2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[UncleSam]

UM/Big Sky MT-AL Poll:

36% Kathleen Williams (D)
35% Matt Rosendale (R)
20% Corey Stapleton (R)
3% Joe Dooling (R)
2% Matt Rains (D)
2% Tom Winter (D)
2% Timothy Johnson (R)

http://bit.ly/2LVT06u

So basically Williams needs to hope for a lot of infighting between Rosendale and Stapleton

[UncleSam]

^Looks like Sabato is moving PA-17 to Likely D:

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1189259146987737088

PAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA *breathes* HAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAA

Trump won the district by a few points and Parnell is a credible challenger. There’s no justification for rating a Trump 2016 district that is being contested Safe D, no matter how much you want you have relations with Connor Lamb

[UncleSam]

Tbh I’m not convinced that each dollar matters as much as the next. Obviously it’s nice to have a COH advantage but how much do a few extra ad buys really get you? I’d much rather be ahead like 4 million to 1 million than 20 to 10, even though the raw gap in the latter two numbers is larger.

I wonder if anyone has done a study on this, or on the efficacy of spending in politics in general.

[UncleSam]

MN-07 should be up near the top and TX-07 replaces entirely with IA-02. CA-21 shouldn’t be in the top 20, and instead PA-01 or TX-10/21/31

PA-01 is a question mark. The one recruit who had promise dropped out, so now who knows who the winner of the primary will be, we'll have to see how much $$ they raise too bc right now it's not looking good for the Dems. It's a presidential year though so that could help offset Fitz's advantage

Scott Wallace was one of the single worst disaster artist candidates in 2018 and he still nearly won. Since as of now the GCB indicates 2020 to be as Democratic friendly as 2018, that seat would be in my Top 20 for that reason alone.

It’s hard to believe that 2020 will be as lopsided a house vote as 2018. Even going off of the GCB at this point in the 2018 cycle Dems generally had double digit leads. Still, top 20 seems reasonable even with the big recruiting question mark for Dems there.

[UncleSam]

It’s hard to believe that 2020 will be as lopsided a house vote as 2018. Even going off of the GCB at this point in the 2018 cycle Dems generally had double digit leads. Still, top 20 seems reasonable even with the big recruiting question mark for Dems there.

With the economy imploding and Trump completely bumbling through a pandemic, seems very possible that Republicans will have a bad year.

Oh it is extremely likely Republicans will have a bad year. There’s a lot of room between bad and 2018-esque wipeout though