Washington state megathread

[bgwah]

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/today/2013/12/gay-vice-principal-loses-job-at-catholic-school-after-marrying/



Encouraging show by the students though.

[bgwah]

Washington is a socially liberal state, but is much more centrist on economic issues. During the 90s and 00s, social issues tended to dominate political discussion. That's been changing recently and this shift towards economic issues could benefit Republicans. If WA Dems ever make a big move for a progressive income tax, I could see that potentially being the GOP's comeback moment.

Still, it's hard to imagine Murray or Cantwell going anywhere. I'm pretty sure Dow Constantine will be our next candidate for Governor after Inslee, and he will be tough to beat. Whether or not Inslee wins re-election remains to be seen - thus far he's been pretty unoffensive so I'm inclined to think he will win again.

[bgwah]

Andy Hill's Democratic challenger looks pretty strong on paper: http://sammamishreview.com/2014/01/26/matt-isehower-announces-senate-run

[bgwah]

And a strong challenger for Rodney Tom emerges: http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2022830630_mcbridetomxml.html

[bgwah]

Kirkland bans pot stores in rich neighborhoods: http://www.kirklandwa.gov/Assets/City+Council/Council+Packets/020414/9a_PublicHearings.pdf

Funny/depressing given they've included a convenient map and table showing that part of the city voted for it most strongly, but I guess it's only okay if they are in poor neighborhoods!

[bgwah]

Do you think he's favored against Eide?

He was never the good kind of moderate, and he's probably just bitter he got demolished in the State Auditor primary.

[bgwah]

I wouldn't say he's favored, but it'll be a tough race for her. This is Pete von Reichbauer's old district after all!

So the district has a history of this sort of thing.

[bgwah]

I would respect these people more if they just ran as independents. But I realize that's easier said than done to some extent.

[bgwah]

I think McBride may have been favored against him already, but I would consider that seat Lean D now, which would leave Rs/Sheldon at 25-24.

Not sure what the next most likely D pick-up would be. Maybe the 28th?

Andy Hill has raised a ton of money (he'll probably run for Congress, but maybe not this year).

Fain's seat is usually close. Democrats would need to hold everything (including the 30th!). Hmm.

Summary please, Meeker!!

[bgwah]

If Sheldon were the swing voter again, would he allow a Republican to be majority leader? Would he want to be majority leader? Are there any Democrats he would support for it?

Andy Hill has raised more money than anyone else in any district, has been generally inoffensive, and the district is only marginally Democratic at best... I'm having trouble seeing him lose.

[bgwah]

Bump for filing week??

The congressional races look pretty dull aside from WA-4, which will probably only be interesting in the primary unless it ends up being R vs R, but there are enough Republicans running that I would guess a Democrat will make it to the general.

Larsen only has an independent challenger (and OWS type) so far, and Smith only has a Democratic opponent.

[bgwah]

The Stranger says SA is running against Chopp, although I don't see her on the SoS filing website.

Unusual party names that will appear on the ballot:
Republicanspirit Party
Framer Party (?)
Centralist Party (lol)
Marijuana Party (What's the point?)
Work and Wealth Party (Goodspaceguy)
Human Rights Party (yawn)

[bgwah]

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2014/05/21/pam-roachs-democratic-opponent-conservative-whos-called-for-obama-impeachment/

Pam Roach is always good for entertainment value.

[bgwah]

Unfortunately, the software crashes whenever I try to add it.  Yellow is 50%.  Intervals of 5 from there.  I'll try to re-do them with the scale added ASAP.

Alcon, did you delete your 2013 maps? Why?

[bgwah]

If the primary results are any indication, the Senate will remain 26-23, with the 30th and 48th districts canceling each other out. A fairly predictable result.

The 26th district looks to be a pretty close three-way at the moment, though Sheldon is hanging on to second place right now. Probably the most interesting result to watch.

WA-4 looks like it will be Didier (lol) vs. Newhouse. I imagine independents and Democrats will giv Newhouse the victory in November, but who knows.

Jess Spear has been crushed by a delightfully massive margin.

[bgwah]

Nothing too surprising in the Washington Poll, although Inslee's favorables are higher than I would have guessed (54-29). 

Interesting to note presidential candidate ratings as well:
Clinton: 55-38
Cristie: 33-40
Rubio: 27-27
Biden: 43-43
Cruz: 25-33
Ryan: 29-34

[bgwah]

Looks like the State Senate is staying 26-23 as expected. It would appear Ds are currently holding onto the state house 51-48, with a potential Haigh loss resulting in 50-49. I have no idea how late ballots will trend this year but I haven't noticed a potential 50th seat for Republicans.

17-1 (Stonier, D)
R up 525 votes

25-1 (Morrell, D)
R up 1353 votes

26-2 (Seaquist, D)
R up 78 votes

28-2 (Open, D)
R up 69 votes

35-1 (Haigh, D)
D up 223 votes

[bgwah]

Does it look like the R + renegade D coalition will hold in the state Senate?

It went from 24+2 to 23,  to 25+1 to 23. So the coalition is still 26-23 but official members of the Republican Party now hold a majority either way.

[bgwah]

Andy Hill would be a stronger candidate than Reichert, IMO.

Looks like the State Senate is staying 26-23 as expected. It would appear Ds are currently holding onto the state house 51-48, with a potential Haigh loss resulting in 50-49. I have no idea how late ballots will trend this year but I haven't noticed a potential 50th seat for Republicans.

17-1 (Stonier, D)
R up 525 votes

25-1 (Morrell, D)
R up 1353 votes

26-2 (Seaquist, D)
R up 78 votes

28-2 (Open, D)
R up 69 votes

35-1 (Haigh, D)
D up 223 votes

The Democrat is now leading the 28th by 240 votes, but Haigh is now behind by 157 votes. Looking like 51-48 House.

[bgwah]

No maps?

[bgwah]

Surprised that Oakville voted so heavily against it. Interesting to see how sharp the split is between Langley and Oakville.

A bit surprised not to see Bellingham on the top list too.

You might be confusing Oakville with Oak Harbor.

Yarrow Point in the top ten is interesting.

[bgwah]

I was just looking through WA's gubernatorial results going back into the 80s and I saw something weird.

How is it that Booth Gardner won Cowlitz county with 62% of the vote in 1984, but lost it narrowly in 1988, while sweeping the state? Even Garfield county voted for him (though I imagine Garfield County was not as Republican as it is now). Now that I'm looking, Wahkiakum County also swung significantly against Gardner.

Also why did Dixy Lee Ray get 60%> in Benton and Franklin counties in 1976?

The Republican candidate was from Cowlitz County in 1988 and represented that area in the state legislature.

Aside from being a conservative Democrat, Ray was a big support of nuclear power. The intro to her Wikipedia page includes quite a bit of information on that subject (link).

[bgwah]

Balducci challenging Hague for King County Council seat

Hague has had some extraordinary luck running against sub-par opponents in the past. Looks like her luck is finally running out.

(this news is a few months old at this point but I only just noticed )

[bgwah]

Two party breakdown for King County (US Senate race):
Seattle: 88-12 Democrat
Suburbs: 65-35 Democrat
Total: 74-26 Democrat

Yes, you read that right. King County was 65% Democrat without Seattle.

[bgwah]

Two party breakdown for King County (US Senate race):
Seattle: 88-12 Democrat
Suburbs: 65-35 Democrat
Total: 74-26 Democrat

Yes, you read that right. King County was 65% Democrat without Seattle.

Eh, the Senate race isn't really that competitive though.

The Democrats even have 70% of the two party vote in the race for Governor! I didn't think King County could get much more Democratic, but here we are.