OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Rjjr77]

You definitely should not feel that way.

Who's Kasich's candidate?

He has publicly backed Taylor, his LG, in the run up to the race, I dont believe hes formally endorsed, the majority of Kasich's "team" appears to be backing Mike DeWine.

Worth noting that happened after Taylor betrayed Team Kasich when she voted for the new, Trump-approved OH GOP chair, Jane Timken, over long-time Kasich ally, Matt Borges.

In fairness dewines campaign manager is a long time Kasich operative and he was hired prior to that

It's funny, though, given Kasich ran DeWine's people out of OH GOP leadership back in 2010.

Different Dewine. Kevin DeWine was the party chair in 2010, in 2012 Kasich had him ousted, but he wasn't a Mike Dewine loyalist

[Rjjr77]

You definitely should not feel that way.

Who's Kasich's candidate?

He has publicly backed Taylor, his LG, in the run up to the race, I dont believe hes formally endorsed, the majority of Kasich's "team" appears to be backing Mike DeWine.

Worth noting that happened after Taylor betrayed Team Kasich when she voted for the new, Trump-approved OH GOP chair, Jane Timken, over long-time Kasich ally, Matt Borges.

In fairness dewines campaign manager is a long time Kasich operative and he was hired prior to that

It's funny, though, given Kasich ran DeWine's people out of OH GOP leadership back in 2010.

Different Dewine. Kevin DeWine was the party chair in 2010, in 2012 Kasich had him ousted, but he wasn't a Mike Dewine loyalist

He's Mike DeWine's second cousin.

Yes... they were hardly politically connected.

[Rjjr77]

Why doesn't Cordray jump into the race?

I know that he's sworn that he wouldn't voluntarily leave the cfpb, but Trump will likely fire him the day after the Ohio filing as a way of ending his political career for good. The GOP doesn't want Cordray to run and they don't like the cfpb so this strategy would be a way of killing two birds with one stone.

Well 1. He may not want to do it, and 2. Primary democrats are going to hit him and say he gave up and caved to trump

[Rjjr77]

Why doesn't Cordray jump into the race?

I know that he's sworn that he wouldn't voluntarily leave the cfpb, but Trump will likely fire him the day after the Ohio filing as a way of ending his political career for good. The GOP doesn't want Cordray to run and they don't like the cfpb so this strategy would be a way of killing two birds with one stone.

Well 1. He may not want to do it, and 2. Primary democrats are going to hit him and say he gave up and caved to trump

Are there any credible challengers to him? I've heard that he's very popular in Ohio; especially with the progressive base.

Betty Sutton, Joe schiavoni, and Connie pillich are already in, plus Cordray is pro-2nd amendment, which could also bite him in a primary. He may decide to sit this cycle out

[Rjjr77]

Why doesn't Cordray jump into the race?

I know that he's sworn that he wouldn't voluntarily leave the cfpb, but Trump will likely fire him the day after the Ohio filing as a way of ending his political career for good. The GOP doesn't want Cordray to run and they don't like the cfpb so this strategy would be a way of killing two birds with one stone.

Well 1. He may not want to do it, and 2. Primary democrats are going to hit him and say he gave up and caved to trump

Are there any credible challengers to him? I've heard that he's very popular in Ohio; especially with the progressive base.

Betty Sutton, Joe schiavoni, and Connie pillich are already in, plus Cordray is pro-2nd amendment, which could also bite him in a primary. He may decide to sit this cycle out

Democrats can't be pro gun even in the Ohio primaries?

Not to the far left. They made Strickland "evolve". And he didn't have a real primary last year.

[Rjjr77]

You definitely should not feel that way.

Who's Kasich's candidate?

He has publicly backed Taylor, his LG, in the run up to the race, I dont believe hes formally endorsed, the majority of Kasich's "team" appears to be backing Mike DeWine.

Worth noting that happened after Taylor betrayed Team Kasich when she voted for the new, Trump-approved OH GOP chair, Jane Timken, over long-time Kasich ally, Matt Borges.

In fairness dewines campaign manager is a long time Kasich operative and he was hired prior to that

It's funny, though, given Kasich ran DeWine's people out of OH GOP leadership back in 2010.

Different Dewine. Kevin DeWine was the party chair in 2010, in 2012 Kasich had him ousted, but he wasn't a Mike Dewine loyalist

He's Mike DeWine's second cousin.

Yes... they were hardly politically connected.

You're kidding, right?

No, they were never tied together, during Kevin DeWine's time as a state nor as ORP chairman

in fact Kevin DeWine was considered by all to be connected with Husted not Mike DeWine.

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2011/11/as_elections_near_intraparty_f.html

read this maybe get some background on the whole thing, I doubt you are connected closely with all of your Second cousins (i couldnt even name half of mine)

[Rjjr77]

Things have been strangely quiet for the past couple of weeks. I went to an event a while back where both Pillich and Schiavoni spoke. Second time seeing Schiavoni. He's definitely the better speaker, but Pillich is fine. They were both able to get the crowd going. Spoke to some muckety-mucks and they gave Kucinich 80:20 odds on getting in, which is disturbing. Whaley is still quiet, but she certainly seems to be building toward an announcement. Why she's waiting, I don't know. Meanwhile, Jerry Springer is headlining a Democratic dinner in Fremont next week.

Whaley may be waiting until after the primary, it may have a lot to do with transitioning her campaign committee to a state level one. All I hear is she is in.

Springer will be in Fremont, but he isn't running.

[Rjjr77]

Jon Husted, who hasn't announced he's running for governor, received an endorsement from the Ohio University College Republicans.

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2017/04/conservative_group_throws_its.html

[Rjjr77]

Jon Husted, who hasn't announced he's running for governor, received an endorsement from the Ohio University College Republicans.

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2017/04/conservative_group_throws_its.html

If it was the College Republicans of Ohio, that might mean something. But there are probably all of 10  college Republicans at OU. The only school they probably do worse at is Oberlin.

It appears from their Facebook to be a fairly large and active chapter.

[Rjjr77]

Jon Husted, who hasn't announced he's running for governor, received an endorsement from the Ohio University College Republicans.

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2017/04/conservative_group_throws_its.html

If it was the College Republicans of Ohio, that might mean something. But there are probably all of 10  college Republicans at OU. The only school they probably do worse at is Oberlin.

It appears from their Facebook to be a fairly large and active chapter.

Sure. Hyperbole aside, Athens is not a place to look to for predicting Republican success.

Rep. Edwards says hi.

[Rjjr77]

Jon Husted, who hasn't announced he's running for governor, received an endorsement from the Ohio University College Republicans.

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2017/04/conservative_group_throws_its.html

If it was the College Republicans of Ohio, that might mean something. But there are probably all of 10  college Republicans at OU. The only school they probably do worse at is Oberlin.

It appears from their Facebook to be a fairly large and active chapter.

Sure. Hyperbole aside, Athens is not a place to look to for predicting Republican success.

Rep. Edwards says hi.

That was a fluke. The Ohio House Democratic Caucus really screwed up interfering in the primary on behalf of Sarah Grace and asking Eddie Smith to step down. Smith would have most likely won.

I was teasing a bit, fluke? Not with his big margin, she also spent a bit more. Athens is in general a more liberal area, but to call it a flukes a bit premature. They did vote for Jimmy Stewart too in the mid 2000s

[Rjjr77]

Jon Husted, who hasn't announced he's running for governor, received an endorsement from the Ohio University College Republicans.

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2017/04/conservative_group_throws_its.html

If it was the College Republicans of Ohio, that might mean something. But there are probably all of 10  college Republicans at OU. The only school they probably do worse at is Oberlin.

It appears from their Facebook to be a fairly large and active chapter.

Sure. Hyperbole aside, Athens is not a place to look to for predicting Republican success.

Rep. Edwards says hi.

That was a fluke. The Ohio House Democratic Caucus really screwed up interfering in the primary on behalf of Sarah Grace and asking Eddie Smith to step down. Smith would have most likely won.

I was teasing a bit, fluke? Not with his big margin, she also spent a bit more. Athens is in general a more liberal area, but to call it a flukes a bit premature. They did vote for Jimmy Stewart too in the mid 2000s.

Grace was a terrible speaker and her margins inside the Athens County part of the district were sub-par. Between heavy right wing shifts in most of Appalachia, her ineptitude, and anti-establishmentarianism, maybe Edwards would have won regardless, but it's still not a county to extrapolate Republican headwinds from. The state legislative districts in Ohio are almost as bad as they are at the Congressional level, but if there's a seat to take back in '18, it's the 94th.

I actually don't agree with you about the state districts being heavily gerrymandered, they are some but not to the level everyone likes to blame them for. Quite a bit of it is bad campaigning and bad candidates (3rd district, 43rd district, 89th, and 37th come to the top of my head where the democrats have run bad candidates in winnable districts, and that's without really looking)

Edwards being a local football star helped as well

[Rjjr77]

I actually think way too many people give credit to gerrymandering, it's a factor, but it's rarely as egregious as everyone claims it is (Illinois congressional is, and Ohio's is bad, but it's also what congressional Ds wanted at the time to dump Kucinich). I honestly feel the democrats complete inaction on recruiting good candidates has been their downfall for some time, let's not forget they had the house not that long ago. And it's an epidemic that has trended statewide, David Pepper, Mary O'shaugnessy, Kevin Boyce, Nina Turner, Ed Fitzgerald, have all been pretty awful recruits for statewide races.

I'll put it this way, the ODP has under Chris redfern and now David pepper been a dumpster fire due to terrible management from the top.

[Rjjr77]

I actually think way too many people give credit to gerrymandering, it's a factor, but it's rarely as egregious as everyone claims it is (Illinois congressional is, and Ohio's is bad, but it's also what congressional Ds wanted at the time to dump Kucinich). I honestly feel the democrats complete inaction on recruiting good candidates has been their downfall for some time, let's not forget they had the house not that long ago. And it's an epidemic that has trended statewide, David Pepper, Mary O'shaugnessy, Kevin Boyce, Nina Turner, Ed Fitzgerald, have all been pretty awful recruits for statewide races.

David Pepper wasn't bad a bad recruit for Auditor in 2010 by any stretch of the imagination.

Yes, local elected officials are almost always bad recruits, it's a reward for being from a family of massive donors, rather than courting someone with experience at a state level. They had better candidates, plenty of them.

They basically recruited him to be a cash cow for the rest of the ticket.

[Rjjr77]

2016 was obviously a sh**t year for Democrats around the nation. I don't think Pepper's been around enough to really deserve blame. Though we'll see how '18 goes.

Not the Dayton piece, but there were roughly 20 competitive elections last year, according to the Dispatch. Certainly, we need more Lou Gentiles.

Pepper wasn't the best candidate from 2014 (dark horse vote for Carney, not Pillich), but the wasn't the worst by any means. You're not wrong about him being on the ticket to help raise money, but that doesn't mean down ticket office holders are bad candidates. Hamilton County was purple when Pepper got on the Board of Commissioners.

By my count there's been 4 statewide elected officials in 40 years who ran from a local office state wide and won. In general they tend to be bad choices.

[Rjjr77]

2016 was obviously a sh**t year for Democrats around the nation. I don't think Pepper's been around enough to really deserve blame. Though we'll see how '18 goes.

Not the Dayton piece, but there were roughly 20 competitive elections last year, according to the Dispatch. Certainly, we need more Lou Gentiles.

Pepper wasn't the best candidate from 2014 (dark horse vote for Carney, not Pillich), but the wasn't the worst by any means. You're not wrong about him being on the ticket to help raise money, but that doesn't mean down ticket office holders are bad candidates. Hamilton County was purple when Pepper got on the Board of Commissioners.

By my count there's been 4 statewide elected officials in 40 years who ran from a local office state wide and won. In general they tend to be bad choices.

Qualify "local" office? Husted was in the state legislature and when Mary Taylor was elected Auditor, she was also a state representative. Yost was a County Prosecutor. Cordray was County Treasurer. Jennette B. Bradley launched from Columbus City Council. And Joe Deters was also a County Prosecutor. That's at least 4 in the last decade and a half. That can't be it.

Local office qualifies as county or city level positions with no prior experience at a state or federal level. (I should have been clearer about this part)

Yost, Deters, Brunner, and withrow are the only four I can think of.

I don't count LGs as we all know they aren't elected on their own in Ohio.

[Rjjr77]

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/elections/2017/04/14/jim-renacci-fires-campaign-manager-after-less-than-a-month/100467516/

[Rjjr77]

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/elections/2017/04/14/jim-renacci-fires-campaign-manager-after-less-than-a-month/100467516/

The link doesn't work

Works for me... You have Adblock on?

[Rjjr77]

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/elections/2017/04/14/jim-renacci-fires-campaign-manager-after-less-than-a-month/100467516/

The link doesn't work

Works for me... You have Adblock on?

I do, and it still worked... Pretty surprised he hired the guy behind Greitens win.

and fired him

[Rjjr77]

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/elections/2017/04/14/jim-renacci-fires-campaign-manager-after-less-than-a-month/100467516/

The link doesn't work

Works for me... You have Adblock on?

I do, and it still worked... Pretty surprised he hired the guy behind Greitens win.

and fired him

Gosh, I'm on auto-pilot today. That's what I meant.

It's cool I'm in a weird mood today too. Happens to the best of us

[Rjjr77]

Politico feature on Cordray & the race

Another benefit to Cordrey running would be that at least some folks like Schiavoni, Sutton, Pillich, etc would probably drop down to row offices (although the Treasurer nomination is probably Leland's *if* he wants it). 

On a different note, the ODP needs to find a new a AG candidate.  Much as I hate to admit it, I was wrong about Diettelbach.  He got off to a very promising start extremely early, but he seems to have already fizzled out.  However, Dave Yost is a decidedly "meh" Republican recruit and as a result, OH AG remains a great pickup opportunity if we can recruit a solid candidate.

Do I get to say I told you so?

[Rjjr77]

I actually think way too many people give credit to gerrymandering, it's a factor, but it's rarely as egregious as everyone claims it is (Illinois congressional is, and Ohio's is bad, but it's also what congressional Ds wanted at the time to dump Kucinich). I honestly feel the democrats complete inaction on recruiting good candidates has been their downfall for some time, let's not forget they had the house not that long ago. And it's an epidemic that has trended statewide, David Pepper, Mary O'shaugnessy, Kevin Boyce, Nina Turner, Ed Fitzgerald, have all been pretty awful recruits for statewide races.

I'll put it this way, the ODP has under Chris redfern and now David pepper been a dumpster fire due to terrible management from the top.

Undervaluing gerrymandering is grotesquely wrong in Ohio. Not should one EVER separate it from candidate recruitment. The opposition isn't going to recruit good candidates, let alone well financed ones, to run in a sacrificial lamb district. Not to mention wheedling down the number of opposition legislative seat holders weakens the opposition's bench overall.

The problem with this statement is I believe everyone is over valuing gerrymandering, republicans are winning state house and state senate districts well out of where they should be.

House Districts with large D advantages like state house 5 and 89, as well as plenty of others which should be more competitive, like 3, 19, 55, 36, 37, 38, 94, 28, 29, 43, are not blowouts due to gerrymandering, these are close districts that democrats have not really competed in years

[Rjjr77]

I actually think way too many people give credit to gerrymandering, it's a factor, but it's rarely as egregious as everyone claims it is (Illinois congressional is, and Ohio's is bad, but it's also what congressional Ds wanted at the time to dump Kucinich). I honestly feel the democrats complete inaction on recruiting good candidates has been their downfall for some time, let's not forget they had the house not that long ago. And it's an epidemic that has trended statewide, David Pepper, Mary O'shaugnessy, Kevin Boyce, Nina Turner, Ed Fitzgerald, have all been pretty awful recruits for statewide races.

I'll put it this way, the ODP has under Chris redfern and now David pepper been a dumpster fire due to terrible management from the top.

Undervaluing gerrymandering is grotesquely wrong in Ohio. Not should one EVER separate it from candidate recruitment. The opposition isn't going to recruit good candidates, let alone well financed ones, to run in a sacrificial lamb district. Not to mention wheedling down the number of opposition legislative seat holders weakens the opposition's bench overall.

The problem with this statement is I believe everyone is over valuing gerrymandering, republicans are winning state house and state senate districts well out of where they should be.

House Districts with large D advantages like state house 5 and 89, as well as plenty of others which should be more competitive, like 3, 19, 55, 36, 37, 38, 94, 28, 29, 43, are not blowouts due to gerrymandering, these are close districts that democrats have not really competed in years

The 89th I'll give you as being competitive, but no way on the 5th. It's a single county (Columbiana) district that Obama lost twice by almost 8 points and even Sherrod Brown lost against Mandel. In the short term it's worth noting Trump carried it by over 40 points. At the local state house level it's R lean at least.

I think you are similarly overstating the competitiveness of some of the districts such as the 19th. More to the point, while there are no reasons Democrats can't be competitive in single county swing districts like the 3rd (Wood County), the "unique" mapping of districts such as the 19th or 55th make it at least tilt R in areas where, but for surgical drawing of boundary lines, Republicans generally would make little to know headway.

Plus, once one ensures control of the state legislature with such a map, don't ever underestimate the statewide fundraising advantage that gives the party in charge, which translates to wins in semi-competitive district. 

Sorry, but when the Republican Party writes a map that is baldly unfair and undemocratic statewide, I'm not going to give kudos and excuse it just for winning a few seats Democrats are still compitative in.

Ah how short is your memory. Columbiana county may have gone against Obama, but it elected D state rep in 2006, 2008, and 2012. This time? A joke candidate for the democrats.

And sure the 19th and the 55th tilt R with this map, so why then were the democrats literally unable to recruit a candidate in 55.

And that tilt R district 55? It went 67% for the democrat in 2012.


The 19th also featured an absolute joke of a candidate for the democrats. You can't always blame gerrymandering when a party can't find a candidate in a competitive district like 55 and 19.

Gerrymandering exists, absolutely, but the sheer ineptitude in candidate recruitment is the reason the republicans have super majorities, they are winning in democrat districts at this point.

[Rjjr77]

I actually think way too many people give credit to gerrymandering, it's a factor, but it's rarely as egregious as everyone claims it is (Illinois congressional is, and Ohio's is bad, but it's also what congressional Ds wanted at the time to dump Kucinich). I honestly feel the democrats complete inaction on recruiting good candidates has been their downfall for some time, let's not forget they had the house not that long ago. And it's an epidemic that has trended statewide, David Pepper, Mary O'shaugnessy, Kevin Boyce, Nina Turner, Ed Fitzgerald, have all been pretty awful recruits for statewide races.

I'll put it this way, the ODP has under Chris redfern and now David pepper been a dumpster fire due to terrible management from the top.

Undervaluing gerrymandering is grotesquely wrong in Ohio. Not should one EVER separate it from candidate recruitment. The opposition isn't going to recruit good candidates, let alone well financed ones, to run in a sacrificial lamb district. Not to mention wheedling down the number of opposition legislative seat holders weakens the opposition's bench overall.

The problem with this statement is I believe everyone is over valuing gerrymandering, republicans are winning state house and state senate districts well out of where they should be.

House Districts with large D advantages like state house 5 and 89, as well as plenty of others which should be more competitive, like 3, 19, 55, 36, 37, 38, 94, 28, 29, 43, are not blowouts due to gerrymandering, these are close districts that democrats have not really competed in years

The 89th I'll give you as being competitive, but no way on the 5th. It's a single county (Columbiana) district that Obama lost twice by almost 8 points and even Sherrod Brown lost against Mandel. In the short term it's worth noting Trump carried it by over 40 points. At the local state house level it's R lean at least.

I think you are similarly overstating the competitiveness of some of the districts such as the 19th. More to the point, while there are no reasons Democrats can't be competitive in single county swing districts like the 3rd (Wood County), the "unique" mapping of districts such as the 19th or 55th make it at least tilt R in areas where, but for surgical drawing of boundary lines, Republicans generally would make little to know headway.

Plus, once one ensures control of the state legislature with such a map, don't ever underestimate the statewide fundraising advantage that gives the party in charge, which translates to wins in semi-competitive district. 

Sorry, but when the Republican Party writes a map that is baldly unfair and undemocratic statewide, I'm not going to give kudos and excuse it just for winning a few seats Democrats are still compitative in.

Ah how short is your memory. Columbiana county may have gone against Obama, but it elected D state rep in 2006, 2008, and 2012. This time? A joke candidate for the democrats.

And sure the 19th and the 55th tilt R with this map, so why then were the democrats literally unable to recruit a candidate in 55.

And that tilt R district 55? It went 67% for the democrat in 2012.


The 19th also featured an absolute joke of a candidate for the democrats. You can't always blame gerrymandering when a party can't find a candidate in a competitive district like 55 and 19.

Gerrymandering exists, absolutely, but the sheer ineptitude in candidate recruitment is the reason the republicans have super majorities, they are winning in democrat districts at this point.

Incumbancy has advantages for both parties. Taking the 5th in Columbiana County as an example, should we assume that Jim Hood being repeatedly re-elected as Attorney General shows MS is a lean-D state?

Again, enforced majorities create huge fund-raising advantages which affect every legislative race, which severely affects candidate recruitment. Those with expertise in gerrymandering are the first to crow about it (privately). Have the state Dems screwed up some recruitment opportunities? Sure. Could they break the super-majority (forget the majority) if they got their act together? Probably not without without all the cards going right and drawing an inside straight on election day. And THE reason for that is the district map.

Incumbency has its advantage? Not in the 5th where incumbents lost in 10, 12, and 14.

The democrats lost bad this past election in a +2 R district, +1 R district, a +4R district, and a +6 D district. All in open seats. Throw in the 5 districts republicans held with D partisan advantages those are 9 seats the dems should have been able to be competitive in, in all of them they recruited bad candidates and lost.

There will be 6 seats the democrats have advantages this cycle that are republican, those 3 first time incumbents, as well as around 5 other open Seats with PVIs at R +4 or lower. That's 14 competitive races the democrats could easily win any given year, that often, they don't even compete in.

[Rjjr77]

Renacci is reporting over $2 mil. raised since he launched his campaign.

In Local News: Cincinnati and Columbus are both having municipal primaries today. Two WFP candidates running for Council are expected to get crushed in Columbus, while there's a very ugly Mayoral election building up in Cincinnati.

2 million in Pledges, not actual money