Who wins this hypothetical governor’s race between Tim Ryan and Vivek Ramaswamy in a Trump midterm?
JD Vance barely campaigned, Vivek would win by almost the same margin without showing.
Sherrod Brown, a popular incumbent, in a democrat leaning year outspent his terrible unliked opponent by almost 30 million dollars and underperformed his polling.
Underperforming polling is a meaningless assessment of candidate strength, all that tells us is that the polls were getting an inaccurate sample. Brown won comfortably, well beyond what a normal Democrat could do.
Jim Renacci was the closest thing you could get to a sacrificial lamb, in a democrat leaning year, and Brown and Brown supporters, spent over 30 MILLION Dollars to Renacci's 7 Million to not even top 54%. Brown barely won places like Ashtabula and Wood county, despite the massive advantage.
Sherrod Brown has NEVER run in a year where it did not favor him. Hes a heck of a retail politician, and a pretty good senator, but to ignore his flaws is disaster.
Hes an incumbent senator with positive approval ratings polling at 39%, in a state where early polling tends to favor democrats. Hes in for, at best for him, the fight of his life. In a midterm for a row office (which democrats have not won a statewide non-federal race since 2006) hes toast
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