CNN interviews Ohio Democrats, and they LOVE TRUMP more than ever.

[cvparty]

Ohio is becoming more and more like Missouri. Also they are going to lose a bunch of electoral votes so obviously they won't matter as much in the future.

tru

[cvparty]

Ohio is becoming more and more like Missouri. Also they are going to lose a bunch of electoral votes so obviously they won't matter as much in the future.

Like how your views about American politics don't matter because British Columbia has no electoral votes?

Ohio is becoming more and more like Missouri. Also they are going to lose a bunch of electoral votes so obviously they won't matter as much in the future.

tru

Gonna go out on a limb and say you've never been to Ohio or Missouri.

 

[cvparty]

... That proves nothing, except that you guys almost certainly never visited Ohio. Neither have I, for the record, but at least I don't proclaim to know the future political orientation of a state based on one Presidential election and a couple of out-of-context maps.

i have actually been to ohio but that matter is literally meaningless with respect to the topic/implication. which is why i only talked about the REAL topic of ohio's political trends. i'm not proclaiming anything lol i just think ohio will trend republican. of course i don't know for certain, no one does and no one's saying that. about context, i was trying to illustrate a general point cuz i didn't want to have to write everything out like i am now. yes between '08 and '12 for missouri the country swung 3 points but even accounting for that it trended hard R. and between '12 and '16 the country swung 2 points, but ohio trended hard R too okay.

Ohio wasn't some massive swing towards Trump; Clinton hemorrhaged former Obama supporters, due to a variety of reasons. Let's take a look at turnout in the state from the 2012 and 2016 Presidential Elections. Overall, 54,387 fewer people voted in 2016 than 2012.

5,590,934 - 5,536,547 = -54,387

yes it was actually. turnout dropped slightly, even if you added all those lost votes and make them 100% democratic, trump still has a 400k lead compared with 2012 where obama had a 200k lead. hell even if you make every third party voter go for hillary TRUMP STILL WINS.

Now, look at the change in raw numbers from Obama to Clinton and from Romney to Trump. There were 433,540 fewer people who voted for the Democrat in 2016 than 2012, but only 179,569 more that voted for the Republican.

2,827,709 - 2,394,169 = -433,540
2,661,437 - 2,841,006 = +179,569

third parties are a factor.

So, where did voter turnout drop the most?

Cuyahoga County (Cleveland): 645,262 - 608,879 = -36,383
Summit County (Akron): 268,358 - 260,346 = -8,012
Stark County (Canton): 181,746 - 176,165 = -5,581
Mahoning County (Youngstown): 121,584 - 115,971 = -5,613
Lucas County (Toledo): 210,621 - 198,830 = -11,791
Montgomery County (Dayton): 266,707 - 259,876 = -6,831
Hamilton County (Cincinnati): 418,894 - 409,109 = -9,785

What really happened in these counties?

Cuyahoga County
447,273 (Obama) - 398,276 (Clinton) = -48,997
190,660 (Romney) - 184,212 (Trump) = -6,448

Summit County
153,041 (Obama) - 134,256 (Clinton) = -18,785
111,001 (Romney) - 112,026 (Trump) = +1,025

Stark County
89,432 (Obama) - 68,146 (Clinton) = -21,286
88,581 (Romney) - 98,388 (Trump) = +9,807

Mahoning County
77,059 (Obama) - 57,381 (Clinton) = -19,678
42,641 (Romney) - 53,616 (Trump) = +10,975

Lucas County
136,616 (Obama) - 110,833 (Clinton) = -25,783
69,940 (Romney) - 75,698 (Romney) = +5,758

Montgomery County
137,139 (Obama) - 122,016 (Clinton) = -15,123
124,841 (Romney) - 123,909 (Trump) = -932

Hamilton County
219,927 (Obama) - 215,719 (Clinton) = -4,208
193,326 (Romney) - 173,665 (Trump) = -19,661

In counties where the Democrats lost the most voters, there wasn't a significant shift towards the Republicans. Voters simply went third party or, more often, stayed home.

like i said, third party. i bet a lot of people would've gone for trump had they not voted third party. even if you make all the people that didn't turn out from 2012 vote for clinton, trump still wins significantly. also, you're cherry-picking the counties by going with the most raw votes lost, not percent, to paint this narrative that voters didn't really shift toward republicans. look at all the rural counties where trump clearly made massive gains. athens county. morgan, perry, hocking, noble, monroe, etc. even trumbull which is urban. "clinton was unpopular" argument? so was trump. "dems can find a cleaner candidate" so can republicans...i'm not saying ohio is unwinnable, certainly dems can win it in 2020, but i DO believe it did/will trend R.

[cvparty]

Like I was saying to Virginia in a different thread, Trump staying steady while Clinton dropping heavily from 2012 doesn't mean it was just a direct transfer from Obama → 3rd Party. And in this case, Trump actually got 3.7% more than Romney.

this x1000