United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Coldstream]

It is worth repeating, for those unfamiliar with British politics and polling, that the Reform % in polling is far ahead of what it actually is, as repeated poor by-election results have shown. These are the by-elections since their jump in the polls in late 2022, followed by the by-elections following UKIP's rise in the polls and their results in those against the 2015 GE result.


Constituency; UKIP 2015; Reform by-election

City of Chester; 8.1%; 2.7%
Stretford and Urmston; 10.9%; 3.5%
West Lancashire; 12.2%; 4.4%
Selby and Ainsty; 14.0%; 3.7%
Somerton and Frome; 10.7%; 3.4%
Rutherglen and Hamilton West; 2.3%; 1.3%
Mid Bedfordshire; 15.4%; 3.7%
Tamworth; 18.5%; 5.4%


Constituency; UKIP by-election; UKIP 2015

Eastleigh; 27.8%; 15.8%
South Shields; 24.2%; 22.0%
Wythenshawe and Sale East; 18.0%; 14.7%
Newark; 25.9%; 12.0%
Clacton; 59.7%; 44.4%
Heywood and Middleton; 38.7%; 32.2%
Rochester and Strood; 42.1%; 30.5%


Something's just not adding up.

I do think there’s something to the idea that Reform voters are the least likely to turn out in general, and therefore least likely to turn out in a by-election or local election. And this is compounded by Reform having no ground operation to speak of.

And I also think a lot of people who might have voted UKIP 13-15 are probably (back) voting Labour now. Whereas the Reform vote probably has a lot more ex-Tories in it? Even people who stuck with her Tories 13-15. The main polling difference between 13-15 & 22-24 has to be the weakness of the Tories vs strength of Labour.

But it would be good to have some actual analysis done.

[Coldstream]

One big question mark - which I haven't seen much discussion about - is the extent to which unhappy 2019 Conservative voters who now claim to be voting for Reform will, in the end, 'come home' for the Tories when they start looking at their own constituency more than at the national picture.

In the past, this sort of thing has worked out rather well for the Conservatives. Perhaps this time it won't because the election doesn't seem particularly competitive at this point, and perhaps many of these Reform/Tory swing voters are concentrated in Northern seats that will go Labour anyway this time, but it's a matter to watch.

If I were a voter in the UK, I can imagine I'd currently be enraged with the Tories' record in government (particularly its most recent iterations) and if a pollster were to call me today I'd certainly not say I'd vote for them. But chances are that if my seat would be even semi-marginal, Reform wouldn't stand a chance there, and my Tory MP or candidate would be decent, I'd end up voting Conservative anyway, despite everything.

In my experience, Tory-Reform switchers hate the Tories more than Labour now and aren’t afraid of a Starmer government. At least, they are less afraid than their desire to punish the Tories. This idea that they need to take a beating has really taken hold even amongst Tory voters and will be difficult to shift.

[Coldstream]

Tory economic credibility is in ruins.

Also ironic how Sunak was the most popular Chancellor in years.

At the time Sunak was paying half the countries wages.

[Coldstream]

I honestly think whoever wins Ashfield will get in with under 35% of the vote, potentially even under 30%. Reform will throw a lot at it (and whilst I agree Anderson isn’t beloved, it’d be wrong to think he’s despised too).

 Zadrozny is a ruthless campaigner, his legal issues haven’t stopped him til now - when I went there in 2019 I literally had someone say “the deep state want to take him down”. 2019 was a lot more febrile than now, but I’d be wary of underestimating his support too.

Labour will go hard at it, and we’ve got a good chance, but Zadrozny & Anderson will both have much stronger name recognition and potentially more resources (or at least equal). It’s one I really wouldn’t want to call.

[Coldstream]

Whatever happens it’s been handled with classic Sunak incompetence.

Though the one card they have left to play is causing uncertainty for Labour, so I can see a benefit to pretending to call an election.

[Coldstream]

If he is going to call an election, it’s clear he’s not consulted widely within the Tory Party. So he’d be starting the campaign having pointlessly irritated his own side.

Which, sure, sounds like something Sunak would do. But…this would be an appallingly bad example of party management even from him.

[Coldstream]

There’s a non-zero chance the cabinet/parliamentary party revolts to such a degree at this plan that Sunak ends up resigning/being deposed.

Not saying it’s likely, but it’s more plausible now than it was this morning. Sunak has really alienated a lot of people.

[Coldstream]

Does Corbyn stand a chance at holding Islington North? He’s likely running and Labour are of course going to run their own candidate. wouldn’t make a difference in the overall election, but still could be funny to see a gray blob in London.

He’s got a better chance than Claudia Webbe.

[Coldstream]

It’s a gift to Labour cos it’s something to threaten under-25 hippies flirting with the Greens over Gaza with. “Vote Green, you get Tory and conscription”.

[Coldstream]

Spent the day doorknocking, had 7 people raise to me the National service plan (all negative). Not since the dementia tax has there been such a poorly performing policy. It’s wonderful.

[Coldstream]

Sunak has 100% placed a bet on Labour to win.

[Coldstream]

It’s heartening how many people seem to have already ruled the Tories out on the doors. It’ll be hard for them to get them back if Reform run even a vaguely competent campaign.

[Coldstream]

It’s heartening how many people seem to have already ruled the Tories out on the doors. It’ll be hard for them to get them back if Reform run even a vaguely competent campaign.

What proportion of the doors you knocked on said they were voting Tory?  And… uh… why??

Probably fewer than 1 in 20. Some sessions we found none. Some of the people who say go away/no thanks will be Tory. And surely some of the undecideds will go back to them…but it doesn’t feel good for their health.

[Coldstream]

Westminster polling for Wales:

Will PC “keep” the 4 seats that the had in 2019? Obviously there’s been boundary changes and the notional results have them at 2 for 2019, but that doesn’t reflect the members elected in 2019. Speaking of whom…

PC might have a bit better chance of getting four seats now that Johnathan Edwards confirmed he won’t be standing as an independent in Caerfyrddin.

Most models/rational analysts expect them to hold the 3 seats with continuity to their present 4 - Arfon got axed.

Whether they get a 4th seems at the moment down to Ynys Môn which is hard to get a bead on in national contests. In other recent contests the island has become rather PC-friendly - for example the PC council majority. Notably the leader of that council is the PC candidate.

I’m not convinced they’re a sure bet in Ceredigion Preseli, I think Labour have a chance - maybe not a massive one, but it’s doable. Will likely be a very narrow plurality whoever wins. Which isn’t without precedent in Ceredigion, and the Preseli bit shouldn’t be that good for Plaid.

[Coldstream]

Starmer is going to have one of the most loyal PLPs ever, isn’t he?

Terror breeds obsequiousness not loyalty.