British Local Elections, May 2024

[Coldstream]

It would be pretty humiliating for the Greens if they can’t take Bristol City Council. I’d honestly be shocked if they don’t win by a lot.

[Coldstream]

It would be pretty humiliating for the Greens if they can’t take Bristol City Council. I’d honestly be shocked if they don’t win by a lot.

Tbf, 2021 was a very bad year for Labour, the unpopular Labour mayor is on his way out, and the most recent by-election in a Green held ward saw a decent swing to Labour. The Greens ‘only’ won 1/3 of the seats in 2021, and this was largely based on winning naturally Green friendly wards rather than the Lib Dem style local targeting that will be needed for them to win majority (Bristol isn’t just Bristol West).

We won the mayoralty and the metro mayoralty on that same day. Marvin isn’t gone either, he’s still the mayor. And Bishopston’s “swing” was because the students weren’t there - it’ll be back to 1000 Green vote majority in May.

I’d love to be wrong, but it’ll only be a Green failure of seismic proportions that lets us keep the council. It should be a walkover.

[Coldstream]

I think if you’re not in Bristol you can’t quite appreciate the hatred for Marvin Rees (which is not unlike that for Sadiq Khan), and how it’s manifested particularly in the south of the city which may lead people who aren’t obvious Greens to vote for them just as anti-Labour vote.

Also the city has changed demographically massively in the last 20, even 10 years, its become so much more gentrified where places like Bedminster that were homogeneously white working class up until the last few decades are now completely changed. Even places like Knowle west and Hartcliffe are starting to gentrify.

Also the local Labour Party members are concentrated in the centre of the city, so they aren’t positioned ideally to go after Tory seats that are almost exclusively in the outer fringes. We should get Frome Vale + Avonmouth, I seriously doubt we’d get anymore without more work.

[Coldstream]

Time will tell, frankly I think net gains for us in Bristol this year would be nothing short of miraculous.

[Coldstream]

The Blackpool South declaration (presumably overnight) will be fairly important for narrative setting.

I would also think the Avon & Somerset PCC might be quite significant - Labour weren't too far off winning it in 2021 on second preferences and the areas with concomitant local elections are much better for Labour than the Tories.

We’ve got a chance at the PCC, and under the old system we’d win it easily. But I fear that too many people in Bristol will vote straight ticket Green, and people in somerset (the actual county - not including Banes/North somerset) are too conditioned to vote Lib Dem that we’ll fall just short.

[Coldstream]

You could see the Tories getting clobbered everywhere, though.

If so, who is going to win if not Labour?

I don’t think the Tories winning with under 30% of the vote in Avon & Somerset is that unrealistic.

[Coldstream]

What are the chances the Greens get a majority in Bristol?

Decent, certainly more likely than Labour. Will come down to a couple of wards like Ashley, Central, Lawrence Hill, Filwood and maybe Horfield. I’m assuming the Greens will take Eastville/Bedminster’s second seat.