CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Canis]

I voted No on Recall and mailed my ballot

Who'd you vote for in Question 2?

[Canis]

Lol, there's a guy named Denver Stoner!  🌿 😳

What are your thoughts on the recall Thunder are you for it or against it? what are your thoughts on the question 2 candidates?
I just got back from the gym and dropped my family's ballots off at a dropbox on the way home.

[Canis]

Calmatters is interviewing all the major recall candidates they just released their interview with Cox He seemed very well versed on the tax situation but on the environment he stumbled pretty bad imo

[Canis]

Faulconer goes on the offensive last night at the debate at Elder who wasn't at the debate
https://twitter.com/Kevin_Faulconer/status/1428004431363072004?s=19

[Canis]

So the recall is done for?

No, but the EV numbers look horrible for it but so far its only like 130k ballots returned a lot of time for stuff to change.
Also saw my first sign for the recall it was for Elder and Yes on the Recall whoever placed it though put it in an unstable patch of dirt and it was partially bent over and you couldn't really read it unless you were right next to it lol.
Calmatters just released their interview with Elder btw

Also, the Sacramento Bee finally posted the second debate that happened at the beginning of this week

and the third debate happened last night as well Faulconer absolutely tore into Elder in this debate as well I think this is Faulconer trying to pick up Democrat and Independent voters because most Rs are behind Elder.

[Canis]

My predictions changed to No +10-14 points
Momentum is clearly on Newsom's side Elder has mobilized Dems in a big way still a 10-14 point victory is an embarrassing margin in state as blue as Cali. The replacement candidate map will look like a mess for sure Elder will probably win almost every county because of how many dems are gonna leave it blank

[Canis]

My predictions changed to No +10-14 points
Momentum is clearly on Newsom's side Elder has mobilized Dems in a big way still a 10-14 point victory is an embarrassing margin in state as blue as Cali. The replacement candidate map will look like a mess for sure Elder will probably win almost every county because of how many dems are gonna leave it blank

What counties does Elder lose? Does he lose any?

The 2 I expect him to lose are San Francisco (Which I think Paffrath or some other D like maybe Joel Ventresca wins) and maybe San Diego to Faulconer.

[Canis]

[Canis]

Last night I got 3 Bernie Sanders No on Recall ads in a row on Hulu and one Larry Elder ad lol.

[Canis]

What counties might Elder lose on the replacement question?

Possibly San Diego to Faulconer, the bluest counties in the bay area to Paffrath or another D, and Kiley has a good chance at winning at least one of Sacramento, El Dorado, and Placer.

Besides those Elder should sweep the rest of the state.

[Canis]

For some reason Wikipeedia lists John Chiang as a candidate, but I couldn't find additional indication he's running again.

Yeah he's not I think Wikipedia is just listing candidates that filed. Im pretty sure Chiang filed to pay off campaign debt or something. They also have Cox listed and he's made no indication he's gonna run last we heard from him he's undecided on mounting a third bid for Governor.

At the moment the major declared candidates are Gavin Newsom Kevin Faulconer and Kevin Paffrath.
John Drake the college student from the recall is running again and is running a more serious campaign he's actually hiring staff and will probably attempt field.

Newsom is probably safe from another D challenging him he's very popular among California democrats and voters in general so it's just a question of which R he will face in November. Faulconer as the only major R in should be the favorite but he's very moderate and his attacks on Elder during the recall will probably damage him should a more conservative republican enter the race and he's a pretty horrible campaigner as demonstrated by his performance in the recall but who knows he may run a better campaign this year.

But regardless who he faces Newsom is safe he's very popular this is about as Safe D as they come.

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/BrianDahleCA/status/1491268827044540420
Republican State Senator Brian Dahle is in
Hes pretty conservative and reps the most conservative part of the state he's probably gonna be the CA GOP's sacrificial Lamb I don't see Faulconer Cox or Jenner if they run beating him out for a second place in the primary.

[Canis]

One race that will definitely be one to watch is the race for AG. Crime is one of the top issues in California today.
 The New AG Rob Bonta was recently appointed has been running as a progressive so far and in my opinion, has been doing a decent job so far.

Anne Marie Schubert is the Sacramento DA is running as an independent she was responsible for prosecuting the golden state killer shes running a tough on crime campaign but has been keeping her campaign out of hot-button partisan issues and has been endorsed by dozens of DA's, judges, and Sheriffs. If she makes the runoff she will definitely be the most dangerous opponent for Bonta as Poizner showed in 2018 NPP candidates can outrun R's by quite a lot.
 
Nathan Hochman is a former US Assistant Attorney General and has been endorsed by Pete Wilson Steven Cooley and most of the CA GOP. Hochman seems to be running a strong campaign for a republican but with California, partisan lean Bonta should be fine if he makes the runoff though Hochman might do better than your average R.

Steven Bailey and Eric Early are also back from 2018 I don't expect either of them to do too well but they may end up playing spoiler by splitting the Republican vote and allowing Schubert to make the top 2.

How do yall see the race playing out? and if Schubert makes the top two could Bonta lose? Im backing Bonta regardless of his opponent I'm pretty happy with the job he's done so far.

[Canis]

Faulconer is officially out
https://twitter.com/JeremyBWhite/status/1502134116438867968
Looks like the stage is set for this to be a Newsom vs Dahle Showdown.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/10/newsom-recall-2022-california-governors-race-00016417

[Canis]

Dahle is still in and the only Republican with name recognition in the race.

The state GOP has basically been emasculated by the recall, at least for 2022. Do a bit of digging and you'll find articles to describing how they halfheartedly are looking far down the ballot for targets and defenses. It's weirdly would be one of the best times for a primary challenge - as I theorized during the recall since the state GOP would be out of steam, the challenger could have a shot at the second runoff slot - but Dahle is the only non-Newsom candidate from any party with any seriousness.

Yeah, the recall made it clear that beating Newsom just ain't gonna happen GOP donors don't want to set any more money on Fire. Looks like the CA GOP's resources are gonna be used to mostly defend incumbents in congress and the state legislature and also go after some local nonpartisan races. Here in LA county they've been fundraising for scandal-ridden sheriff Alex Villanueva and trying to get the 3rd or 4th recall attempt on DA George Gascon on the ballot.

California is pretty much a three-party system at this point with the Progressive Dems, the Moderate Dems and the Republicans now.

[Canis]

California is pretty much a three-party system at this point with the Progressive Dems, the Moderate Dems and the Republicans now.

CA has more registered independents than republicans
[/quote]
It briefly did Republicans have slightly more now
https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/report-registration/154day-primary-2022
Democrats
10,275,371
46.7%
Republicans
5,271,141 
23.95%
No Party Preferance
5,039,628
22.9%

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1504247814200594434/photo/1
Controllers also gonna be one to watch
Ron Galprien is LA city's controller and he's been endorsed by pretty much all the local Dem politicians here.
Malia Cohen has been endorsed by the CA democratic party and is the most progressive candidate in the race shes who I'm most likely voting for.
Steve Glazer hopped in at the last minute he's one of the most moderate dem state senators he was part of the effort to kill calcare.
The mayor of Monterey is also in the race I don't expect her to be a significant player at all she doesn't have any endorsements or money and is running as a moderate.
Theirs only one R in the race so the rs have a good chance of making the runoff which is a fractured field but I also think a Galprien Cohen runoff is not completely out of the realms of possibility.

[Canis]

In some more positive news for progressives all 7 (2 were incumbents) of the candidates endorsed by NNU because they said they would vote for AB1400 (calcare) if reintroduced made it to the general!
Alex Lee (AD 24)
Pilar Schiavo (AD 40)
Wendy Carrillo (AD 52)
Isaac Bryan (AD 55)
Georgette Gomez (AD 80)
Dave Jones (SD
Aisha Wahab (SD 10)