TX-SEN: True to Form

[cvparty]

yeahhh boi

[cvparty]

ok so ted is probably more popular than trump in texas but beto‘s more popular than hillary too...idk i don’t actually see enough republicans defecting to give beto the win. ik houston/dallas/austin/san antonio are steadily taking more of the state’s population share and trending democratic by the day but i still don’t think it’s enough to overpower the ultra-republican rural areas

[cvparty]

ok so ted is probably more popular than trump in texas but beto‘s more popular than hillary too...idk i don’t actually see enough republicans defecting to give beto the win. ik houston/dallas/austin/san antonio are steadily taking more of the state’s population share and trending democratic by the day but i still don’t think it’s enough to overpower the ultra-republican rural areas

Contrary to popular belief, the rural areas are not what make Texas super red. It is the sunbelt suburbs, and while the rural areas certainly do help, it is the suburbs that make Texas what it is.

no no i know, when i said houston/dallas/etc. i was talking about their metro areas, they make up a bulk of texas’s population but in 2016 they were only light blue (due to republican suburbs). even though the suburbs swung D majorly in 2016 they still brought down clinton’s margin by a lot to only like +6 in the most populous counties. then the massive 50+ republican margin in the remaining rural areas makes texas comfortably red

i’m not sure beto can keep/outdo clinton’s suburban performance

[cvparty]

you know if republican turnout is somewhat lower and beto doesn’t get absolutely demolished in the rural areas while maintaining/outdoing hillary’s margins in the triangle, he has a pretty decent chance

[cvparty]

you know if republican turnout is somewhat lower and beto doesn’t get absolutely demolished in the rural areas while maintaining/outdoing hillary’s margins in the triangle, he has a pretty decent chance

He definitely needs to outdo Hillary's margins in the triangle. Rural TX is not swingy at all, so Beto will get demolished there. He may do marginally better than Hillary in rural TX, but not significantly.

yes i mean by appealing to rural areas he could do less horribly than usual and lose by like less than 40 points instead of the high 40s

[cvparty]

There's a reason (actually several) why the democrats haven't won a statewide race in Texas in almost three decades. Yet, every cycle the Dems and the mainstream media convince themselves that this time is different. It's really, really different. This cycle the hated GOP will take a pasting, you just wait and see. Except it doesn't happen. Like never, ever. It won't this year either.

Beto will crash and burn just like all the rest for the last three decades. Texas will not elect a liberal democrat to the senate.

Here is an interesting trivia question. How many liberals has Texas ever elected to the senate? Answer - 1. In a special election in 1957 Ralph Yarbrough ran as unapologetic liberal and got 38%. In those days there was no runoff. Due to the nearness to the 1958 race he did not get a significant opponent in the dem primary. As 1964 approached, there was a developing donnybrook between the conservative and liberal wings of the democrat party. It got so contentious tha Pres Kennedy and LBJ flew to Texas to try to unify the factions. We all know how that trip ended in disaster. After the assasanation  none of the conservative Dems filed against him and he won in 1964. By 1970 his luck ran out and he lost to a more conservative Lloyd Bentsen. Thus ended the career of the only liberal senator ever elected in Texas.

I know some may think about LBJ. He certainly wanted to be liberal and was quite liberal as president. As senator, it's another matter. He ran in the 1948 primary as a FDR disciple and narrowly lost. However, his henchmen in south Texas stole enough votes in Duval county to be declared the winner. He did not make the mistake of running as a liberal in 54 and he worked very well with Eisenhower who was very popular in Texas.

Sorry for the length of the post. I love to talk about Texas politics and history. If any have not read the Robert Caro accounts of the JFK assasination and the 1948 dem primary, they are some of the best things you will ever read.

i like how u never say the reason
ah yes i remember when the democrats and the MSM were circle jerking to juggernaut wendy davis cuz we all knew she was really gonna be the one to #fliptxblue
also not everything stays the same forever! you can keep insisting that a democrat simply cannot by definition win muh red texas like w*lfric...until it happens

[cvparty]

I know the whole tweet's bad, but I'm really irked by how much of a reach that Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon reference is. He just wanted to throw that in there, and it's so low-effort and pandering. So it fits him perfectly is what I'm saying:
https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1032614754668486656

ted is so cool