oklahoma 2004

[memphis]

Kerry was just a horrible candidate.

Don't expect the same thing in 2008, though!!  Expect a much more competitive state.

Kerry was an ok candidate. Not great, for sure, but he did almost defeat a sitting president in the middle of a war, albeit a minor one. The counties that Mondale and Dukakis won were in Litte Dixie, which like Dixie as a whole has continued to swing hard to the GOP. Many of the old hardcore FDR folks that still voted Dem in the 80s are now dead. Oklahoma will not be even remotely competitive in 2008, primarily because its two urban counties, Oklahoma and Tulsa, are Republican strongholds.

[memphis]

Do you guys think I know nothing about Oklahoma politics?  Why don't you believe an Okie about Oklahoma politics.  Trust me, OKLAHOMA WILL BE COMPETITIVE IN 2008!!!!!!!!  You don't believe that Oklahoma is trending Democrat.  You don't believe me, which means you must think the Democrats or Republicans should NEVER spend time here or focus on our needs.

Do you think our 7 Electoral Votes are very vital and crucial, or are they insignificant?

Oklahoma was the fifth most conservative state in 2004. Oklahoma was 60-38 in 2000 but 65-34 in 2004. The only thing Oklahoma is trending is more conservative. Yes, Democrats or Republicans shound't spend thier time there because it is a lock to go to the Republicans.

So, if they don't visit us, how will they find out what we need from the lips of Oklahomans.  Are our needs not as important as the needs of Ohio or Florida?

You have some beef with the winner take all Electoral College system, which is totally legitimate. On a human level, of course a person from one state is just as important as a person from another state. However, candidates for president have to campaign where it will likely make a difference in their EC vote total, and under the current system, that is in large swing states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.  If you don't like this work to change the EC. Oklahoma, like my state of Tennessee, can in fact welcome Democrats at the local or statewide level. However, this never happens in presidential races anymore. Bush did 15 points better in OK than nationwide in 04 after doing 13 points better there than nationwide in 2000. In 1996 Dole did just 8 points better there than nationwide, and in 1992 Bush Sr. did only 5 points better in OK than nationwide. These are not the patterns of an increasingly competitive state.

[memphis]

I know, Gabu, but I'm just tired of people not giving Oklahoma any respect politically.  I was just speaking out of frustration.

Well, blame the voters or the electoral college, basically.  While I'd like to believe the idea that Oklahoma will be a swing state in 2008... well, just look at its electoral history since 1960 compared to the national popular vote:

2004: +28.68% R
2000: +22.39% R
1996: +16.32% R
1992: +14.19% R
1988: +8.93% R
1984: +19.73% R
1980: +15.79% R
1976: +3.27% R
1972: +26.55% R
1968: +14.99% R
1964: +11.08% R
1960: +18.21% R

There have only been two elections since 1960 in which Oklahoma was not over 10% more Republican than the national average.  As things stand right now, the Democrat would need to win the popular vote by 15-20% to have a chance in Oklahoma.  Unless Oklahomans decide to change that sometime soon, Oklahoma will unfortunately always be politically irrelevant (no offense) in national elections that use the electoral college.

It's not even about the electoral college.  There would be no point in campaigning in a scarcely populated solidly Republican state even with a nationwide popular vote.

With a nationwide popular vote, candidates would probably buy some tv spots in OKC and Tulsa markets. They're not really big cities, but this means the spots wouldn't be as expensive as in NYC and candidates would want to encourage people to vote. From Oklahoma's perspective, it would be a slight improvement over currently being ignored entirely.

[memphis]

Sweden uses a national vote system and it's evident how virtually all of the campaigning takes place in Stockholm. No one bothers with the rural areas.

In part wouldn't that be because everyone knows that (most of) the rural areas will vote for the Social Democrats regardless? Over here areas with lots of safe seats "tend" to get ignored as well.

Which is exactly what would happen with Oklahoma, of course.

Oklahoma is not all rural. Metro Oklahoma City and Tulsa together (they're not that far apart) are about the size of metro Kansas City or Cincinatti. Not the biggest population center for certain, but still worth running tv spots, which would be somewhat of an improvement over currently being ignored.