Obama will receive close the same percentage most Democrats receive of the white vote, not everyone votes based on race, Republicans shouldn't count on that.
The approvals tell it all, only 35% approve of Romney, while Obama is at 45%. Even if you assume all of those with no opinion would magically approve of Romney, the difference wouldn't be much and we all know everyone with no opinion will approve of him.
It has nothing to do with race. In the aggregate, Democrats performed far below Dukakis levels with whites in 2010.
Thing is the Dems don't need to do much better than Dukakis with whites. It'd be nice if they did, but the 2012 electorate is not the 1988 electorate. If you take Dukakis's percentes from the 1988 exit polling with self-described whites, blacks, hispanics, and others and move them into the 2008 electorate, Dukakis is at 49% nationwide. And that was back in 2008. 2012 will continue the trend of a browner electorate. The GOP has to win more and more whites every election just to break even unless they're willing to change their policies. How long do you think this is sustainable? The GOP is headed for long term minority status that will cling to the filibuster as their only tool. The Dems would be wise to go ahead and abolish it if they are in control at the beginning of the next Congress.
