🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[Coldstream]

Hard to see how the maths works for Wilders to be PM, although denying him the office probably won’t go well for VVD. Maybe they’ll bite the bullet and gamble that he’ll mess up.

[Coldstream]

BVNL (one of the many FVD splinter micro parties) fail to enter parliament, meaning it’s a waste of far right votes - could be crucial in determining the eventual coalition arrangement.

[Coldstream]

Omtzigt has to be the biggest loser no? Surely whoever he goes in to coalition with he’ll lose part of his vote - and in a snap election they’ll get squeezed again.

[Coldstream]

GL/PVDA have the most to gain from a grand coalition *if* they lead it. Cos they get to be in power and therefore to do things, but it’d draw support from VVD to PVV & away from NSC (probably all over the spectrum) so I’m not sure why the right/centre would agree.

[Coldstream]

GL/PVDA have the most to gain from a grand coalition *if* they lead it. Cos they get to be in power and therefore to do things, but it’d draw support from VVD to PVV & away from NSC (probably all over the spectrum) so I’m not sure why the right/centre would agree.

I guess that depends on whether you think PVV has reached its ceiling or not. 37 seats is close to getting the votes of everyone who would ever even consider voting for them

Polls upthread suggested that VVD voters would rather work with Wilders than Timmermans.I don’t think it’s hard to imagine that if the VVD do make a deal with the left to shut Wilders out of the government that there’s more of a movement from VVD-PVV.

[Coldstream]

GL/PVDA have the most to gain from a grand coalition *if* they lead it. Cos they get to be in power and therefore to do things, but it’d draw support from VVD to PVV & away from NSC (probably all over the spectrum) so I’m not sure why the right/centre would agree.

Would it though.  In neighbouring Germany, SPD is at lowest point ever and in government so I almost feel like had CDU/CSU won in 2021, SPD would be in much better shape than they are.  Yes in Spain and Portugal by getting into government helped them but Germany is opposite so it comes down to economy and whether it improves thus benefit or worsens thus fall further.

Being in power is always better than not being in power if you have any confidence in your own ideas or ability.

[Coldstream]

GL/PVDA have the most to gain from a grand coalition *if* they lead it. Cos they get to be in power and therefore to do things, but it’d draw support from VVD to PVV & away from NSC (probably all over the spectrum) so I’m not sure why the right/centre would agree.

Would it though.  In neighbouring Germany, SPD is at lowest point ever and in government so I almost feel like had CDU/CSU won in 2021, SPD would be in much better shape than they are.  Yes in Spain and Portugal by getting into government helped them but Germany is opposite so it comes down to economy and whether it improves thus benefit or worsens thus fall further.

Being in power is always better than not being in power if you have any confidence in your own ideas or ability.

Is it though.  Portugal and Spain suggest yes as in both cases party came in second and got in from support of smaller parties, but next election won outright (yes fallen since due to fatigue of government and length in office) so if like those two then yes could work in favour.  But as I mention Germany is exact opposite.  I am pretty sure if SPD in Germany weren't in government, they would be in far better shape than currently are.

Anyone who’d rather be a popular opposition than an unpopular government should not (and in all likelihood would not) ever get close to any kind of electoral prominence.