(Thread) Interesting factoids about presidential elections.

[mianfei]

Donald Trump is the first presidential candidate since Zachary Taylor in 1848 to win both

• Carroll County, Illinois and
• Floyd County, Kentucky

Hilary Clinton is thus the first major-party nominee since Lewis Cass to lose both those counties.

[mianfei]

• In 1972, George McGovern lost all but 206 counties (excluding DC and Alaska) by at least 5 percentage points. No other major party nominee has failed to carry 206 counties.
• Seven non-national major party nominees since 1836 have won more than 206 counties, the most recent being George Wallace in 1968.
• McGovern lost all but 317 counties by at least 10 percentage points. Apart from Taft in 1912 when the Republican Party was divided, no other major party nominee has ever failed to win 317 counties.
• McGovern gained an absolute majority in only 112 counties.

What’s remarkable is that – again excluding AK and DC – 112 is the minimum number of counties required in that 1972 election to cast half the total presidential vote!

[mianfei]

1956 is the last time OK voted more Dem than the national average. 1956 is also the last time MA and NY voted more Republican than the national average.

Oklahoma and New York have had opposite deviations relative to the nation in every single election since Oklahoma became a state.

Georgia and Vermont have only voted seven times for the same candidate since 1824.
Both voted only once for the same Democratic candidate. Guess whom.

Clinton 1992.  VT never voted Dem until 1992 (except 1964).  And since Goldwater swept the Deep South it cannot be 1964.   Dems have not won GA recently so it had to be Clinton 1992 or 1996.  I then checked and found it was 1992.

SC, MS and AL have never voted for the same Democratic candidate as VT.

AL and VT have voted for the same candidate just six times since 1824 – 1868, 1872, 1972, 1980, 1984, and 1988. MS and VT have also voted for the same candidate only six times – 1840, 1872, 1972, 1980, 1984 and 1988.

[mianfei]

Had Covington city Virginia and Allegheny County Virginia been a single unit, the County as a whole would have been Trumps 2nd biggest win out of any Obama-Trump Counties in the nation, after only Elliott County, Kentucky.

I was surprised by that, but it’s correct. Alleghany County had a swing akin to Pike County, Ohio, which in 2012 had seen the closest county result in the nation since 1992, but Trump won by 36 points.

One wonders why Obama did so well in Alleghany County and Covington. Unlike Elliott County (which was the most Democratic white county in the nation in 1972, 1984 and 1988) and to a large extent Pike County (which was the only Ohio County to vote for Stevenson in 1956), it does not have a powerful Democratic history, and it lies adjacent to West Virginia where a substantial of the exceedingly rapid 21st century GOP swing occurred before 2016.

[mianfei]

In 1972, George McGovern exceeded his national percentage vote share of 37.52 percent by 4% or more in just eight states.

In 1924, John W. Davis doubled his national percentage vote share of 28.82 percent in nine states.

[mianfei]

2020 was the first election since 1892 that Ozaukee County, Wisconsin was more Democratic than Robeson County, North Carolina. (Of course back then both counties were much more Democratic than in 2020).

When I realised this back at the time, it really did surprise me — although the impact on the result in those two states where statewide elections have been extremely close in recent years was what stuck in my mind.

Apart from similar population size, the two counties could hardly be less alike in many respects. Ozaukee is one of the wealthiest counties in the country and is historically German-Catholic, whereas Robeson is one of the most diverse counties of its size but is very working class and segregated. Its large Native American population is similar in character to eastern Oklahoma — politically integrated with southern whites at least since the emergence of Trump.

[mianfei]

Some regional firsts/lasts (looking from 1856 onwards, since Dem vs. Rep became the norm):

First time the Northeast was more Democratic than the nation: 1928 (a 13% loss vice 17% overall)
Last time the Northeast was more Republican than the nation: 1956 (a 22% lead vice 15% overall)

First time the South was more Republican than the nation: 1964 (an 8% loss vice 23% overall)
Last time the South was more Democratic than the nation: 1980 (a 6% loss vice 10% overall)

First time the Midwest was more Democratic than the nation: 1964 (23% leads in both cases)
Last time the Midwest was more Democratic than the nation: 2008 (a 9% lead vice 7% overall)

First time the West was more Democratic than the nation: 1896* (a 29% lead vice a 4% loss overall)
Last time the West was more Republican than the nation: 1996 (an 8% loss vice 9% overall)


The Midwest is therefore the only region of the country not to have switched its tendencies over that long period: it's still more Republican than the country as a whole, and has been so in most of the elections during that time.

One further Midwestern stat: in 2016 & 2020 it ran 6.4% & 6.6% more Republican than the nation, which it hadn't done since 1944 (8.7% more). In fact, it hadn't deviated from the national average by more than 4% since 1960 (4.5%).

I’m going to do these by census division — I did the work over the past two days — but I am beginning at 1896 when most of the Mountain States had achieved statehood:

• First time New England was more Democratic than the nation: 1928 (a 6.93 percent loss versus a 17.42 percent loss nationally)
• Last time New England was more Republican than the nation: 1956 (a 24.14 percent lead versus a 15.40 percent lead nationally)
• First time the Middle Atlantic was more Democratic than the nation: 1928 (a 15.38 percent loss versus a 17.42 percent loss nationally)
• Last time the Middle Atlantic was more Republican than the nation: 1956 (a 20.84 percent lead versus a 15.40 percent lead nationally)
• First time the South Atlantic was more Republican than the nation: 1964 (an 11.24 percent loss versus a 22.58 percent loss nationally)
• Last time the South Atlantic was more Democratic than the nation: 1980 (a 3.84 percent loss versus a 9.74 percent loss nationally)
• First time the East South Central was more Republican than the nation: 1960 (a 1.34 percent lead versus an 0.16 percent loss nationally)
• Last time the East South Central was more Democratic than the nation: 1980 (a 1.03 percent loss versus a 9.74 percent loss nationally)
• First time the West South Central was more Republican than the nation: 1964 (a 15.16 percent loss versus an 22.58 percent loss nationally)
• Last time the West South Central was more Democratic than the nation: 1976 (a 5.84 percent lead versus a 2.06 percent lead nationally)
• First time the East North Central was more Democratic than the nation: 1964 (a 23.42 percent lead versus a 22.58 percent lead nationally)
• Last time the East North Central was more Democratic than the nation: 2012 (a 6.80 percent lead versus a 3.86 percent lead nationally)
• First time the West North Central was more Republican than the nation: 1900 (an 8.77 percent lead versus a 6.12 percent lead nationally)
• Last time the West North Central was more Democratic than the nation: 1988 (a 1.82 percent loss versus a 7.73 percent loss nationally)
• First time the Mountain States were more Republican than the nation: 1904 (a 22.94 percent lead versus an 18.83 percent lead nationally)
• Last time the Mountain States were more Democratic than the nation: 1948 (a 7.37 percent lead versus a 4.48 percent lead nationally)
• First time the Pacific States were more Republican than the nation: 1900 (a 13.34 percent lead versus a 6.12 percent lead nationally)
• Last time the Pacific States were more Republican than the nation: 1980 (a 15.11 percent loss versus a 9.84 percent loss nationally)

As you note, the Midwest is the only region not to have changed its tendency. In fact, the West North Central has only been more Democratic than the nation in 1896, 1932, 1956, 1972, 1984 and 1988. With the exception of the 49-state landslide Democratic losses of 1972 and 1984, all these elections were substantially affected by agricultural crises involving drought and/or farmer debt. 1984 was mildly affected by such issues, and 1972 of course is due to the influence of “favorite son” voting for landslide loser McGovern (consider that in his home state Hutchinson County and Turner County, which have never supported any Democratic presidential candidate except Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, voted more Democratic than the nation at-large).

[mianfei]

In 1980, Carter came closest in the East South Central states, which he lost, 49% - 48% (though he didn't win a single EV from that region). In 1988, Dukakis came closest in New England, which he lost 49.5% - 49.3%, and also came close in the Mid-Atlantic, West North Central, and Pacific regions.

What’s remarkable about Carter is that:

• in his two presidential runs he lost a total of twenty states by margins of less than three points
• in seven of fifty states (and very nearly an eighth, there being only an 0.01 percent difference) the closest result since the Civil War was a defeat for Carter

For comparison with the latter factoid, if we look at the closest presidential election in each state since the Civil War, we see that only Benjamin Harrison, with five of fifty states, is remotely close to Carter, and two of Harrison’s five cases were lost to Populist James Weaver in 1892.

[mianfei]

Some more figures by census division:

New England:

• Democrats’ biggest overperformance: 1964 (45 percent lead versus 23 percent lead overall)
• Republicans’ biggest overperformance: 1896 (41 percent lead versus 5 percent lead overall)

Middle Atlantic:

• Democrats’ biggest overperformance: 2000 (17 percent lead versus 1 percent lead overall)
• Republicans’ biggest overperformance: 1896 (21 percent lead versus 5 percent lead overall)

South Atlantic:

• Democrats’ biggest overperformance: 1924 (13 percent lead versus 26 percent loss overall)
• Republicans’ biggest overperformance: 1972 (37 percent lead versus 23 percent lead overall)

East South Central:

• Democrats’ biggest overperformance: 1904 (17 percent lead versus 19 percent loss overall)
• Republicans’ biggest overperformance: 1964 (11 percent lead versus 23 percent loss overall)

West South Central:

• Democrats’ biggest overperformance: 1904 (44 percent lead versus 19 percent loss overall)
• Since the admission of Oklahoma (during the “Solid South” era the only West South Central State with a viable Republican Party): 1924 (34 percent lead versus 26 percent loss overall)
• Republicans’ biggest overperformance: 2004 (21 percent lead versus 2 percent lead overall)

East North Central:

• Democrats’ biggest overperformance: 2008 (13 percent lead versus 7 percent lead overall)
• Republicans’ biggest overperformance: 1924 (35 percent lead versus 26 percent lead overall)

West North Central:

• Democrats’ biggest overperformance: 1932 (23 percent lead versus 18 percent lead overall)
• Republicans’ biggest overperformance: 2016 (14 percent lead versus 2 percent loss overall)

Mountain States:

• Democrats’ biggest overperformance: 1896 (63 percent lead versus 5 percent loss overall)
• Republicans’ biggest overperformance: 1980 (32 percent lead versus 9 percent lead overall)

Pacific States:

• Democrats’ biggest overperformance: 2016 (25 percent lead versus 2 percent lead overall)
• Republicans’ biggest overperformance: 1904 (41 percent lead versus 19 percent lead overall)

It’s notable that the elections of 1896 and 1904 are mentioned three times. 1924 (South Atlantic and East North Central), 1964 (New England and East South Central) and 2016 (Pacific and West North Central) are each mentioned twice.

No election from 1984 to 1996 is mentioned, although 1988 is extremely close to equalling 1932 for the biggest Democratic overperformance in the West North Central. Nor is any election from 1936 to 1960.