UncleSam
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,523
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« on: August 22, 2018, 12:45:35 PM » |
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Are people seriously surprised that the midwestern incumbents aren’t going to win by thirty points each like some troll hacks on this forum have been memeing lol. Of course a mere two point win is extremely unlikely, but unless you seriously thought Walker was going to get blown out (which was always silly), it never made much sense to think this would be a safe D race post the primaries.
It’s still Likely D and Baldwin should win by 6-10 in the end, but there won’t be that many split ticket voters, and the governors race remains a tossup. That alone will keep the senate race relatively competitive.
Of course their LV screen seems to be very restrictive as well. Baldwin +8 among RV makes a bit more sense though I’m curious whether they have any sort of D surge model while incorporating their LV screen - I’d bet that would give a true sense of the current state of the race (I’d bet it would be about Baldwin +6, with Walker and Evers roughly tied).
Anyway Marquette is a high quality pollster but their LV screen probably needs some tweaking.
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