CNN Poll concerning midterms

[memphis]

I still think the generic ballot is overrated

ex. ME, while the state most likely would rather see a Democrat in the senate, they will send Olympia Snowe there with about 70%.

And states like NY which only elect one senator pump this total up, as a state like WY which only elects one senator has a low effect.

The generic ballot is never the greatest indicator.

The generic ballot is not good for the Senate, but historically has been a good indicator for the House. While I would love to see the Dems win back the Senate, I just don't think it's too probable.

[memphis]

The generic ballot is not good for the Senate, but historically has been a good indicator for the House.

Flat out just plain wrong.


The Dems led in the "generic" ballot in 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2002 prior to the actual elections.  It was basically even in 2004.

The GOP had House majorities in each of these election cycles.

Granted, the gap by which the Dems lead the GOP on the "generic" ballot is larger than before (I do expect the Dems will barely retake the House BTW) but to suggest the Generic ballot is historically predictive and meaningful is simply inconsistent with reality.

Generic ballot is good indicator if polling likely voters. Not so much for registered voters. Need to check polls to see who is being polled.

[memphis]

The generic ballot is not good for the Senate, but historically has been a good indicator for the House.

Flat out just plain wrong.


The Dems led in the "generic" ballot in 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2002 prior to the actual elections.  It was basically even in 2004.

The GOP had House majorities in each of these election cycles.

Granted, the gap by which the Dems lead the GOP on the "generic" ballot is larger than before (I do expect the Dems will barely retake the House BTW) but to suggest the Generic ballot is historically predictive and meaningful is simply inconsistent with reality.

Generic ballot is good indicator if polling likely voters. Not so much for registered voters. Need to check polls to see who is being polled.

Still wrong. 

The problem is people live in different districts.  The dems can easily win the nationwide vote in congress while still failing to regain control of the House.

Mathematically, your scenario is quite possible, but considering how most districts are gerrymandered, the generic ballot gives you some insight into how the few dozen competitive districts are likely to vote.