Ontario General Election Prediction thread

[DabbingSanta]

Conservative 38%
NDP 36%
Liberal 20%
Green 4%
other 2%

Conservative 65
NDP 53
Liberal 5
Green 1

[DabbingSanta]

Conservative 38%
NDP 36%
Liberal 20%
Green 4%
other 2%

Conservative 65
NDP 53
Liberal 5
Green 1

My guess for London North Centre....

NDP 36%
Conservative 33%
Liberal 21%
Green 6%
Freedom 3%
other 1%

Let's see how things turn out.

[DabbingSanta]

Conservative 38%
NDP 36%
Liberal 20%
Green 4%
other 2%

Conservative 65
NDP 53
Liberal 5
Green 1

My guess for London North Centre....

NDP 36%
Conservative 33%
Liberal 21%
Green 6%
Freedom 3%
other 1%

Let's see how things turn out.

Preliminary results for Ontario:
+6.9 Conservative (predicted +2)

Conservative 40.6%
NDP 33.7%
Liberal 19.3%
Green 4.6%
other 1.8%

Conservatives 76
NDP 40
Liberal 7
Green 1


Preliminary results for LNC:
+16.7 NDP (predicted +3)

NDP 47.6%
Conservative 30.9%
Liberal 15.7%
Green 4.6%
Freedom 0.4%
other 0.8%

I was quite a bit off on both predictions, but I don't think anyone was expecting such a huge majority for the PCs..

[DabbingSanta]

I was quite a bit off on both predictions, but I don't think anyone was expecting such a huge majority for the PCs..

I would make the self-serving argument that I sort of did.  While I do not have the knowledge or expertise to venture a guess on how vote share convert to seats I did roughly get the PC-NCP relative vote share correct and asserted that PC will get a large majority with "large" being very ill defined.

I know very little but I might as well try

PC         40%
NDP       32%
LIB        22%
Green      4%
Other      2%

My view is LIB and PC are under-polled and in the end a lot of NDP leaning LIB voters will still vote LIB.  No idea of seats other than large PC majority.  

Nice!