2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 18, 2024, 06:44:21 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3  (Read 131294 times)
UncleSam
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,525


« on: October 11, 2018, 12:40:47 PM »

Statistical deadhead in the RCP average!
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html

Also Sinema is only up less than 1 percent in the average in the Arizona race!

Weren't you the one who was gloating about how Trump's approval rating was at 44% on the RCP average and anticipating that it would continue to climb?
If Trump is at 44 it means he is really at 50. He won with like a 40 percent favorable rating and got 46 percent of the vote.

Against an opponent with favorables only a couple points above his, give or take.

There is nothing special about Trump winning with those low favorables, and the only takeaway from that race is that if an unpopular candidate wants to win, they need to make sure they draw an opponent who is at least almost as unpopular as them, if not more. So I'd say your calculations are off.
Of course it is special lol, he won with lower favorables than any other president. Part of it was Clinton but part of it was that there is a large contingent of people in this country who disapprove of Trump but vote almost indistinguishably from those who approve of him (think Jeff Flake type Republicans).

He had a 61% disapproval in the state of Wisconsin the night he won Wisconsin. The notion that all those who disapprove of Trump will refuse to vote for him is silly.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.025 seconds with 12 queries.