Red State, Blue City: How the Urban-Rural Divide is Splitting America

[memphis]

The only thing that has changed is that minorities vote. It's not an urban/rural divide. It's an ethnic divide.

[memphis]

The countryside wants/needs the gov't just as much as everybody else. All those long highways connecting them to the outside world didn't fall out of the sky. Nor did farm subsidies, Social Security, or any other government force they depend on. The difference is a matter of ethnic background. White people in most metros don't vote much differently than those in the surrounding countryside.

[memphis]

The countryside wants/needs the gov't just as much as everybody else. All those long highways connecting them to the outside world didn't fall out of the sky. Nor did farm subsidies, Social Security, or any other government force they depend on. The difference is a matter of ethnic background. White people in most metros don't vote much differently than those in the surrounding countryside.

In Chicagoland the white vote in Chicago proper is heavily D. The nonHisp white population of IL-6 and 9 were similar in the last Congress before the remap. Yet since IL-9 went into the inner suburbs and the city it voted far more D than IL-6. Again, it's not about the government used, it's the perception of the amount of service needed.

There will be a small Dem push in some white urban neighborhoods from Jews and gays, both of whom avoid the countryside like the plague. Still, it's not like Northern Illinois is some Republican bastion outside of Chicagoland. The counties along the MS River have a small Dem lean while those in the interior have a small GOP lean. Cook County is 44% non-Hispanic white and voted 74% Dem. Lee County, to pick a random N Illinois rural county, is 88% non-Hispanic white and voted 45% Dem. The racial math is not all that different.

[memphis]

The North Side of Chicago is very gay and Jewish. Maybe not quite as much as Manhattan, but it's up there. It's also not that white. I don't have the numbers for the new districts, but Shakowsky's old district was just 69% white. If you take out the gays and the Jews, it's questionable if the white would've voted for Obama at all Same for inner suburbs up there. Census has Skokie at 56% non-Hispanic white. Evanston's at 61%. Lincolnwood is 63%. Niles is 72%. Des Plaines is 68%. It's the white people in the Western burbs who are the weird ones. It's a lot like Milwaukee and Waukesha Counties, where white people in the urban areas vote roughly the same as white people in the rural areas, maybe a little more D because of the Jews and the gays.
Meanwhile the white people in DuPage and Waukesha counties are far more GOP than white people in either the city or the rural areas. This is only less noticable in DuPage because there are so many more minorites there than in Waukesha. Again look at NW Illinois for comparison. Knox and Whiteside Counties are both about 85% white and voted in the high 50s% for the President, even without the benefit of being a gay and Jew magnet. Even away from the river, the 85% white counties of Bureau, LaSalle, and Stephenson were essentially ties, with Romney winning by tiny, tiny margins. Heck, Carroll County is 95% white and voted for the President's re-election. There's a lot more going on than just county density. I don't see Chicagoland whites as being more Democratic than whites in NW Illinois.

[memphis]

The North Side of Chicago is very gay and Jewish. Maybe not quite as much as Manhattan, but it's up there. It's also not that white. I don't have the numbers for the new districts, but Shakowsky's old district was just 69% white. If you take out the gays and the Jews, it's questionable if the white would've voted for Obama at all Same for inner suburbs up there. Census has Skokie at 56% non-Hispanic white. Evanston's at 61%. Lincolnwood is 63%. Niles is 72%. Des Plaines is 68%. It's the white people in the Western burbs who are the weird ones. It's a lot like Milwaukee and Waukesha Counties, where white people in the urban areas vote roughly the same as white people in the rural areas, maybe a little more D because of the Jews and the gays.
Meanwhile the white people in DuPage and Waukesha counties are far more GOP than white people in either the city or the rural areas. This is only less noticable in DuPage because there are so many more minorites there than in Waukesha. Again look at NW Illinois for comparison. Knox and Whiteside Counties are both about 85% white and voted in the high 50s% for the President, even without the benefit of being a gay and Jew magnet. Even away from the river, the 85% white counties of Bureau, LaSalle, and Stephenson were essentially ties, with Romney winning by tiny, tiny margins. Heck, Carroll County is 95% white and voted for the President's re-election. There's a lot more going on than just county density. I don't see Chicagoland whites as being more white than whites in NW Illinois.

The western suburbs of Chicago have more "conventional' (read: Christian, family-oriented, straight, married with children) white people than the Jews, gays, singles, secular types of the North Side of Chicago.

Do you think the white people in the DuPage are more "Christian, family-oriented, straight, married with kids" than whites in rural N Illinois? Cause they vote a lot more Republican than the rurals do.

[memphis]

I sat down for a while and did some math regarding whites in Northern Illinois. Here's what I found. For my purposes, Northern Illinois includes the following counties: Boone, Bureau, Carroll, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Henry, Jo Daviess, Kane, Kendall, Lake, LaSalle, Lee, McHenry, Ogle, Rock Island, Stephenson, Whiteside, Will, and Winnebago. Furthermore, I'm calling the following Northern Illinois counties Chicagoland: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry, and Will.
A few points:
1. Whites in Chicagoland are almost exactly split in population between Cook County and the rest of the Chicagoland counties
2. About 67% of whites, who voted in Cook County, voted to reelect the President.
3. About 43% of whites who voted in the remaining Chicagoland counties voted to reelect the President.
4. About 55% of whites, who voted in all of Chicagoland, voted to re-elect the President.
4. About 10% of whites, who voted in both Cook and Lake Counties, self-identify as Jewish, about 2/3 of whom likely voted to reelect the President.
5. About 48% of whites who voted in Northern Illinois, outside of Chicagoland, voted to re-elect the President.
6. Only 43% of whites, who voted in Winnebago County, the largest county in Northern Illinois, outside of Chicagoland, voted to re-elect the President. Without the influence of Winnebago, the whites of Northern Illinois would have split their votes almost equally between the President and Mitt Romney.
7. Chicagoland's 55% vote for the President is roughly equal to Northern Illinois's 48%, once one takes Jews and gays into account. Any additional "urban effect" is limited to just a few points.
8. However, there is a great deal of polarization within Chicagoland with white Dems much more likely to live in Cook County and white Republicans much more likely to live in another Chicagoland County. This is clearly not merely the result of gays and Jews.

Whites voting to relect the President by Chicagoland county
1. Cook 67%
2.DeKalb 47%
3. Lake 46%
4. DuPage 43%
5. Will 43%
6. Grundy 42%
7.McHenry 41%
8. Kendall 40%
9. Kane 39%

[memphis]

There's not much to map. Cook is 60+%. All the counties around it are 40%+.

[memphis]

from great atlas forum i learn that there are no gays in the countryside

Must everything be in black and white? It's not binary, of course. But there is an undeniable migration of gays frrom the countryside into major cities. As true in northern Illinois as anywhere.

[memphis]

I sat down for a while and did some math regarding whites in Northern Illinois. Here's what I found. For my purposes, Northern Illinois includes the following counties: Boone, Bureau, Carroll, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Henry, Jo Daviess, Kane, Kendall, Lake, LaSalle, Lee, McHenry, Ogle, Rock Island, Stephenson, Whiteside, Will, and Winnebago. Furthermore, I'm calling the following Northern Illinois counties Chicagoland: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry, and Will.
A few points:
1. Whites in Chicagoland are almost exactly split in population between Cook County and the rest of the Chicagoland counties
2. About 67% of whites, who voted in Cook County, voted to reelect the President.
3. About 43% of whites who voted in the remaining Chicagoland counties voted to reelect the President.
4. About 55% of whites, who voted in all of Chicagoland, voted to re-elect the President.
4. About 10% of whites, who voted in both Cook and Lake Counties, self-identify as Jewish, about 2/3 of whom likely voted to reelect the President.
5. About 48% of whites who voted in Northern Illinois, outside of Chicagoland, voted to re-elect the President.
6. Only 43% of whites, who voted in Winnebago County, the largest county in Northern Illinois, outside of Chicagoland, voted to re-elect the President. Without the influence of Winnebago, the whites of Northern Illinois would have split their votes almost equally between the President and Mitt Romney.
7. Chicagoland's 55% vote for the President is roughly equal to Northern Illinois's 48%, once one takes Jews and gays into account. Any additional "urban effect" is limited to just a few points.
8. However, there is a great deal of polarization within Chicagoland with white Dems much more likely to live in Cook County and white Republicans much more likely to live in another Chicagoland County. This is clearly not merely the result of gays and Jews.

Whites voting to relect the President by Chicagoland county
1. Cook 67%
2.DeKalb 47%
3. Lake 46%
4. DuPage 43%
5. Will 43%
6. Grundy 42%
7.McHenry 41%
8. Kendall 40%
9. Kane 39%

You have to realize that in Cook County at least (less so in the other counties, but not entirely untrue), this is a bit of an apples/oranges comparison. It's like calculating the white vote in Brooklyn, you could do it and the number WOULD be interesting, but it doesn't really represent the "average white" in Brooklyn or any type of demographic there. Or to use another commonly used example in college textbooks, it's like calculating the average income of ten people on food stamps and one millionaire. The number doesn't represent anyone in the group.

I was not trying to find the "average person." I've stated many times that people do not average. We are not numbers. And even if a person were average on a number of metrics, he still would not be typical because it's very odd to be near the center of so many qualities. Most people are higher on one measure and lower on another. All I wanted to know was what percent of whites voted for the president in each county. Until I did the math, I very much underestimated Cook County whites. They are much more Democratic than I had expected, even discounting Jews and gays. I also did not realize that a slim majority of Chicagoland whites live outside Cook County, which helps to account for how Cook whites can been so Democratic. The Republicans have all fled to refugee camps in other counties.  I was wrong and I can admit it.

[memphis]

Many (not 'almost all') rurals vote and pray to the right in large part precisely because they feel, correctly, that they and their homes are stereotyped, denigrated, and despised by urban liberals.

This totally goes both ways. Rurals are not at all kind to the cities either. Your words: ugly, smelly, dangerous. At least the politicians on the left (usually) leave the countryside alone. Republicans regularly appear on tv, frothing at the mouth talking about "big city" "Chicago politics" "New York" "San Francisco values..." I distinctly remember in the 2004 debates, Kerry had just taken Bush to task and then W dropped the "Massachusetts liberal" line, as if that was some sort of retort to policy in Iraq. You almost never hear a Democratic candidate say ugly things about Texas. This divisiveness is much more a tool of the right than the left. And, whether people realize it or not, it's all about race. Because metro whites, although they self-segregate within the metro, vote about the same as rural whites in the same part of the country.