UK parliamentary boundary review

[Coldstream]

There are definitely issues with a lot of the random rural seats going Labour, however. To me the classic example is Central Devon - I just don't understand the theory of change for how a seat whose largest towns are Okehampton and Crediton and which has no historic or present industry is supposed to be a viable Labour target.

I agree, but Labour have done relatively well there the past couple of elections so clearly there’s some Labour potential, even if UNS ignores there’s probably also a relatively low ceiling.

It’s also a case of people being priced out of Exeter and moving out to the suburbs/rural dormitories. I don’t think we’ll win Central Devon, but if we get to ~430 seats it should be on the list.

[Coldstream]

I mean, at the end of the day, all constituency models like this are just best guess estimates.  Partially because of how swing behaves when the change is so large, Partially because the subsamples that would be required to determine relative concentrated change are small with high MOE,  and Partially cause it's now and the election is a year away.

However,  there is also one new reason we also have to take into consideration.  The limited evidence we have right now suggests a high level of tactical voting among the Lib-Dems, Labour, and Greens when relevant, in order to defeat the Conservatives. Who knows how long this will persist after Labour take power, but it is a thing right now. And obviously models can't really measure this phenomenon, except maybe the YouGov MRP. It's unlikely therefore that the Lib-Dems lose any seat where the Tories are the challenger. There also will probably be a lot more Lib-Dem gains than we expect.  The flip side of this though is that Labour’s seat count will probably be lower: not cause they are losing winnable seats, but because they aren't going to get the random out-of-nowhere marginal flips we see in the model. Because in those areas, the tactical voting may not go in the direction of Labour. 

Not convinced by this argument. If you take Chesham, Tiverton as representative then yes - but they were battered with Lib Dem propaganda in a by-election.

Realistically, the Lib Dem’s will not be able to seriously context more than 40-60 seats (and that’s being generous) for financial & other resource reasons. And whilst they may well get some on top of that (and I’d say it’s quite likely if the Tory vote continues to disintegrate), I think Labour are more likely to get the random flips of 15-20k majorities where we are second than the Lib Dem’s are to come from third in seats they can’t batter.

[Coldstream]

There are definitely issues with a lot of the random rural seats going Labour, however. To me the classic example is Central Devon - I just don't understand the theory of change for how a seat whose largest towns are Okehampton and Crediton and which has no historic or present industry is supposed to be a viable Labour target.

I agree, but Labour have done relatively well there the past couple of elections so clearly there’s some Labour potential, even if UNS ignores there’s probably also a relatively low ceiling.

It’s also a case of people being priced out of Exeter and moving out to the suburbs/rural dormitories. I don’t think we’ll win Central Devon, but if we get to ~430 seats it should be on the list.

But this seat doesn't really have any of those (except for maybe Kenn Valley ward and at a real stretch Okehampton). People may move to Torquay or Exmouth or Honiton because they can't afford Exeter, they don't move to the middle of Dartmoor. I don't know how we overperformed the demographics so much in 2019, but it's not an edge of conurbation seat as I would understand it.

Central Devon isn’t just Dartmoor though, in fact that’s only about 1/3 of its landmass - Exminster functionally is a suburb of Exeter now and is part of the constituency. All those little villages to the west of Exeter have the overspill nowadays.

Also it’s not that different to how East Devon revolted against the Tories and nearly elected an independent in 17 & 19 (at the very least came closer to electing one than Central Devon did to electing a Labour Mp) - which makes sense cos there’s more Exeter overspill there.

And if you look at both seats, the Tory vote hasn’t really changed since 2005 (in fact it’s gone up a bit iirc) - it’s just the Lib Dem NOTA vote disintegrated, and in Central Devon after voting UKIP in 2015 went to Labour (and went independent in East Devon).

Perhaps what’s notable about Central Devon is that people abandoning the Lib Dem’s went to Labour - and in 2019 didn’t go back.