I just did some thinking on which internal dynamics we're looking for. Assuming the common knowledge that most Congressional Republicans would vote for a clean continuing resolution and that the hard right caucus gets their power from forcing a leadership vote, we should be looking for the dynamics of the leadership.
This is faulty. Most Congressional Republicans would
not vote for a clean CR. Almost all Dems would and a few dozen Republicans would. That's enough for an overall majority, but that's not how Boehner or most Republicans want to do it. And that's why we are where we are.