OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Rjjr77]

Am I the only one the who thinks that the Dem Gov Field in OH is pretty good right now?

One of few. It isn't bad, per se. I'm honestly just surprised it's so small.

Small? There's five candidates really 4 major ones about the same size as the Republican field right now. Now none of them are A list candidates but they are credible not a bunch of gadfly's.

I think hes surprised, as am I that with so many "B-C list" candidates there arent more of them. Usually in a race with a bunch of lesser known a huge chunk get in.

I think springer is out and kuncinich is in though

[Rjjr77]

Am I the only one the who thinks that the Dem Gov Field in OH is pretty good right now?

One of few. It isn't bad, per se. I'm honestly just surprised it's so small.

Small? There's five candidates really 4 major ones about the same size as the Republican field right now. Now none of them are A list candidates but they are credible not a bunch of gadfly's.

I think hes surprised, as am I that with so many "B-C list" candidates there arent more of them. Usually in a race with a bunch of lesser known a huge chunk get in.

I think springer is out and kuncinich is in though

This. With Ryan out and Cordray highly unlikely, I'm surprised the floodgates didn't break. There were twenty or so suspected B and C-listers looking at running in such a case, but now we've only got 4. (Kiefer's a D-list candidate.)

I'm also worried Kucinich is going to get in, since he's not dispelling rumors.

Yep, where are the Nina Turners, Armond Budishes, Mike Colemans, Jay Williams, Mike Ashfords, and Tom Sawyers.

[Rjjr77]

Armond Budish would be an A-list candidate, but it's too soon after FitzGerald for a Cuyahoga candidate to lead the ticket.  

Heh. Great minds think alike.

I don't think Budish is an A candidate, maybe B+, certainly best of what's left

[Rjjr77]

Armond Budish would be an A-list candidate, but it's too soon after FitzGerald for a Cuyahoga candidate to lead the ticket.  

Heh. Great minds think alike.

I don't think Budish is an A candidate, maybe B+, certainly best of what's left

Tbh, Budish would be stronger than Cordrey. 

no way. How are you going to sell Budish to the rest of the state? outside of the big 3 what is the appeal?

[Rjjr77]

Maybe I'm a cynic, but Mary Taylor is capitalizing on her sons' opioid addiction to connect with voters.

it seems tasteless

[Rjjr77]

I'm thinking both primary (and general) are lean Husted

But OH posters would obviously know better

I agree. We'll see what the next fundraising numbers are but if husted stays ahead of Dewine as he has so far I think it's his to lose

[Rjjr77]

The early fundraising numbers were bad for DeWine. This is worse. It's still very early yet, but for the primary at least, I agree with RJ. this is Husted's to lose.

I don't want to prognosticate on the general yet.

I mean it's tough to say with the general, but I think we can all agree that Husted would be the democrat's nightmare opponent. While predicting the winner at this juncture is probably a folly, we'd all agree husted would start the favorite against those currently in on the democrat side.

[Rjjr77]

Husted goes in favored. How much, IDK, which is why I don't want to prognosticate on the specifics of the general. At this juncture, best to worst Republican opponent for the Democrats goes:

• Taylor
• Renacci
• DeWine
• Husted

In my opinion, OFC.

Completely agree

[Rjjr77]

Husted goes in favored. How much, IDK, which is why I don't want to prognosticate on the specifics of the general. At this juncture, best to worst Republican opponent for the Democrats goes:

• Taylor
• Renacci
• DeWine
• Husted

In my opinion, OFC.

Completely agree

As do I

more I think about it, there is something special about husted, hes conservative in the right areas for conservatives, moderate  in the right areas for moderates. If he wasn't a white man he'd probably be one of the biggest rising stars in the national republican party

[Rjjr77]

Husted goes in favored. How much, IDK, which is why I don't want to prognosticate on the specifics of the general. At this juncture, best to worst Republican opponent for the Democrats goes:

• Taylor
• Renacci
• DeWine
• Husted

In my opinion, OFC.

Completely agree

As do I

more I think about it, there is something special about husted, hes conservative in the right areas for conservatives, moderate  in the right areas for moderates. If he wasn't a white man he'd probably be one of the biggest rising stars in the national republican party

And Democrats don't mind him that much because we know at the end of the day, he's one of the few Ohio Republicans we can work with.

This  also. I could see him getting dem crossovers depending on the candidate. I actually think if his name is Juan Husted he'd be tapped gop's future

[Rjjr77]

Husted goes in favored. How much, IDK, which is why I don't want to prognosticate on the specifics of the general. At this juncture, best to worst Republican opponent for the Democrats goes:

• Taylor
• Renacci
• DeWine
• Husted

In my opinion, OFC.

Completely agree

As do I

more I think about it, there is something special about husted, hes conservative in the right areas for conservatives, moderate  in the right areas for moderates. If he wasn't a white man he'd probably be one of the biggest rising stars in the national republican party

And Democrats don't mind him that much because we know at the end of the day, he's one of the few Ohio Republicans we can work with.

Why Democrats think we can work with someone who purged 550,000 voters and has been awful for voting rights is beyond me. Am I the only one who remembers fighting for Golden Week in '14?

This is where I diverge, people should be purged if they can't return a card asking them if they want to stay active (btw every sos has done that including Brunner) and I hate golden week. There has to be separation between voting and registration for the actual running of the elections to prepare poll books.

[Rjjr77]

Husted goes in favored. How much, IDK, which is why I don't want to prognosticate on the specifics of the general. At this juncture, best to worst Republican opponent for the Democrats goes:

• Taylor
• Renacci
• DeWine
• Husted

In my opinion, OFC.

Completely agree

As do I

more I think about it, there is something special about husted, hes conservative in the right areas for conservatives, moderate  in the right areas for moderates. If he wasn't a white man he'd probably be one of the biggest rising stars in the national republican party

And Democrats don't mind him that much because we know at the end of the day, he's one of the few Ohio Republicans we can work with.

Why Democrats think we can work with someone who purged 550,000 voters and has been awful for voting rights is beyond me. Am I the only one who remembers fighting for Golden Week in '14?

This is where I diverge, people should be purged if they can't return a card asking them if they want to stay active (btw every sos has done that including Brunner) and I hate golden week. There has to be separation between voting and registration for the actual running of the elections to prepare poll books.

Cards can be missed. When I have clinical depression I don't check my mail. That doesn't mean I don't want to stay active.

If you don't vote (or sign a petition or any political activity) for 5 years you receive a card, if you don't reply to the card you get a second, if you miss that you are placed on inactive, if you then do no political activity for another 3 years you are removed. That seems pretty darn reasonable, regardless of your afflictions.

[Rjjr77]

As far as I'm concerned, the only reason to purge a voter from the rolls is in the rare case of actual voter fraud. Brunner acting in the same way doesn't make me respect Husted more, it makes me respect Brunner less.

I can't disagree on this more, nothing like clogged poll books with hundreds of thousands of duplicates and deceased voters, as well as people who have moved.

[Rjjr77]

ECOT/Charter scandal is growing, with the State Board of Education demanding $60 mil. back, though ECOT claims they can't sustain that kind of financial loss. Accounting for other failing charter schools, this is much more financially significant than Coingate ever was. Not to mention the human cost.

Also, Yost praised ECOT's audits and gave them an award for excellence a while back. Chartergate should get bigger, and I'd be surprised if Dettelbach doesn't work in Yost's ECOT-praise into an ad.

ECOT is not a scandal with any legs right now, because I think most normal people would consider both sides being ridiculous. I'm confident a middle ground will be reached eventually. As for charter schools, they are still a weird issue, that is polarizing and probably is not a real wedge for any large group. Selling it as government waste/corruption seems like a reach to the casual person and may be too hard to sell to voters.

[Rjjr77]

ECOT/Charter scandal is growing, with the State Board of Education demanding $60 mil. back, though ECOT claims they can't sustain that kind of financial loss. Accounting for other failing charter schools, this is much more financially significant than Coingate ever was. Not to mention the human cost.

Also, Yost praised ECOT's audits and gave them an award for excellence a while back. Chartergate should get bigger, and I'd be surprised if Dettelbach doesn't work in Yost's ECOT-praise into an ad.

ECOT is not a scandal with any legs right now, because I think most normal people would consider both sides being ridiculous. I'm confident a middle ground will be reached eventually. As for charter schools, they are still a weird issue, that is polarizing and probably is not a real wedge for any large group. Selling it as government waste/corruption seems like a reach to the casual person and may be too hard to sell to voters.

It shouldn't be a reach since, 1) it's pay-to-play politics, 2) more financially irresponsible than Coingate, and 3) is, in the case of schools like ECOT, setting kids' education back years.

1. Is it, care to explain how in terms that are ready set for an advertisement? You have to get more in the weeds on it than the average person cares to listen
2. See one, coingate was an easy sell, investments went missing.
3. Not really, ECOT is usually a school of last resort, the majority of their students have been dismissed from other schools already, and log in times are not a fair measure of a school like this. Think of your online classes in college, are you logged in for hours? Doesn't mean you aren't completing work. Do they owe some money back? Absolutely. Is that 60 million a ridiculous number? Absolutely. Will this be worked out? Yes.

[Rjjr77]

Former congressman Zack Space is running for Auditor while failed Cincinnati mayoral candidate Rob Richardson is running for Treasurer. Space is a good get for Democrats, though it unfortunately means Lorain Mayor Ritenauer is probably out. Richardson says he was approached about running, which I hope isn't true because Leland is a MUCH better candidate.

Ive been hearing a Sutton/Leland ticket as of late. perhaps thats why?

[Rjjr77]

Evidently, Mary Taylor wasn't official yet? Whatever, she sucks. If anyone is a dark horse for Governor, it's Renacci who's become something of the default Trump candidate.

Mary Taylor is ahead of all other candidates in times she's officially announced she's running for governor

[Rjjr77]

What downballot statewide races are the Ohio dems most likely to win?

Auditor, less because I think space is strong and more because I think Faber isn't.

[Rjjr77]

What downballot statewide races are the Ohio dems most likely to win?

Auditor, less because I think space is strong and more because I think Faber isn't.

But would he be stronger than Leland for Treasurer, in your opinion?

(I'm holding out hope.)

No, Leland is a power fundraiser, I've heard Leland LG talks a lot from D friends. The D's may be considering not putting too much in the treasurers race and focusing on apportionment board. I think Clyde is a terrible candidate to run against, what looks more and more, like LaRose. she's basically the only option there however. Space is solid but not a wow factor to me, you know my opinion on Dettlebach who should probably go after Joyce and have Schiavoni go run against Yost.

[Rjjr77]

What downballot statewide races are the Ohio dems most likely to win?

Auditor, less because I think space is strong and more because I think Faber isn't.

But would he be stronger than Leland for Treasurer, in your opinion?

(I'm holding out hope.)

No, Leland is a power fundraiser, I've heard Leland LG talks a lot from D friends. The D's may be considering not putting too much in the treasurers race and focusing on apportionment board. I think Clyde is a terrible candidate to run against, what looks more and more, like LaRose. she's basically the only option there however. Space is solid but not a wow factor to me, you know my opinion on Dettlebach who should probably go after Joyce and have Schiavoni go run against Yost.

I really don't want Sutton/Leland to be a thing. But I don't know any Sutton supporters in the area, so ...

I haven't heard any talk about Sutton/Leland (thank God), but with such a weak GOP field, I can't imagine the Democrats won't at least make a serious play for Treasurer.

I've heard Sutton/ Leland and Whaley/ Leland. My higher level dem friends have said its a Sutton vs Whaley east vs west battle at this point with schiavoni in a solid third and Pillich ridiculously far behind.

As for treasurer punt, I actually get it, it's a relatively worthless race that's hard to fundraise for and allows them to consolidate up ballot.

[Rjjr77]

My contacts in both my region, and Columbus, see schiavoni as the one falling the most. Suttons out hustling him in the NE and he can't crack into western at all. I've been told if Schiavoni puts up an lethargic financial report it could be an early exit for him.

[Rjjr77]

I think Schiavoni's fundraising is going to be fine. His January report was weak as far as Cash on Hand is concerned, but that doesn't reflect all the money he raised and spent on the Senate Democratic Caucus. Sutton is unfortunately strong, though.

Based on? We haven't seen any kind of big fundraising from him at any point in his career, he's up against a better fundraiser in his own neck of the woods. The Utility workers aren't funding his whole race, and he's raised decent but not great money at individual fundraisers

[Rjjr77]

I think Schiavoni's fundraising is going to be fine. His January report was weak as far as Cash on Hand is concerned, but that doesn't reflect all the money he raised and spent on the Senate Democratic Caucus. Sutton is unfortunately strong, though.

Based on? We haven't seen any kind of big fundraising from him at any point in his career, he's up against a better fundraiser in his own neck of the woods. The Utility workers aren't funding his whole race, and he's raised decent but not great money at individual fundraisers

1: He closed out 2016 having raised over $200k, according to the Secretary of State's website. I'd call that better than decent, given his role. 2: Some State Reps. are considering passing on State Senate runs because they think he'll take all the air out of any potential Senate Dems Caucus fundraising.

200k is not very good for a party leader, guys like Tom Patton and Dave Leland raise 4-5 times as much for state house seats...

[Rjjr77]

OH Supreme Court Justice Bill O'Neill is also claiming that Cordray is planning on running:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/19/richard-cordray-ohio-governor-2018-240729

I believe O'Neill more than Larkin...

Still don't buy it

[Rjjr77]

OH Supreme Court Justice Bill O'Neill is also claiming that Cordray is planning on running:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/19/richard-cordray-ohio-governor-2018-240729

I believe O'Neill more than Larkin...

Still don't buy it

Why are you so skeptical on Cordray's run? The guy has nothing else on his plate if he opts not to run for Governor since there's no way in hell Trump keeps him on as cfpb head. Plus you've been saying back in March that he only had one month left to jump into the race.

because i think its too late for him to jump in the race, I think the deadline has passed for him. They are talking about him declaring in september? too late...

I also think this is Bill O'Neill being Bill O'Neill, hes never been loved by the party as a whole, and said he'd run if Cordray wouldnt, but it looks like an excuse for him not to have to hold up that statement.