Fair redistricting: New York

[cvparty]

um, so TimTurner ignored me, technically he would have no vote...in that case cvparty's RI map would win
but I did remember he ranked some of the maps before prematurely in the thread. luckily none of the finalist maps were missing. if you use that as his vote then cvparty, Tim-A and muon2-A tie. using inequality, cvparty's has the lowest average deviation (26.5) and would win.

I've made the spreadsheet as well, although I've only gotten to a few states so far sorry

You really need an odd number of panelists. For RI, 9 of 21 pairwise comparisons were tied. How were the finalists determined?

ya it's not final

[cvparty]

SO...it's pretty evident that 4 panelists is not enough. We'll keep moving and the winners for past states will be announced as soon as a 5th vote comes in. Time for Massachusetts peeps!

[cvparty]

8th is maj-min

1: D+18
2: R+1
3: D+14
4: D+0
5: D+27
6: D+6
7: D+13
8: D+24
9: D+7

[cvparty]

Hey everyone, just a reminder that New Jersey has a total of 9 million people in only 21 counties. Beware of being fanatical about *muh county lines*...

[cvparty]

Evesham does not belong with Toms River...

[cvparty]

1: D+12
2: D+1
3: D+13
4: R+14
5: R+4
6: R+2
7: D+14
8: D+25
9: D+16
10: D+30
11: R+10
12: D+13

[cvparty]

Similar to NJ, most of Maryland's 6,000,000 people are concentrated in like 6 counties, a small number. Don't go crazy over the county lines please. Also, the presence of Chesapeake Bay creates an interesting dynamic. The Anne Arundel districts should be fun to see...

[cvparty]

• I tried to keep metro areas together
• Southeast Baltimore Co. and Anne Arundel are similar demographically and geographically which is why I put them together. This arrangement puts Howard with Baltimore County which makes a lot of sense. (The 3rd is contiguous by I-695)

1: R+12
2: D+14
3: R+1
4: D+36
5: D+19
6: R+11
7: D+33
8: D+24

[cvparty]

https://ibb.co/m17vFS

1(blue)-R+12.38
2(green)-R+11.71
3(purple)-D+37.49
4(orange-red)-D+6.75
5(yellow)-D+21.22
6(sea green)-D+4.25
7(grey)-D+35.31
8(light purple)-D+23.5

does a link to the photo count? I don't know how to use the gallery...

yes but it's a little inconvenient to open compared to directly embedding the image. upload the photo here, then go to the new page for your image and there'll be a link to embed it in your post

[cvparty]

a summary of all Maryland entries

1. R+7 (connected via bridge. I wanted to make a Chesapeake-centric district. Calvert and St Marys have more in common with the Eastern Shore than they do Charles/PG)
2. R+8
3. D+32 (52% Black, 38% White)
4. D+32 (38% White, 27% Black, 24% Hispanic)
5. D+35 (69% Black)
6. R+12
7. D+11
8. D+18

https://ibb.co/m17vFS

1(blue)-R+12.38
2(green)-R+11.71
3(purple)-D+37.49
4(orange-red)-D+6.75
5(yellow)-D+21.22
6(sea green)-D+4.25
7(grey)-D+35.31
8(light purple)-D+23.5

• I tried to keep metro areas together
• Southeast Baltimore Co. and Anne Arundel are similar demographically and geographically which is why I put them together. This arrangement puts Howard with Baltimore County which makes a lot of sense. (The 3rd is contiguous by I-695)

1: R+12
2: D+14
3: R+1
4: D+36
5: D+19
6: R+11
7: D+33
8: D+24

01: D+08.71
02: D+10.25
03: D+13.93
04: D+08.15
05: D+11.40
06: D+17.13
07: D+07.87
08: D+19.82

plan A


CD 1: (-2725); PVI R+12
CD 2: (-3185); PVI D+10
CD 3: (+241); PVI D+4.9
CD 4: (+3514); PVI D+35; BVAP 41.1%, HVAP 19.6%, WVAP 29.3%
CD 5: (+3018); PVI D+23; BVAP 54.9%, WVAP 36.5%
CD 6: (-3546); PVI R+12
CD 7: (+2073); PVI D+32; BVAP 54.3%, WVAP 36.8%
CD 8: (+610); PVI D+22

plan B


CD 1: (-1493); PVI R+10
CD 2: (-1712); PVI D+4.4
CD 3: (+241); PVI D+4.9
CD 4: (+902); PVI D+39; BVAP 60.6%, HVAP 15.1%, WVAP 17.8%
CD 5: (+1656); PVI D+6.5; BVAP 32.9%
CD 6: (-665); PVI D+0.3
CD 7: (+2073); PVI D+32; BVAP 54.3%, WVAP 36.8%
CD 8: (-1002); PVI D+26

MD-1 Eastern Shore-Northeast +0.28%; R+11.80; A 80, B 14, H 3, As 2, O 1.
MD-2 Baltimore County  -0.09%; D+6.06; A 68, B 22, As 5, H 4, O 1.
MD-3 Baltimore City -0.29%; D+34.92; B 58, A 34, H 4, As 3, O 1.
MD-4 Western Shore +0.02%, R+3.32, A 76, B 15, H 5, As 3, O 2.
MD-5 West +0.04%, R+11.41 A85, B 7, H 4, As 4, O 1
MD-6 Montgomery +0.19%, D+22.27, A 56, As 15, H 15, B 11, O 2.
MD-7 Howard, Montgomery, and Prince George's -0.19%, D+24.93, A 37, B 30, H 19, As  10, O 3.
MD-8 Prince George's -0,19%; D 37.41%; B 69, A 18, H 8, As 3, O 2.
Summary
County splits: 7.

There are 4 Democratic districts, 2 Republican, and 2 competitive, one Democratic-leaning, and one Republican leaning.

There are two Black-majority (VAP) districts, and another minority-majority district.

District 1 R+11.75 - 41.4 - 57.0
District 2 D+10.38 - 58.7 - 39.7
District 3 D+04.72 - 53.2 - 45.4
District 4 D+37.85 - 86.3 - 12.9 - 48.8 African American
District 5 D+21.21 - 72.6 - 26.6 - 50.1 African American
District 6 R+11.58 - 41.7 - 56.7
District 7 D+31.07 - 81.3 - 17.6 - 56.4 African American
District 8 D+22.53 - 69.5 - 29.4

image upload api

[cvparty]

okie, you should also probably include PVI data cuz some panelists will outright throw out maps that have none

[cvparty]

Are we supposed to be voting the maps now?

I mean you haven't voted on the last like 8 states but yes I'll send the PM

[cvparty]

Are we supposed to be voting the maps now?

I mean you haven't voted on the last like 8 states but yes I'll send the PM

tbf, in those cases I had internet problems (might be misreading your statement). Mobile data was getting slow and there was lots of images to look at in order to make judgement etc. This made it hard for me to properly do my job as a panelist.
That problem is no longer current.

I'm saying you still haven't ranked a lot of the previous states, so those would probably be the first priority rather than the most recent ones. I mean, time isn't tight, so you don't have to vote right now, but I'd suggest getting to them soon or else they'll stack up and there'll be a massive pile of states to deal with (which might cause one to go through it all hastily and make rushed judgments)

[cvparty]

1: R+12
2: R+1
3: D+13
4: R+3
5: R+6
6: R+14
7: D+11
8: D+22
9: R+20
10: D+10
11: D+8

EASTERN SHORE EXPLANATION
- before the 2000s, the eastern shore was always with the western side of the Chesapeake.
- there's a ferry between Reedsville (Northumberland) and Tangier Island (Accomack)
- Virginia having the eastern shore is a geographical oddity in itself...I didn't want to link it with Virginia Beach/Chesapeake because the eastern shore isn't part of the urban Hampton Roads area

[cvparty]

Stay tuned for more ferry chat! 

are you referring to my eastern shore thing lul

[cvparty]

Why do you split Lynchburg and Campbell?

Eastern Lynchburg has a high black population similar to CD-4/southern Virginia, so I was dividing those two counties west-east. Is that a no-no for you

[cvparty]

Here's my analysis for the MD maps.

Here's recap of the muon2 metrics, with their application to MD. Low scores are better.

SKEW measures the lean of the delegation compared to the statewide expectation based on PVI. CDs with a PVI of 0 or 1 (tossup) don't count. For MD the expected skew is 4 for the Dems. A plan with 6 D and 2 R will score a SKEW of 0 (6-2=4).

POLARIZATION measure how well the CDs will respond to changes in the electorate. Competitive seats with PVI of 2 to 5 count 1 and uncompetitive seats of 6 or more count 2.

INEQUALITY is a relative measure of the population range using the muon rules table.

CHOP sums the number of chops of counties, towns, and urban clusters. The UCC are from jimrtex's table. Macrochopped counties are those where the population after the largest fragment is removed is greater than 5% of the quota, and chops of subunits would then be considered. Since there are no agreed county subunits, each additional fragment over 5% adds 1 point to the chop score.

EROSITY measures the irregularity of district borders in terms of the number of broken connections between counties and subunits within counties. Since county subunits are not defined, a macrochop gets an additional 2 points for each border between fragments.

Plan	-S-	-P-	-I-	-C-	-E-
Singletxguyforfun	2	16	7	20	38
politicalmasta73	0	15	6	22	34
cvparty	1	14	6	22	37
Solid4096	4	16	4	xx	xx
muon2-A	0	15	13	12	30
muon2-B	1	12	8	12	31
jimrtex	2	15	9	18	32
AustralianSwingVoter	0	15	5	12	30
Torie-A	1	12	8	11	33
Torie-B	0	15	11	11	29

Solid - Do you have a version of your map that shows county lines. I can't score it for chops and erosity as is.

Under the I+C vs E Pareto test the following plans would survive:
ASV (17, 30) and Torie-B (22, 29)

My county splits:

Harford, Howard, Frederick, and Baltimore City are all split once.
Baltimore County, and Montgomery are both split twice.
Prince Georges is split thrice.

Harford: District 4 and 5
Howard: District 5 and 6
Frederick: District 7 and 8
Baltimore City: District 3 and 4
Baltimore County: District 3, 4, and 5
Montgomery: District 6, 7, and 8
Prince Georges: District 1, 2, 6, and 8

7 Counties are whole in District 1
1 County is whole in District 2
4 Counties are whole in District 3
1 County is whole in District 4
1 County is whole in District 6
3 Counties are whole in District 7

why not just turn down the opacity a little.

[cvparty]

New Jersey Non-Partisan plan.

I know that we are well past New Jersey but I thought that I should share this beauty. Of course, like all the other NJ plans it doesn't comply with the VRA but ignoring that, in addition to the mathematically required county splits (Bergen, Middlesex, Essex) only three counties are split, Morris, Burlington and Gloucester. And despite all that my plan still only splits two Townships, Old Bridge and Woodbridge in Middlesex. And despite not fully complying with the VRA (no majority Hispanic and Black districts) the Essex and Hudson districts are still plurality Black and Hispanic respectively.

District 1 D+12.13 - 64.1 - 34.8
District 2 D+00.86 - 54.7 - 44.1
District 3 D+13.75 - 64.3 - 34.6
District 4 R+11.79 - 42.6 - 56.1
District 5 R+08.75 - 43.4 - 55.4
District 6 R+04.35 - 48.2 - 50.7
District 7 D+17.66 - 65.1 - 34.0 - 43.9 White
District 8 D+22.71 - 69.7 - 29.4 - 39.8 Hispanic
District 9 D+06.31 - 55.9 - 43.3
District 10 D+26.66 - 75.5 - 24.0 - 40.3 African American
District 11 D+04.94 - 54.6 - 44.6
District 12 D+08.36 - 57.5 - 41.4

Philly suburbs and Jersey Shore are two different worlds. Going into Monmouth makes way more sense

[cvparty]

New Jersey Non-Partisan plan.

I know that we are well past New Jersey but I thought that I should share this beauty. Of course, like all the other NJ plans it doesn't comply with the VRA but ignoring that, in addition to the mathematically required county splits (Bergen, Middlesex, Essex) only three counties are split, Morris, Burlington and Gloucester. And despite all that my plan still only splits two Townships, Old Bridge and Woodbridge in Middlesex. And despite not fully complying with the VRA (no majority Hispanic and Black districts) the Essex and Hudson districts are still plurality Black and Hispanic respectively.

District 1 D+12.13 - 64.1 - 34.8
District 2 D+00.86 - 54.7 - 44.1
District 3 D+13.75 - 64.3 - 34.6
District 4 R+11.79 - 42.6 - 56.1
District 5 R+08.75 - 43.4 - 55.4
District 6 R+04.35 - 48.2 - 50.7
District 7 D+17.66 - 65.1 - 34.0 - 43.9 White
District 8 D+22.71 - 69.7 - 29.4 - 39.8 Hispanic
District 9 D+06.31 - 55.9 - 43.3
District 10 D+26.66 - 75.5 - 24.0 - 40.3 African American
District 11 D+04.94 - 54.6 - 44.6
District 12 D+08.36 - 57.5 - 41.4

Philly suburbs and Jersey Shore are two different worlds. Going into Monmouth makes way more sense

Most certainly, however i should stress that the point of the exercise was to attain the minimum number of split counties as possible, and as such it quickly became clear that Ocean and Monmouth should have their own district so neither would be split. And also, just to justify it to myself, is it really any worse than the current NJ-3, which stretches from the Jersey Shore to the Delaware River.

But why do counties matter? Especially in a state with 9,000,000 people in just 21 counties. And I'm not sure making a comparison to the current gross gerrymander is a sound justification

[cvparty]

VIRGINIA ENTRIES

01: R+09.12
02: D+03.70
03: D+08.98
04: D+10.17
05: R+10.77
06: R+15.04
07: R+00.78
08: D+17.51
09: R+19.89
10: D+05.45
11: D+15.20

1: R+12
2: R+1
3: D+13
4: R+3
5: R+6
6: R+14
7: D+11
8: D+22
9: R+20
10: D+10
11: D+8

1. R+9 (East)
2. R+2 (VA Beach, Chesapeake)
3. D+15 (Tidewater)
4. D+14 (Richmond)
5. R+8 (NorthWest)
6. R+14 (West Central)
7. R+8 (South Central)
8. D+22 (Alexandria, Arlington)
9. R+20 (South East)
10. D+10 (W Fairfax/E Loudoun)
11. D+8 (PW/S Fairfax)

muon2A

VA-01 (-17) D+1.3
VA-02 (-135) R+3.2
VA-03 (-105) D+17; BVAP 50.6%
VA-04 (+478) R+3.7
VA-05 (+451) R+11
VA-06 (-473) R+8.5
VA-07 (-664) D+5.3; BVAP 29.2%
VA-08 (-586) D+22
VA-09 (+427) R+20
VA-10 (+846) R+3.8
VA-11 (-224) D+11

muon2B


VA-01 (-640) R+7.6
VA-02 (-1016) D+3.7; BVAP 26.2%
VA-03 (+1514) D+8.7; BVAP 38.5%
VA-04 (-260) R+2.6; BVAP 26.9%
VA-05 (+451) R+11
VA-06 (+108) R+8.5
VA-07 (+2305) D+5.2; BVAP 29.3%
VA-08 (-292) D+22
VA-09 (+427) R+20
VA-10 (-2806) D+4.9
VA-11 (+207) D+11

[cvparty]

the md vote?

sadly we have not acquired the votes yet

[cvparty]

I tried to keep the coal areas together
1: R+21
2: R+20
3: R+18

[cvparty]

WEST VIRGINIA ENTRIES

WV-01: R+19
WV-02: R+21
WV-03: R+18

CD 1: (+277) R+19
CD 2: (+2) R+17
CD 3: (-280) R+22

1: R+17.21
2: R+23.45
3: R+17.81

Note: the area in the north outside the view of the screenshot is in District 1.

CD 1: (+113) R+18
CD 2: (+2) R+17
CD 3: (-116) R+23

I tried to keep the coal areas together
1: R+21
2: R+20
3: R+18

1. R+19 (+2940)
2. R+22 (+74)
3. R+18 (-3015)

[cvparty]

make sure you select "2010 voting districts" for accurate PA PVIs

[cvparty]

Could someone explain the areas of concentrated Asian population in Philadelphia?



It appears that there are three areas along the Montco line in northern Philadelphia. I assume that these probably extend into Montco, and  probably represent an upwardly  mobile professionals. Where are the universities. Isn't Temple south of Schuylkill? Where are Penn, LaSalle, Villanova, and St.Joseph's?

There are three small but concentrated areas south of downtown?, and then one just across the river.

Are these mostly Chinese with some Indian?

south philly has a lot of vietnamese people (little saigon)