black), and then have a Nashville seat. And then boom, success.

TN-08's eastern border can be Weakley, Carroll, Madison, and Hardeman Counties. One can also construct a TN-04 that is -3522, solely out of whole counties.

The single-member district system results in an amplified partisan lean within an area (relative to the percent vote). Trying to match the delegation to the percentage vote often results in gross gerrymandering, so I wouldn't do that...besides, even if each state has an amplified partisan lean, they should cancel each other out in the end

It wouldn't be rational everywhere. But it should be tried where it doesn't necessarily result in overly messed up districts.
If some gerrymandering happens in the process of getting proportionality, it's fine by me...but counties and cities generally should be kept together when possible regardless.
I'm not in the opinion that gerrymandering itself is inherently evil.

You have to go into the core of Memphis to make the 8th competitive. It just wouldn't make sense in relation to the rest of the district.