Random Experiment: 2020 polling averages adjusted by 2016 polling errors

[DabbingSanta]

Map:

278-244 Biden win with Michigan uncalled.

Data:


My Thoughts:

1) Southern states could really be at play this year.  Statewide polling in GA & TX were near perfect in 2016 and 2018. Let's see if the trend continues.

2) Midwestern states are still only a polling error away for Trump, including MI/MN/PA/WI.

3) Note: This is assuming the election is held today. Polling aggregates will change between now and November and the race could look much different heading in to election day.

4) My point is that everything is still up in the air. Trump could still win on election day. Likewise, Biden could sweep all the states on my list. Judging by some of the comments on this board I think we have already forgotten polls should not be taken for gospel.

[DabbingSanta]

I'm not a fan of this style of analysis because these polling margins do take into consider undecided voters and therefore you create a systemic bias.

It would be much better to compare Trump polling average to Trump results and Clinton polling average to Clinton results.

Fair enough, I'll do some more research. Also worth noting that some of these poll aggregate numbers do not include polling with third party candidates, which may impact things as well

This is bullsh**t, Trump and other Republicans performed about 3% worse than their polling averages in Texas and Arizona

source:

https://www.270towin.com/2016-polls-clinton-trump/texas/
https://www.270towin.com/2016-polls-clinton-trump/arizona/

[DabbingSanta]

Just think about what would happen if you had adjusted 2016 polling averages by 2012 polling errors and maybe you’ll realize what a silly exercise this is.

Did you not read my disclaimer? Obviously the odds of this playing out exactly like 2016 are near zero. I'm just pointing out that Trump isn't necessarily screwed like everyone on here says, especially given we are five months out. Biden could sweep all the swing states in November, but he also could lose them. Worth noting Clinton had a huge lead in the summer, and at that point even I thought she would win a large victory.