538 model & poll tracker thread

[jdk]

I actually have a theory on why Nate Silver is dragging his feet-

I'm sure his forecast has Biden somewhere around 90%- he doesn't want to release it now, and risk Trump  making a comeback and winning, and then he'd have to deal with all these idiots who will hammer him about being wrong because they don't understand how stuff like that works- thus he'll wait until either Trump narrows the gap or we get to the point where he has zero chance of winning

[jdk]

Why do they have an option for a polls-only model for the Senate but not the presidency?

Because it would show Biden with higher chance of winning.

Nate is deathly afraid of making it look like Trump has no chance, so he's cooked the model this year to ensure Trump gets all of the favors... including gutting the polls-only model

Doesn't he realize that even if his model says 51-49 for Biden, and Trump wins, people will say the same things that they said last time?