OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Rjjr77]

Bon Jovi is going to help Renacci fundraise. He's also hired Greitens deputy campaign manager.

Interestingly enough none of that money goes to a state race...

[Rjjr77]

Connie Pillich will not seek a lower office and is running for governor.

Thus begins the end of a promising career.
RIP Pillich

[Rjjr77]

Do Democrats have a chance for statewide office in 2018 in Ohio, a 8-pt Trump state?

Depends on the candidates, republicans have heavyweights for governor and AG and if Frank LaRose wins the SOS primary I expect him to win that seat, auditor and treasurer are open

[Rjjr77]

Do Democrats have a chance for statewide office in 2018 in Ohio, a 8-pt Trump state?

Depends on the candidates, republicans have heavyweights for governor and AG and if Frank LaRose wins the SOS primary I expect him to win that seat, auditor and treasurer are open

Keith Faber, for auditor, is running and is easily considered a heavyweight. H should clear the primary field, and I imagine Democrats would probably put their eggs in the Treasurer and SOS baskets with regards to downballot offices. Frank LaRose may be picked for LG, or, if Renacci retires, maybe he goes for OH-16, which does not quite include his house, but it does include much of his Senate district, unless someone else runs, and he's more interested in the state level. Didn't some other Republican already announce her intentions for SOS?

Faber senate president is a heavyweight Faber as a backbench house member is not. Auditor will be a seat dems could snag.

Pelanda and LaRose look to be the SOS candidates for the Rs LaRose is a top notch general election candidate, Pelanda is solid but no heavy hitter.

[Rjjr77]

Do Democrats have a chance for statewide office in 2018 in Ohio, a 8-pt Trump state?

Depends on the candidates, republicans have heavyweights for governor and AG and if Frank LaRose wins the SOS primary I expect him to win that seat, auditor and treasurer are open

Keith Faber, for auditor, is running and is easily considered a heavyweight. H should clear the primary field, and I imagine Democrats would probably put their eggs in the Treasurer and SOS baskets with regards to downballot offices. Frank LaRose may be picked for LG, or, if Renacci retires, maybe he goes for OH-16, which does not quite include his house, but it does include much of his Senate district, unless someone else runs, and he's more interested in the state level. Didn't some other Republican already announce her intentions for SOS?

The Democrats also have a solid candidate for AG (that and Treasurer are probably the best shots, assuming Leland runs).  LaRose could also very well lose the SoS primary to a weaker, far more right-wing candidate.  Even DeWine is very capable of blowing races if the tide is against him (as we saw in 2006).

I don't think Dettlebach? Someone no one has ever heard of matches up to Yost and his war chest. Yost is generally well respected by both parties.

Clyde can beat Pelanda, she can't beat LaRose. Faber and Sprague/Mingo are beatable.

The dems best hope is Pelanda beats LaRose, and Mingo beats sprague. And by some miracle Renacci or Mary Taylor win the Govs. Primary.

[Rjjr77]

Do Democrats have a chance for statewide office in 2018 in Ohio, a 8-pt Trump state?

Depends on the candidates, republicans have heavyweights for governor and AG and if Frank LaRose wins the SOS primary I expect him to win that seat, auditor and treasurer are open

Keith Faber, for auditor, is running and is easily considered a heavyweight. H should clear the primary field, and I imagine Democrats would probably put their eggs in the Treasurer and SOS baskets with regards to downballot offices. Frank LaRose may be picked for LG, or, if Renacci retires, maybe he goes for OH-16, which does not quite include his house, but it does include much of his Senate district, unless someone else runs, and he's more interested in the state level. Didn't some other Republican already announce her intentions for SOS?

The Democrats also have a solid candidate for AG (that and Treasurer are probably the best shots, assuming Leland runs).  LaRose could also very well lose the SoS primary to a weaker, far more right-wing candidate.  Even DeWine is very capable of blowing races if the tide is against him (as we saw in 2006).

I don't think Dettlebach? Someone no one has ever heard of matches up to Yost and his war chest. Yost is generally well respected by both parties.

Clyde can beat Pelanda, she can't beat LaRose. Faber and Sprague/Mingo are beatable.

The dems best hope is Pelanda beats LaRose, and Mingo beats sprague. And by some miracle Renacci or Mary Taylor win the Govs. Primary.

Leland would beat Sprague and absolutely clobber Mingo.  I've been pretty impressed by what I've been hearing about Dettlebach so far and Yost is a pretty weak campaigner.  Yes, Yost has a fundraising lead, but that'll shrink.  Schiavoni or Pillich could beat DeWine in a Democratic year if the Republican primary is a bruising one (as appears likely).

Dettelbach is law school friends with Obama, he shouldn't have fundraising trouble. And Yost is ... kind of a snooze. Yeah, he's established, but his name ID isn't great for a statewide office holder.

Dettlebachs never run for anything and is a complete no one, I think he's a massive underdog right now.

Dewine is beatable, not by Pillich or Schiavoni, and Husted would probably throttle those two.

[Rjjr77]

Do Democrats have a chance for statewide office in 2018 in Ohio, a 8-pt Trump state?

Depends on the candidates, republicans have heavyweights for governor and AG and if Frank LaRose wins the SOS primary I expect him to win that seat, auditor and treasurer are open

Keith Faber, for auditor, is running and is easily considered a heavyweight. H should clear the primary field, and I imagine Democrats would probably put their eggs in the Treasurer and SOS baskets with regards to downballot offices. Frank LaRose may be picked for LG, or, if Renacci retires, maybe he goes for OH-16, which does not quite include his house, but it does include much of his Senate district, unless someone else runs, and he's more interested in the state level. Didn't some other Republican already announce her intentions for SOS?

The Democrats also have a solid candidate for AG (that and Treasurer are probably the best shots, assuming Leland runs).  LaRose could also very well lose the SoS primary to a weaker, far more right-wing candidate.  Even DeWine is very capable of blowing races if the tide is against him (as we saw in 2006).

I don't think Dettlebach? Someone no one has ever heard of matches up to Yost and his war chest. Yost is generally well respected by both parties.

Clyde can beat Pelanda, she can't beat LaRose. Faber and Sprague/Mingo are beatable.

The dems best hope is Pelanda beats LaRose, and Mingo beats sprague. And by some miracle Renacci or Mary Taylor win the Govs. Primary.

Leland would beat Sprague and absolutely clobber Mingo.  I've been pretty impressed by what I've been hearing about Dettlebach so far and Yost is a pretty weak campaigner.  Yes, Yost has a fundraising lead, but that'll shrink.  Schiavoni or Pillich could beat DeWine in a Democratic year if the Republican primary is a bruising one (as appears likely).

Dettelbach is law school friends with Obama, he shouldn't have fundraising trouble. And Yost is ... kind of a snooze. Yeah, he's established, but his name ID isn't great for a statewide office holder.

Dettlebachs never run for anything and is a complete no one, I think he's a massive underdog right now.

Dewine is beatable, not by Pillich or Schiavoni, and Husted would probably throttle those two.

Husted would win easily in the general, but he's far from a sure thing in the primary.  Schiavoni and Pillich are more than capable of beating DeWine in a Democratic year.  Dettelbach is a solid recruit and Yost is a pretty weak campaigner with limited name-ID despite being a row-officer.

Schiavoni and Pillich are going to need a lot of help to beat Dewine, and I don't think either are the front runners in the primary right now.

Dettlebach is the kind of recruit whos competitive against another statewide unknown, he's going to struggle against Yost bad. Also can we call him a weak campaigner when his opponent has never run for anything? His name id isn't great, but it's not terrible, and it's a better ballot name than Dettlebach. I still think Schiavoni should slide down and run for that spot.

[Rjjr77]

Do Democrats have a chance for statewide office in 2018 in Ohio, a 8-pt Trump state?

Depends on the candidates, republicans have heavyweights for governor and AG and if Frank LaRose wins the SOS primary I expect him to win that seat, auditor and treasurer are open

Keith Faber, for auditor, is running and is easily considered a heavyweight. H should clear the primary field, and I imagine Democrats would probably put their eggs in the Treasurer and SOS baskets with regards to downballot offices. Frank LaRose may be picked for LG, or, if Renacci retires, maybe he goes for OH-16, which does not quite include his house, but it does include much of his Senate district, unless someone else runs, and he's more interested in the state level. Didn't some other Republican already announce her intentions for SOS?

The Democrats also have a solid candidate for AG (that and Treasurer are probably the best shots, assuming Leland runs).  LaRose could also very well lose the SoS primary to a weaker, far more right-wing candidate.  Even DeWine is very capable of blowing races if the tide is against him (as we saw in 2006).

I don't think Dettlebach? Someone no one has ever heard of matches up to Yost and his war chest. Yost is generally well respected by both parties.

Clyde can beat Pelanda, she can't beat LaRose. Faber and Sprague/Mingo are beatable.

The dems best hope is Pelanda beats LaRose, and Mingo beats sprague. And by some miracle Renacci or Mary Taylor win the Govs. Primary.

Leland would beat Sprague and absolutely clobber Mingo.  I've been pretty impressed by what I've been hearing about Dettlebach so far and Yost is a pretty weak campaigner.  Yes, Yost has a fundraising lead, but that'll shrink.  Schiavoni or Pillich could beat DeWine in a Democratic year if the Republican primary is a bruising one (as appears likely).

Dettelbach is law school friends with Obama, he shouldn't have fundraising trouble. And Yost is ... kind of a snooze. Yeah, he's established, but his name ID isn't great for a statewide office holder.

Dettlebachs never run for anything and is a complete no one, I think he's a massive underdog right now.

Dewine is beatable, not by Pillich or Schiavoni, and Husted would probably throttle those two.

Husted would win easily in the general, but he's far from a sure thing in the primary.  Schiavoni and Pillich are more than capable of beating DeWine in a Democratic year.  Dettelbach is a solid recruit and Yost is a pretty weak campaigner with limited name-ID despite being a row-officer.

Schiavoni and Pillich are going to need a lot of help to beat Dewine, and I don't think either are the front runners in the primary right now.

Dettlebach is the kind of recruit whos competitive against another statewide unknown, he's going to struggle against Yost bad. Also can we call him a weak campaigner when his opponent has never run for anything? His name id isn't great, but it's not terrible, and it's a better ballot name than Dettlebach. I still think Schiavoni should slide down and run for that spot.

Yes. Because as X said, he's really quite boring. Dettelbach needs to prove his hustle, but everything so far paints him as a serious contender.

Yost is boring, and a bit folksy, but it plays, people outside of the metropolises genuinely like him, plus he's got a pretty strong record as auditor to run on. I've rolled my eyes at plenty of Yost speeches only to hear the old couple on the way out the door hear how charming he is. He's Pat Boone, the cool kids may all laugh but the dude sells records. Dettelbach is literally a no one, he's got a ton of work to be a real candidate.

Right now I think Pillich finishes dead last in the dem primary, behind even Whaley, it's Suttons to lose, unless Schiavoni finds a big bankroll.

[Rjjr77]

I'm still with X. Though I'll admit bias, as I saw him at an event early and that put me on a hype train. However, I think the same can be said of Pillich within the primary. Again, she's starting with $435k on hand and raised $3.5 mil running for Treasuer in '13-14, as opposed to AG or Gov. Sutton, meanwhile, only raised $2.5 mil running in a competitive CD in a good year when she last ran for office. She's also not sitting on anything.

It's easier to raise money state wide then for congress.

I think Pillich is facing an uphill battle, Whaleys going to steal all the thunder as the loud mouth progressive, Sutton will suck up the labor money, Schiavoni will hold his own as the only man in the field.
Sutton: 42
Schiavoni:32
Whaley: 16
Pillich:10
That's my guess right now.


I think there's definitely Dettelbach bias coming from you two, considering a prominent democrat leader in my neck of the woods answered "who?" When I asked what she thought of him. After googling him she still had no idea who he was. That's bad.

[Rjjr77]

I'm still with X. Though I'll admit bias, as I saw him at an event early and that put me on a hype train. However, I think the same can be said of Pillich within the primary. Again, she's starting with $435k on hand and raised $3.5 mil running for Treasuer in '13-14, as opposed to AG or Gov. Sutton, meanwhile, only raised $2.5 mil running in a competitive CD in a good year when she last ran for office. She's also not sitting on anything.

It's easier to raise money state wide then for congress.

I think Pillich is facing an uphill battle, Whaleys going to steal all the thunder as the loud mouth progressive, Sutton will suck up the labor money, Schiavoni will hold his own as the only man in the field.
Sutton: 42
Schiavoni:32
Whaley: 16
Pillich:10
That's my guess right now.


I think there's definitely Dettelbach bias coming from you two, considering a prominent democrat leader in my neck of the woods answered "who?" When I asked what she thought of him. After googling him she still had no idea who he was. That's bad.

No offense or anything, but what is your neck of the woods?  I only ask b/c if it's rural Northwestern OH  or somewhere like Highland County, that'd explain it.

Urban NW Ohio.

[Rjjr77]

It's easier to raise money state wide then for congress.

If you're running for Governor. If you're running for Senator. Maybe if you're running for Attorney General. Treasurer, Secretary of State, or Auditor? I'd beg to differ.

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I'm not sure where you get the idea Whaley is a loudmouth? She's a fairly middle-of-the-road candidate, for all the hopes placed on her. Also very unconvinced she'll get in, personally.

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Sure. But I've not meant to say he's entering as some ultra-heavy weight. I'm saying he's a contender who, when he is finally thrown into the ring, should punch in the applicable weight class. It's mid-March of 2017, after all. The primary isn't for another year yet.

Whaleys no fool, and not afraid to drag national political issues into her city, she'll run as the bombastic candidate nationalizing the primary. I'm hearing she's in.

I think Dettelbach is a candidate, who for treasurer or auditor or even SOS would have some punching power, I don't think he'll be able to punch up to Yost, when no one knows him and he's a campaign novice.

[Rjjr77]

It's easier to raise money state wide then for congress.

If you're running for Governor. If you're running for Senator. Maybe if you're running for Attorney General. Treasurer, Secretary of State, or Auditor? I'd beg to differ.

Having worked finance in a small capacity for an (admittedly lackluster) AG candidate, I can verify that downticket statewide fundraising is a terrible experience.

I've done it in other states, it's a lot easier down ticket then you think. Having an OK candidate, especially against a disliked incumbent as Pillich had, makes it pretty easy to raise that kind of cash. Even Boyce raised 2 million for treasurer.


The only statewide Ds past two cycles to really struggle fundraising ran against Husted.

[Rjjr77]

If you're asking "who?" you're not alone. Kiefer is a former Wayne County Commissioner who hasn't been in office since the early 90's. He tried to make a comeback last cycle running for the State House but lost as a Republican. He's running for Governor as a Democrat.

Why people like this run for higher office eludes me.

He's got one leg

[Rjjr77]

Could the Dems pick his seat up?

One, if he resigns they'll be an appointment, depending on when the resignation comes there'd be no special.
Two, I don't think there are any democrats left in Butler County.

[Rjjr77]

Congresman Jim Renacci to file gubernatorial paperwork later this morning. While largely unknown outside of his district, he is one of the wealthiest members of Congress and can play off his early support for Trump.

Well okay then   If Renacci wants to throw away his political career, I certainly won't complain. 

The Democrats should definitely try to recruit a top-tier candidate here.  This seat is winnable, especially in a Democratic year.  Even Sutton almost beat Renacci (admittedly a weak-ish incumbent, but so was Sutton) in 2012.  While I'd prefer a stronger recruit who hasn't...you know...already lost here (ideally someone from either the swingy/mildly Republican-leaning Cuyahoga County portion or a moderates from the Summit County portion besides Sutton).  Actually, if we can't find such a recruit then at the very least Sutton could at least drop down and run here as wave insurance.

56-40 Trump, IIRC. Not impossible, but - difficult.

With a bad republican in a big d year sure...

[Rjjr77]

I believe it's been said he'd need to be in by the end of May.

I'm surprised that it would have to be that soon. As the Dem field seems to be relatively lackluster at the moment, perhaps he could afford to wait for a bit longer if it doesn't improve in the mean time?

Filing deadline is January / February sometime, but he'd need a full staff and apparatus ready to win a deep divided primary. I'd say may is the latest he could enter barring a field clearing incident

[Rjjr77]

I believe it's been said he'd need to be in by the end of May.

I'm surprised that it would have to be that soon. As the Dem field seems to be relatively lackluster at the moment, perhaps he could afford to wait for a bit longer if it doesn't improve in the mean time?

Filing deadline is January / February sometime, but he'd need a full staff and apparatus ready to win a deep divided primary. I'd say may is the latest he could enter barring a field clearing incident

Especially with Nan Whaley announcing "any day now."

Yep. The dem primary has the makings of a nastier primary than the R one as there isn't too much separating the bottom tier from the top. While things can change on the R side, I think it's clear right now that Husted and Dewine are on one level and Taylor and Renacci on a lower one.

[Rjjr77]

This is shaping up to be quite a crowded race on both sides... are there still any candidates we expect will run? Nan Whaley apparently is announcing any day now. Will Nina Turner run? Any other candidates?

For republicans, we have Taylor, DeWine and Renacci. Will Husted get in too? Any other candidates?

With such a crowded field, I'm wondering if any of these candidates will drop out to run for a different office (either for Congress or another statewide office).

Does anyone want to predict a general election matchup?

Husted is definitely in. I don't think Nina Turner is in, but in all honesty I could see Kucinich get in.

I'm doubting any one of these candidates leaves the race, MAYBE Taylor, but I doubt it.

I'm predicting a Husted Vs. Sutton matchup.

[Rjjr77]

This is shaping up to be quite a crowded race on both sides... are there still any candidates we expect will run? Nan Whaley apparently is announcing any day now. Will Nina Turner run? Any other candidates?

For republicans, we have Taylor, DeWine and Renacci. Will Husted get in too? Any other candidates?

With such a crowded field, I'm wondering if any of these candidates will drop out to run for a different office (either for Congress or another statewide office).

Does anyone want to predict a general election matchup?

Husted is definitely in. I don't think Nina Turner is in, but in all honesty I could see Kucinich get in.

I'm doubting any one of these candidates leaves the race, MAYBE Taylor, but I doubt it.

I'm predicting a Husted Vs. Sutton matchup.

I would say the Democratic race belongs to Richard Cordray or Jay Williams - if they run. Husted will hold the young vote and moderates/libertarians.

Jay Williams won't run. Cordray, needs to get in, he's got a bit over a month in my mind. If williams Rand he'd probably finish near the bottom of this pack. I wouldn't be surprised if he ran for Schiavonis spot.

[Rjjr77]

Franklin County Auditor, Clarence Mingo, will primary State Rep. Robert Sprague for Treasurer.

I wonder if the Republicans will be dumb enough to nominate him.

Is Sprague really such a good candidate himself?

Leland is a good candidate for the Democrats (assuming he gets in), and I'd be concerned with Leland facing off against Mingo than Sprague since Mingo will likely outperform other Republicans in Franklin County. Mingo's also more likely to outperform with African-Americans across the state.

Spragues a pretty good candidate himself.

[Rjjr77]

Just wondering, what in particular makes Mingo a bad candidate?

Placeholder for whenever I have time to make megapost about all his scandals and skeletons and general awfulness as a candidate.  And speaking as a resident of a fairly Republican part of Franklin County, he really wouldn't over-perform generic R at all here, especially not with African-Americans.  Leland would kick Mingo's a**, to be blunt.  Of course, that's what happens when you run an A-list candidate who happens to be a fundraising powerhouse when motivated against a weak B-list Republican.  The margin may not be a blowout, to be sure, but Leland's got this if he runs unless a much stronger Republican than Mingo gets in the race.

REALLY interested in this follow-up when you have time.

With Mingo's military background, plus being an African-American Republican office holding from a large Democratic county, I'd always assumed he's a potential future star. Not that I know much else about him.

Im not going to rumor monger, but we'll just say he has a lot of skeletons in his closet.

[Rjjr77]

From an election junkie perspective, I'd love a Sutton vs. Renacci match-up.

Id say shes the front runner right now on the D side, but hes got a big uphill climb. My guess is he finishes 3rd

[Rjjr77]

Who's Kasich's candidate?

He has publicly backed Taylor, his LG, in the run up to the race, I dont believe hes formally endorsed, the majority of Kasich's "team" appears to be backing Mike DeWine.

[Rjjr77]

Who's Kasich's candidate?

He has publicly backed Taylor, his LG, in the run up to the race, I dont believe hes formally endorsed, the majority of Kasich's "team" appears to be backing Mike DeWine.

Worth noting that happened after Taylor betrayed Team Kasich when she voted for the new, Trump-approved OH GOP chair, Jane Timken, over long-time Kasich ally, Matt Borges.

In fairness dewines campaign manager is a long time Kasich operative and he was hired prior to that

[Rjjr77]

From an election junkie perspective, I'd love a Sutton vs. Renacci match-up.

Id say shes the front runner right now on the D side, but hes got a big uphill climb. My guess is he finishes 3rd

"Right now" is the key phrase there... add in Cordray (& if the already-announced absence of Ryan were negated), she'd be in Renacci's position lol

Those are big hypothetical at this juncture. Cordray does not have a lot of time