UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Coldstream]

Do these Lib Dem victories portend anything enduring in all these safe Tory seats? Or are they just one time by-election protest votes and these seats will return to the fold in the GE? Would be interesting if we saw a similar phenomenon to what happened in Australia here.

Tiverton and North Shropshire look like normal Leave voting safe Tory seats. The LibDems are on track to do very well in highly educated Remain voting (or narrowly Leave seats) imo, I think they retain Chesham and Amersham. It does show the Tories have a very low floor to a minor party opposition.

Tiverton is also in an area with significant LD history, though. I think they could well retain this one, although the boundary changes will be a bit of a wildcard. I agree North Shropshire is the biggest stretch - but you never know, if the Tories are getting walloped nationwide they won't have the resources to spare to try to fight to win it back.

North Shropshire was unique due to the circumstances surrounding Paterson’s resignation, it’s not really that favourable to the Lib Dems - though farmers turning on the Tories doesn’t hurt them - whilst Tiverton isn’t that different from other rural West Country seats like Yeovil that they held for a long time, it’s just never had the local organisation in the past which is why they didn’t win it 1997-2010.

[Coldstream]

I don't know the numbers for Wakefield, but for T&H there were very few blank ballots--60 or so plus 50 overvotes.  There was some suggestion that angry Tories would vote blank, but they didn't.

If you’re pissed off enough to not be willing to vote for anybody else, then you almost certainly just stay home. This is especially true for by-elections.

They may have had postal votes, I’ve known people who want to abstain but already had postals to send in blank ballots.

[Coldstream]

Is there a chance the Lib-Dem By-election machine might start getting fatigued ?, the supply of new activist seems rather top heavy and I don't think they're recruiting that many new ones given the anemic polling numbers.

If they hadn’t won 3 in a row, maybe. As of now, why exactly would they get fatigued? This is what they live for and it’s working - and it’s working better than it has for decades. Not since they won 5 in 13 months 72-73 have they had such a run.

[Coldstream]

If there is an election in Somerton, it's also worth noting that Lib Dems are particularly enthused in Somerset, winning the recent unitary election there.

As for the MP That Must Not Be Named, his constituency is borderline - was ancestrally a swing seat but boundary changes and demographics have shifted enough that I don't think Labour would have the votes to win outside of a total Tory turnout collapse.

If you’re talking about Rees-Mogg, you’re wrong. Labour won the seat in last years local elections.

[Coldstream]

In the dying days of a Labour government we’d probably be in trouble here, under the present circumstances it should be a fairly comfortable hold. Though it’ll be interesting to see how the voters react to having an MP basically quit cos they had a better offer.

In some ways I think voters will be more irritated at having a by-election for something this unavoidable than a scandal.

[Coldstream]

Already the talk of parachutes being unfurled are spreading.

Yet to see the usual ‘will David Miliband’ return- tbf the new version of this is ‘will Andy Burnham’ run.

It could easily be his best chance but would break his pledge iirc.

Wouldn't he have to stand down as Mayor, as you can't be an MP and have the Police and Crime Commissioner powers at the same time, and the Greater Manchester Mayor has those?  (Same reason as Tracy Brabin had to stand down from Batley & Spen when she became West Yorks Mayor.)

Yeah he would- my hunch is that he’s hoping a Manchester based seat becomes available through retirement at the last minute and he can run in the GE. But ofc events have been changed from this time last year when he needed a seat to theoretically depose Starmer whereas now who knows- become Secretary of State for the North in a KS cabinet?

He seems to enjoy being Mayor anyway and is young enough to wait.

My money is on Graham Stringer personally, he’s a weird guy but I heard on the party grapevine that Burnham was sniffing around him in the event of a snap. Outside chance of Andrew Gwynne imo, he looks pretty miserable nowadays. Or, ironically enough, Tony Lloyd.

[Coldstream]

Already the talk of parachutes being unfurled are spreading.

Yet to see the usual ‘will David Miliband’ return- tbf the new version of this is ‘will Andy Burnham’ run.

It could easily be his best chance but would break his pledge iirc.

Wouldn't he have to stand down as Mayor, as you can't be an MP and have the Police and Crime Commissioner powers at the same time, and the Greater Manchester Mayor has those?  (Same reason as Tracy Brabin had to stand down from Batley & Spen when she became West Yorks Mayor.)

Yeah he would- my hunch is that he’s hoping a Manchester based seat becomes available through retirement at the last minute and he can run in the GE. But ofc events have been changed from this time last year when he needed a seat to theoretically depose Starmer whereas now who knows- become Secretary of State for the North in a KS cabinet?

He seems to enjoy being Mayor anyway and is young enough to wait.

My money is on Graham Stringer personally, he’s a weird guy but I heard on the party grapevine that Burnham was sniffing around him in the event of a snap. Outside chance of Andrew Gwynne imo, he looks pretty miserable nowadays. Or, ironically enough, Tony Lloyd.

Lloyd was really seriously ill with covid during the first lockdown and is not young, so it would be a surprise if he chooses to run again. Then again, it was a surprise he made a return in 2017.

Yeah but he & Burnham aren’t exactly fans of one another so I’d be surprised if Lloyd  stood down last minute to benefit Burnham.

[Coldstream]

It is remarkable how few byelections there were in the 2001-05 parliament especially, and that shows amongst other things the effect of having such a big turnover of MPs in 1997.

I could be wrong, but I don’t think there’s been a by-election in a Tory seat where the MP died of natural causes since 1997 - in part due to this massive turnover reducing the average age.

[Coldstream]

It is remarkable how few byelections there were in the 2001-05 parliament especially, and that shows amongst other things the effect of having such a big turnover of MPs in 1997.

I could be wrong, but I don’t think there’s been a by-election in a Tory seat where the MP died of natural causes since 1997 - in part due to this massive turnover reducing the average age.

James Brokenshire doesn't qualify?

Or indeed Eric Forth back in the 2005-10 parliament.

EDIT: there was also Alan Clark and (just!) Julian Shersby in the first Blair term.

I’d forgotten Brokenshire! I think I realised this back in 2020 - but I admit I was unfamiliar with Forth & Shersby. There have certainly been fewer than on the Labour side (Paul Flynn, Gerald Kaufman, Jack Dromey just off the top of my head).

[Coldstream]

Whats the calculus on who should challenge in Bedfordshire?

It seems to flip back and forth between Labour and the Lib Dems - presumably Starmer would leave it to Davey, and focus on the other two, especially given what an uphill fight it would be?

If the Lib Dems want to fight it, I imagine Labour will leave them be. The only way Labour are winning that is if the Lib Dems take a chunk out of the Tory vote, in which case they’re almost certainly taking a chunk out of Labour’s vote as well. Better to focus resources and expectations management on Reading West/Selby and Ainsty.

The boundary changes are a factor there too, not because the new Mid Beds looks winnable for Labour but because a small bit of the old one goes into the new cross-county Hitchin constituency, which might be.  So Labour may want to put some effort in in that bit.

Meanwhile Reading West is in some ways the opposite situation to Selby & Ainsty: the current seat should be an easy gain in a by-election but the boundary changes take Labour's best bits out and replace them with some very rich and usually Tory (though some of it voted Lib Dem or Green earlier this month) Berkshire countryside (and rename it "Mid Berkshire", not that it's in the middle of the county or anything) which makes it a real long shot.  So if Labour win a by-election there the MP may not be an MP for very long.

The (presumed) new Labour MP for Reading West may decide to seek selection in the new Reading seat - I’m fairly certain Matt Rodda hasn’t been reselected via trigger given that the constituency is changing so much.

[Coldstream]

With the recall petition closing July 31st it could be a really weird time to have a by-election - august or early September pre-conferences.

[Coldstream]

With the recall petition closing July 31st it could be a really weird time to have a by-election - august or early September pre-conferences.

Recall elections can't be called during recess, so it would be later.

Good point - so it’ll probably be well in to the autumn before we actually get a date.

[Coldstream]

Bet Ed Davey has an inhumanly wide grin on his face tonight. The set would have been a heavy lift for them in a general election, but it’s a fair sight easier to win than some of their recent by-election pick-ups.

And with a decent incumbent, it’s probably way more winnable in the general next year…

It's being split in two in the boundary review, but I think that's probably still true of the proposed Glastonbury & Somerton (which I imagine is the one of the two a Lib Dem by-election winner would stand in).

The new Frome isn’t much worse, of all the NES bit that’s coming in there’s only two Tories left, 4 Labour and the rest are Lib Dem already.

[Coldstream]

Interesting poll, though I think a few pinches of salt are needed, not least given that we still don't know that there is actually going to be a by-election there.

I think the Tory change should be -36, but even that is truly dreadful for them.  Even with a split opposition vote they will be very lucky to hold the seat if they're below about 35%.  Labour can use it to draw bar charts, which I imagine was the point.  The Independent is very high, though it is worth noting that Independents did very well in the Central Bedfordshire council election in May.  Reform are also very high given their track record, but we will see whether that track record changes in Selby & Ainsty and Somerton & Frome; they're not standing in Uxbridge & South Ruislip, where they did a deal with Laurence Fox, but we can probably think of Reclaim as being proxy-Reform-but-slightly-nuttier.

In other by-election news, there are rumours that the report on Chris Pincher's behaviour is about to drop and will lead to a recall petition in Tamworth.  Tamworth is probably even harder for Labour or the Lib Dems to win than Selby & Ainsty or Mid Beds; I know Labour did well in Tamworth borough in May, but the constituency also contains some uber-Tory areas in Lichfield district.

Most interesting thing about Tamworth may be what Eddie Hughes does, he’s been selected as the candidate for their in the next GE, but will he abandon his current seat to stand in a by-election? Thereby causing another by-election? Unprecedented situation as far as I know.

[Coldstream]

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Most interesting thing about Tamworth may be what Eddie Hughes does, he’s been selected as the candidate for their in the next GE, but will he abandon his current seat to stand in a by-election? Thereby causing another by-election? Unprecedented situation as far as I know.

I can't imagine the Tories tolerating him resigning from Walsall North and causing another by-election there.  One option might be to find someone to stand in the by-election on the understanding that they're just a stand-in, but I think that might be risky.

That also seems like a bad idea, cos it means Labour can just campaign saying that the Tory candidate is a stand in/won’t actually be your MP. There’s no simple way out of this conundrum.

[Coldstream]

What’s most bizarre is that Tory HQ backed Hughes for the selection, when surely they must have seen this possibility coming? Even if you ignore the recall, Pincher should always have been seen as a possible resignation.

[Coldstream]

Some in the media now talking up Labour's campaign in Uxbridge being hampered by ULEZ.

One remains slightly sceptical, in the absence of any hard evidence.

It came up on the doors, and the response is definitely weaker than Wakefield - but the antipathy to the Tory party *seemed* to me to be far greater.

[Coldstream]

Spent some more time on the doors in Uxbridge, ULEZ is coming up a lot - the Tory campaign is definitely working on feelings of anger & resentment that the people feel towards Sadiq Khan. Not convinced it’ll be enough, we seem to be ahead, but it’s definitely not a landslide homecoming like Wakefield.

[Coldstream]

If there’s a decently smaller swing in Uxbridge I can already see a potential Tory tabloids’ spin that it’s proof of Boris’s enduring popularity. Seems an appropriate level of tripe that qualifies for by-election “analysis”.

I’ve been genuinely surprised how little his name has come up, he’s definitely seen in the past tense already.

[Coldstream]

Spent some more time on the doors in Uxbridge, ULEZ is coming up a lot - the Tory campaign is definitely working on feelings of anger & resentment that the people feel towards Sadiq Khan. Not convinced it’ll be enough, we seem to be ahead, but it’s definitely not a landslide homecoming like Wakefield.

What, all of them?

Certainly felt like it - it’s hardly uncommon for far flung suburbs to dislike the citywide leadership. Bristol is much the same towards Marvin Rees. A cynic might say it’s for similar reasons, although I do think a white Labour mayor would face the same problems with places like Uxbridge.

[Coldstream]

Personally I think in the current environment even North Shropshire would be a hold for the Lib Dems. As people like Tim Farron, Norman Lamb proved 2015-19 the Lib Dems can overcome the Conservative bent of a seat with a good local profile even with strong Pro-Tory headwinds - and those don’t exist now. Christchurch ‘97 is the obvious counter to this, but it was a long time ago with an arguably more popular Tory party.

[Coldstream]

Personally I think in the current environment even North Shropshire would be a hold for the Lib Dems. As people like Tim Farron, Norman Lamb proved 2015-19 the Lib Dems can overcome the Conservative bent of a seat with a good local profile even with strong Pro-Tory headwinds - and those don’t exist now. Christchurch ‘97 is the obvious counter to this, but it was a long time ago with an arguably more popular Tory party.

I think it was more to do with it being Christchurch.

Without the boundary changes, I think the Lib Dems would have a decent chance in all four.  But all four undergo changes and two of them are carved in two.  Major boundary changes are rarely helpful for the Lib Dems as they are dependent on persistent hard work and getting people to get to know their MPs.

In North Shropshire the changes do them no harm, as they merely remove a couple of wards, and there’s no reason to think those wards are better for them than the constituency as a whole; indeed I suspect the reverse.  Chesham & Amersham gains Gerrards Cross (a very rich commuter town) and Hazlemere (a generally Tory suburb of High Wycombe, though one of its councillors is the Climate Party candidate from Uxbridge) and loses Great Missenden and some rural territory west of Chesham; as I said in the boundaries thread I’m really not sure what effect this has, and the trends in the SE mean that obvious assumptions about places like Gerrards Cross being very Tory may not be as valid as they once were, which takes some getting used to.

Christchurch is Christchurch, but they still won it with 60% of the vote - a reverse of what the Tories got in 1992. So there’s precedent for the Lib Dem’s to get massive swings in a by-election and lose it anyway. Even if that’s not what I think will happen this time.

[Coldstream]

I’m being sent to Rutherglen, should be interesting - I’ve never campaigned in Scotland before.

[Coldstream]

I’m being sent to Rutherglen, should be interesting - I’ve never campaigned in Scotland before.

This brings up an interesting possibility. The usual party strategy in a off-cycle contests is to flood the single seat with activists. Is there past evidence of differing doorstep reactions in Scotland (or other devolved areas) if its clear the activist isn't from said community? I know from experience some communities don't like outsiders 'preaching' to them, and sometimes they aren't the ones you expect.

It’s a reasonable assumption, although I suspect it’s probably overstated thanks to the anti-Scottish elements in the media post 2014. “Scots all hate the English” etc.

[Coldstream]

The real problem imho will be stupid activists who make flippant comments on the doorstep; honourable members do spend a lot of time talking to the public so should be slightly better than retired geography teachers

I’d be shocked if any English activist actually went all the way to Rutherglen. I’m expecting all staff & Scottish members. With the odd student at a Scottish uni depending on the time.