OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Rjjr77]

Pelanda v. LaRose on the R side, and Reece v. Clyde on the D side could be the biggest dog fight in Ohio. No friendly feelings on either side

[Rjjr77]

State House Majority Leader, Rep. Dorothy Palanda is announcing a run for SOS soon.

LaRose vs. Palanda could get pretty ugly.

What would you rate that?

I think LaRose would ultimately win, but it could become the kind of primary that does some GE damage to whoever wins.  Btw, I really don't see Reece running for SoS, I've heard no talk about that and it'd be a pretty bad career move since (unlike Clyde) she has no chance of wining statewide and most Democrats know it.

Clyde is far from some power house, as for her not being mentioned, she's been rumored to run for years for higher office. As for it being a bad career move, she's got nowhere else to run.
And media outlets have mentioned her:
http://wvxu.org/post/ohio-red-blue-or-purple-2018-election-will-decide#stream/0

http://www.toledoblade.com/Politics/2016/07/27/Ohio-delegation-considers-its-options-for-state-offices-Party-officials-look-to-future-of-its-campaigns.html

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/07/for_ohio_democrats_the_2018_gu.html

[Rjjr77]

Hasn't Ryan done this in every election cycle?

I really don't see why he'd want to stay in the House. I understand not challenged Kasich in 2014, and Portman would have been tough but he has to eventually give one of the offices a shot right?

It's comfortable in that seat, he hasn't had to run a tough election in years.

[Rjjr77]

State House Majority Leader, Rep. Dorothy Palanda is announcing a run for SOS soon.

LaRose vs. Palanda could get pretty ugly.

What would you rate that?

I think LaRose would ultimately win, but it could become the kind of primary that does some GE damage to whoever wins.  Btw, I really don't see Reece running for SoS, I've heard no talk about that and it'd be a pretty bad career move since (unlike Clyde) she has no chance of wining statewide and most Democrats know it.

Clyde is far from some power house, as for her not being mentioned, she's been rumored to run for years for higher office. As for it being a bad career move, she's got nowhere else to run.
And media outlets have mentioned her:
http://wvxu.org/post/ohio-red-blue-or-purple-2018-election-will-decide#stream/0

http://www.toledoblade.com/Politics/2016/07/27/Ohio-delegation-considers-its-options-for-state-offices-Party-officials-look-to-future-of-its-campaigns.html

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/07/for_ohio_democrats_the_2018_gu.html

Clyde is electable statewide, Reece isn't; I never said the former was a power house.  Reece may have nowhere else to run this cycle, but she's fine long-term if she sits one cycle out.

Is Clyde electable statewide? We'll have to see, I'd argue Reece brings more to the table energy and regionally.

how is she fine if she sits a cycle out? She couldn't run for senate until 2024, and there'd be a brand new person in her house seat. She might take a swing at commissioner but that guarantees her nothing for the future.

[Rjjr77]

A new piece in The Plain Dealer notes that, if Renacci does run for Governor, that Republicans Frank LaRose and Mary Taylor live in the district, as well as former Democratic Congresswoman Betty Sutton; who put up a good fight against Renacci in 2012.

As well as state reps Schuring (who ran in '08), Hagan, and Patton. Could be an interesting primary were Renacci to throw in

[Rjjr77]

Tim Ryan just endorsed Jaime Harrison for DNC Chair on his Facebook.

Hard to read anything about this for the state race

[Rjjr77]

Hasn't Ryan done this in every election cycle?

I really don't see why he'd want to stay in the House. I understand not challenged Kasich in 2014, and Portman would have been tough but he has to eventually give one of the offices a shot right?

Not really. Ryan could easily wind up in the mold of Kaptur, that is to say, a House lifer. He got into a safe Congressional seat at the age of 29, what's his actual incentive to seek statewide office? He will, eventually, be Chairman of the Appropriations Committee if he sticks around, or he could wind up as Speaker.

I think speakership is pretty likely. The Progressives are getting much stronger than before, and when the Democrats retake the House there may be a lot of pressure on the Representatives to choose a Speaker paltable to their base. Ryan would be a leading candidate. I do think though, that even a failed run for Governor, if he campaigns decently, could keep him popular and increase his name ID. That would be a net positive.

If he runs for governor he's not getting that seat back. There are two popular Ds salavating for him to step aside

[Rjjr77]

Hasn't Ryan done this in every election cycle?

I really don't see why he'd want to stay in the House. I understand not challenged Kasich in 2014, and Portman would have been tough but he has to eventually give one of the offices a shot right?

Not really. Ryan could easily wind up in the mold of Kaptur, that is to say, a House lifer. He got into a safe Congressional seat at the age of 29, what's his actual incentive to seek statewide office? He will, eventually, be Chairman of the Appropriations Committee if he sticks around, or he could wind up as Speaker.

I think speakership is pretty likely. The Progressives are getting much stronger than before, and when the Democrats retake the House there may be a lot of pressure on the Representatives to choose a Speaker paltable to their base. Ryan would be a leading candidate. I do think though, that even a failed run for Governor, if he campaigns decently, could keep him popular and increase his name ID. That would be a net positive.

If he runs for governor he's not getting that seat back. There are two popular Ds salavating for him to step aside

Just curious, who?

Schiavoni and williams

[Rjjr77]

Tim Ryan just endorsed Jaime Harrison for DNC Chair on his Facebook.

Hard to read anything about this for the state race

Borrowing the #analysis from a convo with Buckeye, but if he were about to run statewide it's unlikely he would A) endorse a DC lobbyist or B) annoy the Ellison contingent in the public by endorsing someone other than him. If this is a calculated rather than a personal move, it indicates he's not running for anything hard anytime soon.

Don't think it makes much of a difference for a statewide election like governor, and I don't think it sways Jay inslee (who is far more important than the dnc in a race like this).

As for the "Ellison contingent" don't think they will care. If Ryan runs there will be no serious challenger to him in a primary, the ODP and the DGA will rally around him.

[Rjjr77]

To contradict some points I made in conversation with Chickenhawk, there is a possibility that it's about race. Say, if Nina Turner runs for Governor or something. And in the press conference where Ryan endorsed Harrison, so did Congresswoman Fudge.

Meanwhile, Mayor Whaley and Governor Strickland have endorsed Buttigieg.

So far the only Ohio DNC member on the record for Perez is ODP Chair Pepper.

Any word on where Sutton falls? She's looking like the strongest D after Ryan, since I think Cordray won't make it back in time to launch a campaign

[Rjjr77]

To contradict some points I made in conversation with Chickenhawk, there is a possibility that it's about race. Say, if Nina Turner runs for Governor or something. And in the press conference where Ryan endorsed Harrison, so did Congresswoman Fudge.

Meanwhile, Mayor Whaley and Governor Strickland have endorsed Buttigieg.

So far the only Ohio DNC member on the record for Perez is ODP Chair Pepper.

Any word on where Sutton falls? She's looking like the strongest D after Ryan, since I think Cordray won't make it back in time to launch a campaign

She's certainly in the mix, but I haven't really heard anything substantial.

Not everyone needs to run for Governor, there are plenty of row offices out there. Sutton for SoS, Cordray run for AG again, Pillich should try for Treasurer again.

There are other people lining up for down ticket races, I severely doubt Cordray or Sutton would eschew other private sector opportunities for down ticket races.

[Rjjr77]

As above. The Dem slate seems to be building to:

Governor: Schiavoni
AG: Dettelbach
SOS: Clyde
Treasurer: Leland
Auditor: Ritenauer

Very NEOH heavy. Pillich for LG might be a good choice. More balanced geographically, and on gender.

How good a candidate is Schiavoni? I would imagine that Governor might help carry the other row offices.

I think the issue is no one knows how good a candidate he is. He's a localized state senator with little to no state name ID who's never had to run s tough race before.

[Rjjr77]

Mary Taylor created her gubernatorial campaign committee today.

[Rjjr77]

OH-GOV 2018 is Tossup. Period. Any party can win this seat in 2018. I think Kasich will be a major factor in this election.

I disagree, it leans R. The two front runners are serious big candidates in the state, and the democrats don't have a candidate of their caliber right now

[Rjjr77]

Yep. Official website and everything. I'm still surprised she has Kasich's official endorsement. That may carry less weight, but it's still meaningful, since she bucked Borges for Timken earlier.

I don't think a Kasich endorsement matters, not without his political apparatus which is all backing dewine

[Rjjr77]

How likely is Nina Turner to run?

Anything is possible. She'd get absolutely smoked

[Rjjr77]

How likely is Nina Turner to run?

Anything is possible. She'd get absolutely smoked

She would. Far too left for the state, and isn't exactly an appealing public speaker, nor could she appeal to Obama-Trump voters or Brown-Kasich voters. OH Dems would be punting if they nominated her.

I'd voted for Husted over Turner in a second (I already did it in 2014).

I'm a big Husted fan.

[Rjjr77]

Democratic Party Chairman, David Pepper, is calling for potential gubernatorial candidates to "get on with it" since the unknown intentions of the bigwigs is keeping lesser known contenders from developing profiles.

Ryan's folks, even though it is now been more than a couple of weeks since is "couple of weeks" statement are saying a decision will come "soon" and Cordray's folks see May as the latest they can jump in to the race. Which means he needs to hurry up and get fired. The decisions of those two alone will seemingly finalize the decisions of Senator Schiavoni, Justice O'Neil, Mayor Williams, and Mayor Whaley. As for Sutton and Pillich, no one really seems to know what their decisions hinge on.

I'm betting Sutton doesn't want to run and lose, so she'll wait for ryan to decide first.

[Rjjr77]

I'm sticking with what my gut has been telling me for some time now: it's going to be Schiavoni. Cordray really seems to prefer being a bureaucrat to being an elected.

I don't think Cordray is in, and never have, even if he gets fired it will most likely be very late to make a run. I think the D's will nominate Sutton, who did leave her federal gig

[Rjjr77]

What do you guys think of Betty Sutton? Says she's considering. If she runs, is it likely she becomes the nominee (assuming Cordray stays out?)

Sutton is most likely the best candidate for the dems at this juncture, she's got a bit of a rep as a lazy campaigner though.

[Rjjr77]

Lazy campaigner is ... not the worst Dems think of Sutton. Also, you've presented a major false equivalency, RJ. Cordray can't choose to leave his job, even if he wants to. Not that I'd be surprised if she ran, given her resignation.

Let's be honest he also isn't running because he wants to be a future speaker of the house

Was about to say, this is really the first major announcement of the 2018 Minority Leader contest.

Or hey, could be Speaker! Who hecking knows?

Personally I think it will be speaker, GOP is over streched, Trump is going full steam ahead on Obamacare repeal while also possiblely putting boots in the ground in Syria, and I just don't see were else the Bernie energy will go other than taking over the dems ala tea party

Why would Ds choose him over someone like Joe Crowley who has widespread support from the caucus?

Crowley's a good 11 years older than Ryan. They can both be minority leader/Speaker.

Just wish we had more Cory Gardners in the party, pols who aren't cowards and actually willing to sacrifice something in order to run.

Cory Gardner isn't in the party, period, thank God.

ION: Schiavoni to officially announce tomorrow.

Not to be a jerk, but why couldn't Cordray resign to run for office? It's a job not indentured servitude. If Cordray decided tomorrow he wanted to quit and come back and run for governor what is stopping him?

Sutton has her issues, but if she's in she's going to be ahead of Schiavoni or O'Neill as the favored candidate.

[Rjjr77]

Lazy campaigner is ... not the worst Dems think of Sutton. Also, you've presented a major false equivalency, RJ. Cordray can't choose to leave his job, even if he wants to. Not that I'd be surprised if she ran, given her resignation.

Let's be honest he also isn't running because he wants to be a future speaker of the house

Was about to say, this is really the first major announcement of the 2018 Minority Leader contest.

Or hey, could be Speaker! Who hecking knows?

Personally I think it will be speaker, GOP is over streched, Trump is going full steam ahead on Obamacare repeal while also possiblely putting boots in the ground in Syria, and I just don't see were else the Bernie energy will go other than taking over the dems ala tea party

Why would Ds choose him over someone like Joe Crowley who has widespread support from the caucus?

Crowley's a good 11 years older than Ryan. They can both be minority leader/Speaker.

Just wish we had more Cory Gardners in the party, pols who aren't cowards and actually willing to sacrifice something in order to run.

Cory Gardner isn't in the party, period, thank God.

ION: Schiavoni to officially announce tomorrow.

Not to be a jerk, but why couldn't Cordray resign to run for office? It's a job not indentured servitude. If Cordray decided tomorrow he wanted to quit and come back and run for governor what is stopping him?

Sutton has her issues, but if she's in she's going to be ahead of Schiavoni or O'Neill as the favored candidate.

I misinterpreted some information about the nature of CFPB Director. It would still be in Cordray's best interest, if he wants to run for Governor, to be fired for standing up to Wall Street and the Trump administration than to resign.

I'm not sure where the lazy campaigner charge comes from. She won a very competitive Democratic primary in '06, and did very well against Renacci in a badly gerrymandered district in '12. However, she had the highest House staff turnover rate for a reason. If she runs, she might honestly have trouble maintaining a campaign apparatus.

Most of the talk about her as a campaigner comes from 10 when operatives I knew were furious about her laziness and felt they had to spend more money to protect her against Ganley, money that would have been better served fighting for Driehaus, Wilson, and even Kilroy.

[Rjjr77]

Sutton to make her intentions known next week.

I'm hearing she's in

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Sutton to make her intentions known next week.

I'm hearing she's in

Gross

She's easily the dem front runner, Husted and Renacci beat her, She beats Taylor, Dewine is a toss up

[Rjjr77]

Sutton to make her intentions known next week.

I'm hearing she's in

Gross

She's easily the dem front runner, Husted and Renacci beat her, She beats Taylor, Dewine is a toss up

How is she easily the Dem front runner over Schiavoni? She's been invisible since 2012.

Schiavoni is invisible to 95% of the state, she represented a larger territory, will be better funded, will have more connections through the county party apparatus, and will have Obama administration connections.