OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Rjjr77]

Hate to double post. But Palenda now officially in for SOS. This could get ugly, as Senator LaRose comes from an independently wealthy family. That said, he was scheduled to have fundraiser in D.C. tonight with Sean Spicer headlining, and Spicer was allegedly made to drop the event from his schedule due to LaRose being so critical of Trump early on. Palenda can probably play on that, regardless.

This'll be a fascinating dynamic - Trump deep-sixing potential rising stars like LaRose over their initial critiques of him. I think it could hurt the GOP in a lot of races

LaRose claims it's a travel change, others wonder if Pelanda utilized connections to the Trump campaign to force spicer to pull out.

LaRose did help plan Trump's inauguration so who knows.

[Rjjr77]

Sutton to make her intentions known next week.

I'm hearing she's in

Gross

She's easily the dem front runner, Husted and Renacci beat her, She beats Taylor, Dewine is a toss up

LOL

Sutton is a weak candidate with absolutely no cross-over appeal and one of the few capable of losing to Taylor.  DeWine would wipe the floor with her, btw.  Renacci is a weak candidate too, so that would probably be a close-ish Republican victory.  Fortunately, Schiavoni will beat her in the primary unless Cordray jumps in.

Renacci is a fundraising machine who pulls outsider appeal.
DeWine is a weak candidate with a strong name. He's got the possibility to be the republicans Lee Fischer
Taylor's the weakest.

No one knows who Schiavoni is, unless Pepper steps in and clears the field for him he's going to struggle to match Suttons fundraising and national connections. Schiavoni could be a democrat rising star, but he's too early and too unknown, if he'd run for SOS he'd be the hope of the dems thin bench.

[Rjjr77]

Forget Cordray. http://thehill.com/regulation/211235-ig-report-cfpbs-renovations-spiral-to-215m-in-rented-building

I am pulling for Nan Whaley or Betty Sutton.

Nan Whaley is interesting, as a well known bomb thrower she could be a wild card in the D primary

[Rjjr77]

Seeing more Sutton stuff throughout the day, and it sounds like she will jump in. Unfortunate. I'm not quite so down on her as X is, but I'm not a big fan.

As for Whaley, she and Cranley should stick to the jobs they're both going to be elected to this Fall. Assuming they make it through their primaries.

Hate to double post. But Palenda now officially in for SOS. This could get ugly, as Senator LaRose comes from an independently wealthy family. That said, he was scheduled to have fundraiser in D.C. tonight with Sean Spicer headlining, and Spicer was allegedly made to drop the event from his schedule due to LaRose being so critical of Trump early on. Palenda can probably play on that, regardless.

This'll be a fascinating dynamic - Trump deep-sixing potential rising stars like LaRose over their initial critiques of him. I think it could hurt the GOP in a lot of races

Yeah, it looks like we'll have at least one pretty clear cut Kasich-Trump proxy battle in the GOP primaries.

What will the new state GOP do? If Timken backs Pelanda it may easily become the most interesting race of the spring.

[Rjjr77]

Cordray is damaged goods unfortunately, the Republicans will tear him apart over CFPB mismanagement fair or not, Sutton has less baggage.

Cordray is well liked in Ohio, and his pro-gun record is a help. He'd be a better candidate than Sutton. His biggest Achilles heel may be deleted emails from his CFPB tenure.

[Rjjr77]

Cordray is damaged goods unfortunately, the Republicans will tear him apart over CFPB mismanagement fair or not, Sutton has less baggage.

Cordray is well liked in Ohio, and his pro-gun record is a help. He'd be a better candidate than Sutton. His biggest Achilles heel may be deleted emails from his CFPB tenure.

I can already see the attack ads with his picture next to Hillary's...

That's the first thing that pops in my head as well.

The only interesting thing would be if DeWine were the nominee Cordray would get the NRA endorsement

[Rjjr77]

Cordray is damaged goods unfortunately, the Republicans will tear him apart over CFPB mismanagement fair or not, Sutton has less baggage.

It's like you have a fetish for boring and unlikable politicians.

Let's not act like Cordray isn't boring, he's not going to give awe inspiring room shaking speeches

[Rjjr77]

Cordray is damaged goods unfortunately, the Republicans will tear him apart over CFPB mismanagement fair or not, Sutton has less baggage.

Cordray is well liked in Ohio, and his pro-gun record is a help. He'd be a better candidate than Sutton. His biggest Achilles heel may be deleted emails from his CFPB tenure.

I can already see the attack ads with his picture next to Hillary's...

That's the first thing that pops in my head as well.

The only interesting thing would be if DeWine were the nominee Cordray would get the NRA endorsement

Republicans were sending Ohio-specific emails attacking Cordray MONTHS ago.

Has the NRA endorsed any Democrats since 2010?

In Ohio? I think a couple of state legislature candidates (Rogers, Cera, and Patterson come to mind) got it, Cordray and Strickland in '10 was the last state wide.

[Rjjr77]

Betty Sutton will be good for our Democratic candidate in 2020 because it was Clinton

If she wins... Again the GOP has the better candidates right now

[Rjjr77]

Sophomore Rep. Great Johnson (D-Akron) is resigning because she feels stymied by the working environment in the State House.

The Ohio House Democratic Caucus will get to choose her replacement. There shouldn't be a special election.

Sykes or sawyer here we come

[Rjjr77]

Sophomore Rep. Great Johnson (D-Akron) is resigning because she feels stymied by the working environment in the State House.

The Ohio House Democratic Caucus will get to choose her replacement. There shouldn't be a special election.

Sykes or sawyer here we come

Vernon Sykes was just elected to the State Senate this past fall to replace Sawyer.

Hopefully we can get some fresh blood.

Yeah... And his daughter took his place, just like his wife used to.

The summit dems have let one young person into the game in how long? And that was Johnson.

[Rjjr77]

Sophomore Rep. Great Johnson (D-Akron) is resigning because she feels stymied by the working environment in the State House.

The Ohio House Democratic Caucus will get to choose her replacement. There shouldn't be a special election.

Sykes or sawyer here we come

Vernon Sykes was just elected to the State Senate this past fall to replace Sawyer.

Hopefully we can get some fresh blood.

Yeah... And his daughter took his place, just like his wife used to.

The summit dems have let one young person into the game in how long? And that was Johnson.

Vern Sykes is in the Senate. His daughter Emilia is in his old House Seat. Barbara, his wife, could go to the House again, but she lives in the same district as her daughter, so...

Sawyer's an option, but it's a sad thing to watch a former Congressman go (back) to the State House. That said, Boccieri's done it. With Schiavoni term limited out, he can hopefully make it back to the State Senate in '18.

Vernon has another daughter.

So much flip flopping goes on in Ohio, it's never sad to see anyone bounce anywhere, in all honesty if sawyers healthy he'll probably get it.

[Rjjr77]

Betty Sutton will be good for our Democratic candidate in 2020 because it wasnt Clinton

If she wins... Again the GOP has the better candidates right now

Mary Taylor and Betty Sutton will be an even contest.

Mary Taylor winning the GOP nomination would be a huge upset

[Rjjr77]

Betty Sutton will be good for our Democratic candidate in 2020 because it wasnt Clinton

If she wins... Again the GOP has the better candidates right now

Mary Taylor and Betty Sutton will be an even contest.

Mary Taylor winning the GOP nomination would be a huge upset

Right now I see this as mostly a Husted vs. DeWine race, with Taylor and Renacci simply minor candidates who could play "spoiler."

Agreed. The rising star powerhouse vs the state institution.

Husted is easily the most complete candidate in the whole field (R and D)

[Rjjr77]

So who's on track to run for the Dem nomination?

My betting odds for winning:
3-1 Betty Sutton
8-1 Joe Schiavoni (only declared)
20-1 Nan Whaley
50-1 Bill O'Neill
500-1 Jerry Springer

[Rjjr77]

Rep. Rob Sprauge (R-Findlay) has announced a run for Treasurer.

And the Republican contenders all met in Cincinnati for a pancake breakfast. Taylor praised Trump for his EO on cutting regulations and emphasized Kasich's backing; DeWine praised Sessions as an old Senate ally and prosecutor; Husted avoided linking himself to Trump and made a pitch to de-escalate abortion rhetoric; and Renacci was basically left to introduce himself to a much wide audience than he's known in Congress, he played up his decision to run for Congress after the auto bailout didn't do enough for his dealership, and generally painted himself as a Trump-like business outsider.

EDIT: Nan Whaley is running opposed in her race for a second term as Mayor of Dayton, freeing up time and resources to run for Governor, if she so desires.

Sprague vs. Mingo could turn out to be the most interesting primary.

[Rjjr77]

Rep. Rob Sprauge (R-Findlay) has announced a run for Treasurer.

And the Republican contenders all met in Cincinnati for a pancake breakfast. Taylor praised Trump for his EO on cutting regulations and emphasized Kasich's backing; DeWine praised Sessions as an old Senate ally and prosecutor; Husted avoided linking himself to Trump and made a pitch to de-escalate abortion rhetoric; and Renacci was basically left to introduce himself to a much wide audience than he's known in Congress, he played up his decision to run for Congress after the auto bailout didn't do enough for his dealership, and generally painted himself as a Trump-like business outsider.

EDIT: Nan Whaley is running opposed in her race for a second term as Mayor of Dayton, freeing up time and resources to run for Governor, if she so desires.

Sprague vs. Mingo could turn out to be the most interesting primary.

Mingo has more skeletons in his closet than Newt Gingrich.

I think the Franklin County Republican Party would be sorely remiss if they let Mingo go. (Though he's clearly interested in running.) They only hold 3 county offices, and that includes Engineer, which is sort of a joke, as far as partisanship is concerned. A real backslide, since Dems really only started winning Franklin in '96.

What skeletons are you referring to, X?

Does anyone care if the Franklin co party holds any office other than prosecutor? Particularly vs. having a favorable ear running a statewide agency's?

And he has a ton of skeletons, I won't trade in rumors but they are there.

[Rjjr77]

Rep. Rob Sprauge (R-Findlay) has announced a run for Treasurer.

And the Republican contenders all met in Cincinnati for a pancake breakfast. Taylor praised Trump for his EO on cutting regulations and emphasized Kasich's backing; DeWine praised Sessions as an old Senate ally and prosecutor; Husted avoided linking himself to Trump and made a pitch to de-escalate abortion rhetoric; and Renacci was basically left to introduce himself to a much wide audience than he's known in Congress, he played up his decision to run for Congress after the auto bailout didn't do enough for his dealership, and generally painted himself as a Trump-like business outsider.

EDIT: Nan Whaley is running opposed in her race for a second term as Mayor of Dayton, freeing up time and resources to run for Governor, if she so desires.

Sprague vs. Mingo could turn out to be the most interesting primary.

Mingo has more skeletons in his closet than Newt Gingrich.

I think the Franklin County Republican Party would be sorely remiss if they let Mingo go. (Though he's clearly interested in running.) They only hold 3 county offices, and that includes Engineer, which is sort of a joke, as far as partisanship is concerned. A real backslide, since Dems really only started winning Franklin in '96.

What skeletons are you referring to, X?

Does anyone care if the Franklin co party holds any office other than prosecutor? Particularly vs. having a favorable ear running a statewide agency's?

And he has a ton of skeletons, I won't trade in rumors but they are there.

I don't want to encourage the rumor trade, but if there's anything that's been serious to write about in the Dispatch, it's probably worth discussing. (Not that I can find anything so serious.)

If they were published I'd mention them, I know they are out there and a few are doozies but I'll leave it at that

[Rjjr77]

So who's on track to run for the Dem nomination?

My betting odds for winning:
3-1 Betty Sutton
8-1 Joe Schiavoni (only declared)
20-1 Nan Whaley
50-1 Bill O'Neill
500-1 Jerry Springer

With Sutton in updated Odds
1-1 Sutton
10-1 schiavoni
23-1 Whaley
50-1 O'Neill
500-1 Springer

[Rjjr77]

Sutton has superior name recognition, obviously, but I'm skeptical about her campaign chops. We'll see

Schiavoni should win the nomination although it's admittedly not a lock.  Sutton is a pretty weak candidate, as I've said before. 

Schiavoni would be the best candidate, but he'll have a name ID problem, a money problem, and would have a lot of coming back to do. Sutton vs Schiavoni he can win 1-1, the addition of any other candidate only hurts him more.

[Rjjr77]

Schiavoni's money problem is deceptive. He may not have a lot in the bank himself, but that's because he was doing a lot of fundraising for the Senate Democrats. People like Lou Gentile and Cathy Johnson. He's got good contacts.

And the senate hasn't been fundraising powers.

But more importantly, he has contacts but not the level of Sutton, who will tap into DC, State, and Obama network contacts better

[Rjjr77]

Schiavoni's money problem is deceptive. He may not have a lot in the bank himself, but that's because he was doing a lot of fundraising for the Senate Democrats. People like Lou Gentile and Cathy Johnson. He's got good contacts.

And the senate hasn't been fundraising powers.

But more importantly, he has contacts but not the level of Sutton, who will tap into DC, State, and Obama network contacts better

Actually, I'd argue Schiavoni has better contacts than Sutton, at least among Ohio Democrats.

I'd argue that's definitely not the case, she's raised more money, has more contacts in Cleveland and Akron and has been around the game longer, she also matches Schiavoni in labor times with her long time as a labor lawyer. Schiavoni knows more people in cap square but those folks haven't been giving to dems recently.

[Rjjr77]

Schiavoni's money problem is deceptive. He may not have a lot in the bank himself, but that's because he was doing a lot of fundraising for the Senate Democrats. People like Lou Gentile and Cathy Johnson. He's got good contacts.

And the senate hasn't been fundraising powers.

But more importantly, he has contacts but not the level of Sutton, who will tap into DC, State, and Obama network contacts better

Actually, I'd argue Schiavoni has better contacts than Sutton, at least among Ohio Democrats.

I'd argue that's definitely not the case, she's raised more money, has more contacts in Cleveland and Akron and has been around the game longer, she also matches Schiavoni in labor times with her long time as a labor lawyer. Schiavoni knows more people in cap square but those folks haven't been giving to dems recently.

I'm with X. Schiavoni knows more people across the state, period. Sutton benefits from more national contacts, but the last thing people want now is a beltway insider.

I disagree that he knows more people across the state, his name ID is tiny and while Sutton is a weak campaigner she's been a strong fundraiser. If Schiavoni was raising Tom Patton level funds as a state senator I'd consider you guys more right, but he isn't.  In fact his numbers have been pretty low every cycle, he's raised a lot less in 8 years than Husted or Dewine raise in a quarter

[Rjjr77]

Who'd be stronger: Schiavoni or Whaley?

Schiavoni, Whaley is a bit of a loose cannon

[Rjjr77]

Who'd be stronger: Schiavoni or Whaley?

Schiavoni, Whaley is a bit of a loose cannon

Loose cannons are en vogue these days.

Not if you are a 40 year old white lady.