The South is Becoming a New Catholic Stronghold

[memphis]

Fastest growth by percentage doesn't equal "becoming a new catholic stronghold." In the typical rural Southern county, if 20 Mexicans move in (which is not such an uncommon thing these days) the Catholic population may well double. They're still a negligible population

[memphis]

Fastest growth by percentage doesn't equal "becoming a new catholic stronghold." In the typical rural Southern county, if 20 Mexicans move in (which is not such an uncommon thing these days) the Catholic population may well double. They're still a negligible population

If 20 Hispanics move in and the Catholic population doubled, it very well could be that there were only 10 or even 5 Catholics there before.  Especially in the areas where immigrants are coming from, Catholicism in Latin America is being replaced by Protestantism, especially of the Pentecostal variety.  And that's not to mention the quaintness of equating Hispanics with Mexicans.  While they are still by far the largest group, their share of illegal immigration has been going down.

1. You're making the same mathematical mistake, but in reverse. Protestant denominations are growing quickly by percents, but Latin America remains overwhelmingly Catholic. The 2010 Mexican Census found that 83% of the population was Catholic.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexico#Religion
2. Why do you presume Hispanics, Mexicans or otherwise, are illegal? That's quite an onerous suggestion.

[memphis]

2. Why do you presume Hispanics, Mexicans or otherwise, are illegal? That's quite an onerous suggestion.

Because those coming into a rural Southern county with no previous Hispanic population are to a large extent undocumented. 

Citation grossly needed.

[memphis]

Fastest growth by percentage doesn't equal "becoming a new catholic stronghold." In the typical rural Southern county, if 20 Mexicans move in (which is not such an uncommon thing these days) the Catholic population may well double. They're still a negligible population

If 20 Hispanics move in and the Catholic population doubled, it very well could be that there were only 10 or even 5 Catholics there before.  Especially in the areas where immigrants are coming from, Catholicism in Latin America is being replaced by Protestantism, especially of the Pentecostal variety.  And that's not to mention the quaintness of equating Hispanics with Mexicans.  While they are still by far the largest group, their share of illegal immigration has been going down.

1. You're making the same mathematical mistake, but in reverse. Protestant denominations are growing quickly by percents, but Latin America remains overwhelmingly Catholic. The 2010 Mexican Census found that 83% of the population was Catholic.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexico#Religion
2. Why do you presume Hispanics, Mexicans or otherwise, are illegal? That's quite an onerous suggestion.

Some central american countries are at around 40% protestant, though.

Which is why I referred to Mexicans in my original post. There may be a few Central Americans in the rural South, but they are far outnumbered by Mexicans.

[memphis]

Fastest growth by percentage doesn't equal "becoming a new catholic stronghold." In the typical rural Southern county, if 20 Mexicans move in (which is not such an uncommon thing these days) the Catholic population may well double. They're still a negligible population

Yea... pretty much.  I would love to see the South shift to Catholicism but it's not going to happen.  They'll become irreligious before they become Catholic. 

If the South turned Catholic it'd be just as right wing as it is now. Evangelical converts to Catholicism tend to be socon extremists who just love the RCC's positions on abortion and gay marriage. Look at Sam Brownback, Robert Bork, Newt Gingrich and NOM's leader Brian Brown. In fact I'd wager that Catholic converts to evangelicalism are more Democratic than vice-versa (due to high prevalence of Hispanics in the former and a non-insignificant amount converting to my type of evangelicalism.)

I meant "shift to Catholicism" through influx of new people, youngs embracing Catholicism, and older Protestants dying off. 

Virtually no youngs are embracing Catholicism. The retention rate is terrible, and while lots of other denominations have similar numbers, they're at least gaining some converts to offset it, while Catholicism isn't. In fact I think ARDA's last survey had the Catholic percentage declining despite large Hispanic immigration which is quite the demographic feat.

Anyway why on Earth would being Catholic make people more likely to support socially liberal and tolerant policies? You could at least hope for them to move to more liberal Protestantism like in the Midwest.

Because I've noticed Catholic people tend to be more socially liberal is all.

My personal observation is that once you adjust for different racial makeup and the "Catholic identity" factor, the difference disappears. White Catholics who go to church weekly or more are roughly as conservative as their Evangelical counterparts.

How many white Catholics go to church weekly?

[memphis]

And why do we only care about white Catholics?

Because making the statement ______ is more liberal than ______ is useless without controlling for underlying factors. In this case, Catholics might be more liberal than Evangelicals because of their relatively high share of Hispanics or their non-attenders retaining their Catholic identity at a high rate. You need to compare like with like in order to make this assessment.

My personal observation is that once you adjust for different racial makeup and the "Catholic identity" factor, the difference disappears. White Catholics who go to church weekly or more are roughly as conservative as their Evangelical counterparts.

How many white Catholics go to church weekly?

I haven't the foggiest.

I don't have a specific number to offer, but I can assure you that it's mcuh lower than for Evangelicals.